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Next Season's "Don't Draft" guys

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Postby bigh0rt » Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:45 pm

I think Beltre is going to be just fine. He appears to be adjusting to the AL through 1/2 a season, getting his stroke back, even his power. The guy is 26 years old, heading into his prime years. The people jumping off his wagon better be prepared to join me back on it down the road. I think Adrian is the real deal.
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Postby mamorris » Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:55 pm

go_jays_go wrote:Some of these replies are really wrong. I think people are thinking that if there was another draft now, that they would avoid the people that they listed. Which is wrong.

Secondly, I saw somebody mention Derrek Lee. Wanna explain this one? Derrek has always been a quality first basemen and the first time he's tearing it up people are saying to avoid him next year? I deffinately wouldn't pick him first round, but he's not someone I would avoid under any circumstances.


Yeah, but that's just it - he will (likely) go in the first round, so unless you're prepared to draft him there, he won't be on any of your teams. I believe that's the point the poster was trying to make, and I agree.

I think Beltre is going to be just fine. He appears to be adjusting to the AL through 1/2 a season, getting his stroke back, even his power. The guy is 26 years old, heading into his prime years. The people jumping off his wagon better be prepared to join me back on it down the road. I think Adrian is the real deal.


Funny you mention that, even though I was citing Beltre as an example of what happens when you draft someone based on their career year. I'm actually looking to acquire him on a couple of my teams, because I also think he'll bounce back. However, he was never worth a first-rounder, and that's where he went in drafts that I saw.
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Postby Cognoscenti » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:15 pm

I don't understand the sentiment to avoid Derrek Lee, even in the first round. I can only think of a handful of guys I'd draft over him. This isn't a guy in a contract year, ala Beltre (whom I think will have a bounce-back year next year once he adjusts to AL pitching); this is a guy who simply hit his prime a little later than the much-lauded "Age 27".

Pujols, A-Rod, Vlad, Abreu, Tejada, Soriano. Those are the only guys I'd take over Lee.
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Postby rlee » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:20 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:Kerry "Just Good Enough to Lose" Wood is the Fantasy Pitching Siren, draeing in owners to his deadly shores. Every year people pay round 4-5 prices for a round 10-11 at best SP who NEVER gets a lot of Ws and who usually gets hurt. Somehow, this guy's rep is way higher than his performances and it cotinues to persist.


He left tonight's game in the 4th inning (?) with another stiff shoulder. Another trip to the DL? If so, after only 4 starts off of it :-C
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Postby evil_beaver_dp » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:39 pm

Cognoscenti wrote:I don't understand the sentiment to avoid Derrek Lee, even in the first round. I can only think of a handful of guys I'd draft over him. This isn't a guy in a contract year, ala Beltre (whom I think will have a bounce-back year next year once he adjusts to AL pitching); this is a guy who simply hit his prime a little later than the much-lauded "Age 27".

Pujols, A-Rod, Vlad, Abreu, Tejada, Soriano. Those are the only guys I'd take over Lee.


Add Teixiera and, possibly, Miguel Cabrera to my list
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Postby evil_beaver_dp » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:46 pm

It is a little too early to talk about this for many guys, but these guys were on my list for THIS season...

Sosa (about #50 on my OF rankings, maybe worse, going into '04)

Brett Boone

Jose Reyes - great speed but has shown NOTHING else thus far. he should be hitting 8'th or in the minors learning to hit.

I can't think of any others who I would call "undraftable" heading into 2005, and I actually wouldn't call Reyes undraftable. There's plenty of guys who I think will be overrated, but I find it best to just make my rankings and be happy when some other guy takes Troy Percival and Shingo Takatsu ahead of my B.J. Ryan.
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Postby coherentinsomnia » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:02 am

the list is the same every year

no rockies pitchers

no royals

and no one who's last name has more letters in their name than numbers in there hr's and rbi's combined
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Postby daullaz » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:10 am

There is nobody that is undraftable. Every year, several writers agree that certain players are busts and all the like-minded sheep out there in fantasy baseball world nod their heads and cross the guys off their lists before the draft begins. Someone already mentioned Morgan Ensberg. What about Barry Zito? Wasn't he finished? Everyone had given up on him for dead; right now he's looking mighty nice behind Santana and Colon in my rotation in my dynasty contract league, and I have all three locked up for next year as well. I'll be sure to buy-low on a couple more potential busts next year while my other owners skip over the players marked DND.
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Postby DGroundhog » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:11 am

John Garland is my #1 'avoid like the freakin' plague' guy. He will just be taken too early for me.

I guess I view this question different than some. I'd certainly look at Corey Patterson next year (in like the 19th round). I don't think you go from potential 30/30 candidate to no-talent bum as quick as Corey. He has a chance to rebound. If not, it was a late round flier.

John Garland will probably be gone in the first 3 rounds, but it sure as hell won't be me calling his name.
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Postby warrick95 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:16 am

I strongly disagree with many of the players previously mentioned. In fact, I event think many are GREAT targets for next year, just because they had such bad years. Mike Lowell is a premium example. I don't think he's suddenly lost his swing and could put up numbers close to 30-100 in the teen rounds. I too, had already blacklisted players like Sammy this season. (Just to brag, I blacklisted Ollie Perez and Jason Schmidt due to injury concerns prior to the season. Well, looky what happened with them...though it wasn't the elbow for Ollie as I expected. I purposely didn't draft Rolen because I knew Blalock, Chavez, or Chipper would do just as well...he had an out of the world season in 2004).

Personally, I would avoid players who had flukish seasons that are unlikely to be repeated (or superb seasons that are just TOO good, even if they'll still be good...basically overachievers), instead of the players that y'all have mentioned who have underachieved. Some should bounce back, especially say, Chavez, who's been superb since a rough start. Thome's lost his average, but he'll still jack 45 if healthy.

D-Train, Roberts, and Lee are superb examples. To add to them (now, there's more baseball to be played, so some of these guys may cool down and thus be forgotten as "studs"...remember, last impressions are critical):

Andruw Jones. Way too streaky. I don't believe he's suddenly found a batting eye.
Carlos Lee. High scoreboard stats (HR/RBI/R) mask the fact that he's only hitting .264. Hasn't had that good numbers in his career.
Torii Hunter. Value is tied up with steals...streaky runner...not sure whether or not he'll be off.
Morgan Ensberg. Though he was hurt last year resulting in a power drop, this sort of surge looks unreal at this age. I want another year before I buy it...meaning, I won't pay value for what he's done.
Pat Burrell. Similar to Andruw Jones.
Chad Cordero. Inflated save numbers....and we all now how unpredictable opportunities can be. I also do not believe he's THAT good.
Mark Buehrle. He may have turned the corner, but he was superb in 2001, too, before a drop in 2002-2004. I don't think he's this good, though the most efficient pitcher in the game.
John Smoltz. Sorry, John...you've been a top pitcher this year, but how's your arm going to react after a year's workload?
Chris Carpenter. Can he stay off the DL? I also the ERA and WHIP will be closer to 3.5/1.2 over a full season next year. Typical "too good" type of player.
Matt Clement. Big market exposure makes him very overrated. Certianly not an ace like some think.
Eddie Guardado. Still didn't get that shoulder problem taken care of...plus if he isn't dealt this offseason (or does his deal expire?)
Jon Garland. Show me that you're for real, Jon. I'll let somebody else take that risk.
Rattle some more: Chris Young, Todd Jones (god forbid if he keeps that job for the rest of the year), Dustin Hermanson, Bruce Chen, Adam Eaton, Kenny Rogers...too lazy to type everything out.

Oh, for consistency, I'm still blacklisting Schmidt. As for Ollie, I think, if he's taken late enough, he's a great gamble. He was going in the early rounds this year and considering the risk, I would've rather gone with say, Halladay, but considering Perez's upside, he'd be a nice pick in the early teens due to his rough season.

I repeat, these are not players that I'd lay off of period, but I feel like they'll go too early in drafts and that I'm better off capitalizing with other players, who either have more upside or track record. Or, just take bargain players later.
Last edited by warrick95 on Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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