Who is going be the first fantasy pick of 2006? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is going be the first fantasy pick of 2006?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby Sultans of Squat » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:53 pm

If I get the #1 pick next year, I'll go w/ ARod. I'm a believer in the argument about depth at each position. Furthermore, the Cards lineup just doesn't look as promising next year while the Yankees will still be the Yankees -- and what if Giambi is really back near to old form??

Maybe in a couple more years when we can actually see a noticeable decline in ARod, then I'll switch away from ARod. By then, maybe it will be Roberts though. :D

Personally, I don't want the #1 pick since ARod's not a SS anymore. If I had it, I might want to trade down a few spots, if possible. :D I'd rather let someone else fight over it and make mistakes than just make the obvious pick myself, if I can get an earlier 2nd round pick coming back the other way plus maybe an extra 5th rounder or so, that would probably be great.
Sultans of Squat
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 644
(Past Year: 11)
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby The Cow » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:58 am

Just a reminder the pick should be Bobby Abreu. Many of you keep pointing out the value of steals in determining who should go #1 between AROD and Pujols. But Abreu is once again flying under the radar doing his 30/40 thing. aAbreu will steal 40 bags as opposed to Pujols and Arods say 15. Sure Bobby won't hit as many homers 35 to say 45, but those 40 bags go a long way. When you consider that the league leader in a fantasy league has about 260 HRs and the league leader in steals about 130. So 40 steals is about 30% of what you need to win the category. Whereas 45 homers is about 17% of what you need to win the category. Factor in Abreu's 35 homeruns (14% of what you need to win the category) as opposed to the 15 bags for the overrated 2 (11%) of what youneed to win the category and clearly Abreu is the DOMINANT FORCE in fantasy baseball.

P.S. Feel free to draft Pujols and AROD before I draft Abreu that is what most of the clones will do.

Cow
Give Snakes his due!!!! Snakes deserves the fantasy expert icon!!! Go Snakes!!!!
The Cow
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1754
Joined: 12 May 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Eating refried beans

Postby Sultans of Squat » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:34 am

The Cow wrote:Just a reminder the pick should be Bobby Abreu. Many of you keep pointing out the value of steals in determining who should go #1 between AROD and Pujols. But Abreu is once again flying under the radar doing his 30/40 thing. aAbreu will steal 40 bags as opposed to Pujols and Arods say 15. Sure Bobby won't hit as many homers 35 to say 45, but those 40 bags go a long way. When you consider that the league leader in a fantasy league has about 260 HRs and the league leader in steals about 130. So 40 steals is about 30% of what you need to win the category. Whereas 45 homers is about 17% of what you need to win the category. Factor in Abreu's 35 homeruns (14% of what you need to win the category) as opposed to the 15 bags for the overrated 2 (11%) of what youneed to win the category and clearly Abreu is the DOMINANT FORCE in fantasy baseball.

P.S. Feel free to draft Pujols and AROD before I draft Abreu that is what most of the clones will do.

Cow


Very good point although I imagine both ARod and Pujols will also usually have more R and RBI than Abreu (as they do right now), so while I'll agree somewhat w/ your analysis about the HR vs SB issue, I think the R and RBI factors should be at least enough to balance out the HR vs SB advantage that Abreu has. And honestly, I can't take anyone seriously who thinks Pujols will normally have as many SBs as ARod -- the current situation is just a fluke. Also, I would actually expect ARod to finish w/ more like 20 SBs, if you really expect Abreu to finish w/ 40, his seasonal best from last year -- and also, I don't think you should expect Abreu to have more than 30 HR if you only expect 45 for ARod and Pujols.

Anyway, Abreu can certainly be close enough. That's why I said I'd rather trade down from #1 if I could get an earlier 2nd rounder plus an extra 5th rounder or so. :D

BTW, I drafted Abreu #6 overall in my non-keeper league this year, sandwiched between Manny and Tejada, and I somehow still landed Ortiz in the 2nd round and then Chavez in the 3rd round. :D I'm winning that league so far although the race is tighter than I'd like -- in part because there's an add/drop limit that restricts me more than other folks and in part because nobody seems willing to trade even when I offer up Carlos Lee for pitching help.
Sultans of Squat
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 644
(Past Year: 11)
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Laean » Mon Jul 25, 2005 4:30 am

The Cow wrote:Just a reminder the pick should be Bobby Abreu. Many of you keep pointing out the value of steals in determining who should go #1 between AROD and Pujols. But Abreu is once again flying under the radar doing his 30/40 thing. aAbreu will steal 40 bags as opposed to Pujols and Arods say 15. Sure Bobby won't hit as many homers 35 to say 45, but those 40 bags go a long way. When you consider that the league leader in a fantasy league has about 260 HRs and the league leader in steals about 130. So 40 steals is about 30% of what you need to win the category. Whereas 45 homers is about 17% of what you need to win the category. Factor in Abreu's 35 homeruns (14% of what you need to win the category) as opposed to the 15 bags for the overrated 2 (11%) of what youneed to win the category and clearly Abreu is the DOMINANT FORCE in fantasy baseball.

