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Next Season's "Don't Draft" guys

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Postby go_jays_go » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:24 am

I don't care even if it's July, I'm staying away from Percival if he doesn't retire.

He stinks something fierce. :-t
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Postby pokerplaya » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:27 am

I agree that it might be a tad early, but some of these guys are clearly on a downward trend. The Boone's, Percy's, and Sosa's of the world have clearly seen their better days. I can say with confidence, that I will only be drafting them if I see them there in the 20th round. I've seen enough to know by this point that I don't like what I see.
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Postby JGarrison » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:38 pm

Mills13 wrote:Gagne I'd still draft if he's the closer. He had a freak injury, put him in rehab and you never know. I'll avoid:
Pierre
Chavez
Thome? If he's there in one of the last rounds I could see myself picking him up, otherwise no.
Reyes
Boone
Lowell
Foulke possibly but I'd rather find a better closer.


Why wouldn't you draft Pierre? He has been on a tear lately
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Postby AT » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:47 pm

JGarrison wrote:
Mills13 wrote:Gagne I'd still draft if he's the closer. He had a freak injury, put him in rehab and you never know. I'll avoid:
Pierre
Chavez
Thome? If he's there in one of the last rounds I could see myself picking him up, otherwise no.
Reyes
Boone
Lowell
Foulke possibly but I'd rather find a better closer.


Why wouldn't you draft Pierre? He has been on a tear lately


Same thing for Chavez and Reyes. Reyes is way too young, and too much of a SB threat too ignore. Plus he's a SS.
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Postby rmeesig » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:14 pm

Corey Patterson
If a man dwells on the past, then he robs the present.
But if a man ignores the past, he may rob the future.
The seeds of our destiny are nurtured by the roots of our past.
[i]-- Master Po[/i]
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Postby baseballnewb » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:14 pm

Well pierre was overvalued 2 years ago, had a worse year last year and somehow went up in value this year and has underperformed this year as well.

I will avoid Brian Roberts, Willis and D. Lee, all three will go way too high in next years draft for my tastes.
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Postby mamorris » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:22 pm

baseballnewb wrote:I will avoid Brian Roberts, Willis and D. Lee, all three will go way too high in next years draft for my tastes.


Thankyou, that's probably the best list of the lot. Anyone who got off to a flying start the first couple of months will still have inflated stats over the season, making them generally overvalued the following year. Also, you should be wary of anyone who is coming off a career year, unless you like getting guys like Adrian Beltre in the first round.
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Postby Dawgpound 1613 » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:08 pm

mamorris wrote:
baseballnewb wrote:I will avoid Brian Roberts, Willis and D. Lee, all three will go way too high in next years draft for my tastes.


Thankyou, that's probably the best list of the lot. Anyone who got off to a flying start the first couple of months will still have inflated stats over the season, making them generally overvalued the following year. Also, you should be wary of anyone who is coming off a career year, unless you like getting guys like Adrian Beltre in the first round.


Agree. Telling me that people will avoid old and/or injury-prone players is one thing - most people will do that anyway. But, if they drop too low, I'll still take a gamble.

Rather, the players I'll look to avoid are those that have played way above their past performance - but only if the underlying skills don't support a repeat performance (ala D. Lee's .400 BABIP average). Those are the players that I won't avoid, per se, but will let others overdraft them.

Anyway, writing off any player can be risky. I avoided Griffey (as did many others), but figured I'd take him with my last pick. Another guy took him the round before - and even if he doesn't play another day, I think he's enjoyed the 20+ HR from his 22nd round pick.
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Postby NYMetsIn2k4 » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:21 pm

haha, some of these lists r ridiculous... half of the guys u mention arent all of a sudden undraftable, they become sleepers.. a la morgan ensberg... high on draft list lastyr, was Horrible, i mean Horrible! and now look... my best comparison to him is Justin Morneau... mark my words,

"Morneau Will Have A Great Season NextYr"-ME... and thats if he doesnt turn it around this yr...

anyways, back to this, id def avoid lee, b rob, and dtrain as some1 mentioned earlier, but id also hunt for guys like thome who had bad yrs, and reyes will definetely be high on my list, along with beltran, despite mediocre to bad yrs by both. avoid sosa and randy, but not so much randy, just no longer late 1st/early 2nd rounder, piazzas done, bags is done, giles sucks, preston sucks, etc, i dunno, i could go on for days
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Postby linberg » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:53 pm

My best strategy this year was to take guys on both sides of tha ball that performed better in 2003 than 2004, or just slightly better in 2004. Obviously this doesn't apply to the Arod types, but I know my picks of D Lee (7), C Lee (9), An Jones (10) and Carpenter (11) are the reason I'm in first. This is the same reason that I will avoid most of my team next year early in the draft. They will simply be overvalued. I don't think there's anyone I'm avoiding hands down, just guys I'm not going to take early. I'll be happy when I get Beltran in the 2nd or 3rd round next year, Olly Perez in the 9th, Thome in the 7th, Helton in the 6th, Edmonds in the 8th, Schmidt in the 5th, Foulke in the 10th... the list is endless. I'm going to save this thread so I can draft almost all of the people you mention next year and whoop some ass again.
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