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Wrong about Dontrelle

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Wrong about Dontrelle

Postby BobbyRoberto » Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:24 pm

In a recent Dontrelle Willis thread, I supported him, despite his two recent crap starts. Well, another 7 earned runs allowed so far tonight (in a pitcher's park--SF), and I'm here to admit I was wrong. He's a piece. He stinks. I hate the sight of him.
Roger Angell: I was talking with Bob Gibson and I said: 'Are you always this competitive?' He said: 'Oh, I think so. I got a three-year old daughter, and I've played about 500 games of tic-tac-toe with her and she hasn't beat me yet.'
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Postby EnFuego » Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:26 pm

Welcome to the light...even though I just don't get this guy...he does so well then he just dies out...I hope he gets his act together for the next season...
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Postby Big Pimpin » Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:30 pm

You just have to learn how to sell high...
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:40 pm

A case of lack of stamina over a long season. The track record on Willis is so clear cut, most fantasy players are aware of it.
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Postby baseballnewb » Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:48 pm

It has nothing to do with his track record or his usage this year. Hitters hit .300 off of willis from mid may to the end of June, his GB ratio wasn't anywhere near high enough to support his HR rate. He was a disaster waiting to happen 6 weeks ago when people were still high on him. It has nothing to do with 2nd half slumps, it has everything to do with secondary numbers showing a player is about to collapse. If you are looking at ERA to judge a pitcher you will never win a competitive fantasy league, you need to look at the numbers behind the ERA and if you had, you'd have known willis was due for a collapse.
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Postby BobbyRoberto » Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:53 pm

I agree that his number didn't match his peripherals a month ago, and I knew he wasn't going to have a sub-3.00 ERA all year, but to get rocked for 23 earned runs in 14 innings over his last 3 starts is wayyyyy beyond what I'd expected as far as "regression to the mean" goes.

What I'm saying is, I knew he'd regress but this is some serious regressing going on right here. I don't think anyone could have predicted this kind of smackdown he's had the last 3 starts. I think it would have been easy to say he'd have an ERA in the low-4.00's from here on out, but not an ERA of 14.79 in 3 starts.
Roger Angell: I was talking with Bob Gibson and I said: 'Are you always this competitive?' He said: 'Oh, I think so. I got a three-year old daughter, and I've played about 500 games of tic-tac-toe with her and she hasn't beat me yet.'
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Postby baseballnewb » Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:54 pm

I agree with that, I did not expect anywhere near this level of collapse, almost makes me think he's injured.
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Postby toofunnyy » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:33 am

McKeon is a moron.

You don't let a guy who wears out pitch CGs. Yes I understand pitch counts. But each inning is another warm up, another cool off on the bench, then back up. The fact he has pitched 8+ innings 7 times is insane. He should be yanked out in the 6th/7th inning regardless of pitch count. You ride your guys hard in august/sept when you need them. Not April and May.

He'll be fired tomorrow anyway.
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Postby BobbyRoberto » Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:11 am

Okay, I'm calmer now. It's just so frustrating to see your pitcher get rocked 3 times in a row. Anyway, what are any Dontrelle owners doing out there? Anyone thinking about dropping him? Can he be expected to turn it around anytime soon?
Roger Angell: I was talking with Bob Gibson and I said: 'Are you always this competitive?' He said: 'Oh, I think so. I got a three-year old daughter, and I've played about 500 games of tic-tac-toe with her and she hasn't beat me yet.'
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Postby thehat » Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:47 am

toofunnyy wrote:McKeon is a moron.

You don't let a guy who wears out pitch CGs. Yes I understand pitch counts. But each inning is another warm up, another cool off on the bench, then back up. The fact he has pitched 8+ innings 7 times is insane. He should be yanked out in the 6th/7th inning regardless of pitch count. You ride your guys hard in august/sept when you need them. Not April and May.

He'll be fired tomorrow anyway.


Couldn't disagree more with almost everything you wrote. First, McKeon has lost the team and needs to go at this point (I do agree with you there) but he's no moron. The guy did a masterful job of leading this team to a world title just two years ago, and he didn't suddenly get stupid. He is, however, a prettyy abrasive guy at times and his "old school" mentality has caused a deep chasm between Trader Jack and his players. So he'll have to be replaced.

As for Willis, his problem is not in any way, shape or form fatigue. The early season CG's aren't the problem, it's his goofy mechanics. I did not see him tonight, but in his previous two starts many of the contrivances that he had eliminated earlier were back again.

I'll even submit that Willis is TOO strong right now, and not worn down. In the previous two starts, he basically coudn't get any sinking action and that's often an issue when a guy is a little too rested, not the reverse.
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