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Next Season's "Don't Draft" guys

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Postby TheYanks04 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:17 am

Garland is not going to go in the 3rd round next year. No way. I would guess somewhere in the top 70-110 players overall.
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Postby warrick95 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:19 am

And yes, I agree that this is not really a blacklist, but a list of players to note not to reach for. If you have good rankings, they will likely be taken ahead of where you have them.
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Postby Andy1234 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:56 am

I'm avoiding Cristian Guzmán next year
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Postby go_jays_go » Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:10 am

Andy1234 wrote:I'm avoiding Cristian Guzmán next year


I think you can avoid him every year. He stanks. :-D
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Postby AT » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:59 am

Did someone say they drafted Juan Uribe over Scott Podsednik? That's a good one :-D

Someone else is avoiding Miguel Cabrera and Mark Teixeira next year? Another good one. :-D

Someone else avoiding Buehrle, Carpenter, Smoltz, Garland, and Clement? Yeah, those guys will all suck next year. Good one! :-D


Just in case you guys are looking for a league next year, PM me. Your money's always welcome. ;-D
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Postby Dawgpound 1613 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:26 am

Cognoscenti wrote:I don't understand the sentiment to avoid Derrek Lee, even in the first round. I can only think of a handful of guys I'd draft over him. This isn't a guy in a contract year, ala Beltre (whom I think will have a bounce-back year next year once he adjusts to AL pitching); this is a guy who simply hit his prime a little later than the much-lauded "Age 27".

Pujols, A-Rod, Vlad, Abreu, Tejada, Soriano. Those are the only guys I'd take over Lee.


This is the type of comment to which I am referring. Same went for Beltre last year.

I personally don't think Lee can repeat this season. Some people will and, as such, will draft him higher than I plan to. As such, while not specifically avoiding him, I doubt he ends up on any of my teams unless he drops to me where I think he should go. That almost never happens in the leagues I play.

Again, a lot of the players mentioned on this thread, the underachievers in 2005 who don't have injury and/or age issues, are players I will target, not avoid - provided I don't have to overdraft to get them.
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Postby acapulco » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:35 am

Huff: For the 3rd year in a row, he has been absolutely useless before the all star game. It remains to be seen whether he'll turn it on this year post all star game.

I also will not draft any rps in the 1st 6 or 7 rounds. Other than Rivera, rps are a total crapshoot.
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Postby AT » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:28 am

acapulco wrote:Huff: For the 3rd year in a row, he has been absolutely useless before the all star game. It remains to be seen whether he'll turn it on this year post all star game.

I also will not draft any rps in the 1st 6 or 7 rounds. Other than Rivera, rps are a total crapshoot.


If I'm drafting a team with pitching in mind and I have the snake (1st or last pick) and the top 2 relievers are on the board I will sometimes go back to back and then ignore them for the rest of the draft and fill in my bullpen as jobs become available throughout the first 2 months of the season. I've had success with this in the past. This year I took Lidge and KRod consistently and haven't been too disappointed since I've been able to fill in guys like Turnbow, Lyon, Brazoban, Hermanson, among others.
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Postby warrick95 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:38 am

Atrophying Testicles wrote:Did someone say they drafted Juan Uribe over Scott Podsednik? That's a good one :-D

Someone else is avoiding Miguel Cabrera and Mark Teixeira next year? Another good one. :-D

Someone else avoiding Buehrle, Carpenter, Smoltz, Garland, and Clement? Yeah, those guys will all suck next year. Good one! :-D


Just in case you guys are looking for a league next year, PM me. Your money's always welcome. ;-D


Read exactly what I wrote. Your original post, stating that you'd ignore some of the perfect underachievers is what I disagree with. What I advocate is to "avoid" (which is a rather extreme word) players that are unlikely to perform as well as they did last year. Buehrle, Carpenter, Garland can be attributed to prior performance that just doesn't make it likely that they'll perform this well. They've simply been out of this world good...completely atypical. Smoltz, Carpenter are both injury risks for next year. Clement is viewed as an ace due to being on the Sox although his ERA is above 4 and his WHIP is closing in on 1.3...actually just around where I had projected him to be. Smoltz will be a top-5 pitcher drafted off the board...which I feel is too risky. Garland, Carpenter, Buehrle will likely fall in the top 10 rather close to #5...which I feel is too risky due to the above reasons. Clement could be taken on the level of AJ Burnett when in reality, there's no basis for that at all.

Again, repeat after me. I'm not avoiding these players, but considering how I think they'll perform (and believe they've overachieved this year), somebody else will take them before me.

Seems like you skipped the rest of what I wrote in favor of the short player tidbits.
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Postby evil_beaver_dp » Thu Jul 21, 2005 12:41 pm

Atrophying Testicles wrote:Someone else is avoiding Miguel Cabrera and Mark Teixeira next year? Another good one. :-D


No, that's a misunderstood post. I'm saying Teixeira and Cabrera are two more guys of the handful of players who I would take ahead of Derrek Lee. People seem to think that Lee will be completely overrated going into next season, but I think he'll only be overrated if he going in the top 5 or so.
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