P.S. Feel free to draft Pujols and AROD before I draft Abreu that is what most of the clones will do.

Cow


pujols and arod will beat abreu in runs, homers, rbis, and avg - which offsets any advantage abreu had with his 40 SBs in my opinion.

as for your "that is what most of the clones will do" crack, i don't get why you felt the need to throw that on and diminish a previously well thought out post.
Laean
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2595
Joined: 16 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:01 am

The Cow wrote:I will take the most complete player in fantasy baseball. The legend himself, BOBBY ABREU!!!!!!! Drafting him 1st gives you some flexibility come draft day. There is not a player in baseball that helps you in all 5 categories the way Abreu does.

stat line should be about like this:
.300 110 35 120 40

Those are the numbers of the best player in fantasy and the most underrated!?!?!?!?!

I pity the fool that drafted Carlos Beltran over him this year and most did, not me.

BOBBY ABREU easy choice


Tell that to the guys who drafted Carlos Beltran in the Top 3 this year, and then go draft Pujols.
Image
bigh0rt
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 24818
(Past Year: 322)
Joined: 3 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Crowding The Plate

Postby mamorris » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:33 am

The Cow wrote: When you consider that the league leader in a fantasy league has about 260 HRs and the league leader in steals about 130...


Be careful with that style of argument. Those numbers seem about right, but it doesn't mean a steal is worth twice as much as a home run. What's more important is how close together the teams are in these categories. If you're in a roto league, check out your standings. I'm willing to bet that the distance from 2nd to 2nd-last is pretty much the same for home runs as it is for steals. (I wouldn't use the top and bottom scores because they can sometimes give weird results where somebody has completely ditched or stacked up in a category. You could use standard deviation I guess, but this is a decent quick-and-dirty guide.)

What this means is you can basically gain as many points from an extra HR as you would from an extra steal, which would make them roughly equal in value. As others have pointed out though, you conveniently neglected to mention the other 3 categories, where Abreu lags behind Pujols by a fair way. Don't get me wrong, I like Abreu, but he's no #1.
mamorris
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 299
Joined: 8 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Basketball

Postby Osk » Mon Jul 25, 2005 10:01 am

weeks
Aces, baby!!!
Image
Osk Beginner
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 80
Joined: 30 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Postby go_jays_go » Mon Jul 25, 2005 10:16 am

Osk wrote:weeks


No chance. Maybe in bizzaro world.

The kid is good, but he's not going in the first round ;-7
Image
go_jays_go
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 10462
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Toronto, Canada

Postby ensanimal » Mon Jul 25, 2005 10:33 am

go_jays_go wrote:
Osk wrote:weeks


No chance. Maybe in bizzaro world.

The kid is good, but he's not going in the first round ;-7.....yet






;-D
ensanimal
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeHockey ModPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 10622
(Past Year: 108)
Joined: 14 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Tim Horton's

Postby Osk » Mon Jul 25, 2005 10:43 am

i was obviously joking about weeks..

i'd definitely go with pujos.. he's younger, has a better BA... doesn't slump as much..

obviously, you can't really go wrong with either pujos or a-rod.. and vlade when he's healthy..

as for position scarcity, it is true that there is more depth at 1b.. however, if you're a savvy owner (which i'm assuming most of you are) that shouldn't really be a problem.. i mean, my first two picks this year were Rolen and Thome :~( that's right.. a 3b and 1b.. even though they're on the DL, my team isn't missing a beat, as I picked up ensberg off waivers and traded for Delgado (and got shelton off waivers). even at 2b, which is a lot more scarce than 1b or 3b, i ended up with giles weeks and vidro.. honestly, if you're a good owner, you can find players at most positions. therefore, draft the best player at #1 regardless of position.. that player would be... PUJOS.
Aces, baby!!!
Image
Osk Beginner
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 80
Joined: 30 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact