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Postby bigh0rt » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:01 pm

mon·ey n. pl. mon·eys or mon·ies

A medium that can be exchanged for goods and services and is used as a measure of their values on the market, including among its forms a commodity such as gold, an officially issued coin or note, or a deposit in a checking account or other readily liquifiable account.
The official currency, coins, and negotiable paper notes issued by a government.
Assets and property considered in terms of monetary value; wealth.

Pecuniary profit or loss: He made money on the sale of his properties.
One's salary; pay: It was a terrible job, but the money was good.
An amount of cash or credit: raised the money for the new playground.
Sums of money, especially of a specified nature. Often used in the plural: state tax moneys; monies set aside for research and development.
A wealthy person, family, or group: to come from old money; to marry into money.


Idioms:
for (one's) money
According to one's opinion, choice, or preference: For my money, it's not worth the trouble.
in the money
Slang Rich; affluent.
Sports & Games Taking first, second, or third place in a contest on which a bet has been placed, such as a horserace.
on the money
Exact; precise.
put money on Sports & Games
To place a bet on.
put (one's) money where (one's) mouth is Slang
To live up to one's words; act according to one's own advice.


Ayala has won 10, 6, and 7 (so far) games in each of his 3 MLB seasons, respectively, all in relief. He's never finished with an ERA above 3 (though right now he's at 3.05 for 2005), a WHIP above 1.20 (though, again, he's at 1.32 currently for 2005), never let up double digit homers, never had worse than a 3/1 K/BB Ratio. I'd say there's a lot more going on than luck in his vulture wins. There's a reason why some relievers win 7 or more games per season while others don't. Being put into the situation is only one piece of the puzzle.
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Postby swyck » Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:44 pm

Ayala has won 10, 6, and 7 (so far) games in each of his 3 MLB seasons, respectively, all in relief. He's never finished with an ERA above 3 (though right now he's at 3.05 for 2005), a WHIP above 1.20 (though, again, he's at 1.32 currently for 2005), never let up double digit homers, never had worse than a 3/1 K/BB Ratio. I'd say there's a lot more going on than luck in his vulture wins. There's a reason why some relievers win 7 or more games per season while others don't. Being put into the situation is only one piece of the puzzle.

And if Rincon only has 4 wins at the all-star break, thats not really that far from a 10 win season with a little luck. With minimal luck that should be 6-8 wins. He's also on pace to get close to 100k's with excellent WHIP and ERA.

Agreed that you can't expect a dozen wins every year from an MR, but some of these guys are fairly steady, and will give you more value then some of the bottom dwelling SPs I see being picked up.
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Postby stumpak » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:25 am

Look, I love the MR strategy myself. I am just saying that win totals for these guys are based a lot on luck and just becasue some guy hangs up double digit wins one year does not mean that it will happen the next season, or because he does it one half of the year does not mean he will do it the second half. It is a bad idea to value these guys solely on their win totals vice Ks and ratios, which are much less volitile from year to year.
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Postby great gretzky » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:01 pm

and the fact is, say you get two lights out relievers with around 6 wins apiece and they get 200 innings, with a k per. That is a damn solid "starter" in all reality.

The numbers don't lie, it does work. And it wouldn't be fluky to have picked sheilds up to start the year and get seanz shortly thereafter. these guys exist.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:10 pm

We hear this theory every year and I have yet to find someone in any league who picked up a couple of MRs in the draft and they panned out as expected. How has Otsuka worked out with his 1 W and 1.27 WHIP? Gordon has 3 Ws. Linebrink 4.

Some pick these guys up as the season starts off and play the hot hand to a couple of decent MRs, but for every owner successful at that their are 8 or 9 that are not suuccessful.

Bottom line is that this strategy just is not consistent enough to be effective come draft day. And not worth planning on. If you started the year with Gordon and Otsuka you probably thought you had it made using this idea...You would have all of 4 wins about 2/3 of the way through the season.
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Postby swyck » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:05 pm

MR stats a bit after the all-star game:
W IP K ERA WHIP
Gordon 3 46.2 46 2.70 1.11
Otsuka 1 41.0 43 2.63 1.27
Linebrink 4 41.0 40 2.20 1.20

So if you had Otsuka and Linebrink (easy math) you would have:
W IP K ERA WHIP
5 83 86 2.41 1.24

Those are pretty good stats. As mentioned it is light on the wins, but is excellent in K, ERA, and WHIP. Even better if you have IP limits.

It's correct that you really can't anticipate wins from MR's that well, but most of the MR's that were expected to do well this year - Gordon, Rincon, Shields, Otsuka, Linebrink - have actually done close to what was expected.

Some of these guys had tough stretches, and I'm among the people that bailed on Gordon and Otsuka. Gordons now back, and I'm seriously contemplating Donnely or Otsuka to help my WHIP and ERA.

I've never heard of the MR strategy as being used to get you wins. You need SPs for that. The MR strategy is to get you some good baseline ERA, WHIP, and decent K's. 3 good cats out of 5, the numbers dont lie. B-)
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Postby Steve-o » Fri Jul 22, 2005 5:27 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:Bottom line is that this strategy just is not consistent enough to be effective come draft day. And not worth planning on. If you started the year with Gordon and Otsuka you probably thought you had it made using this idea...You would have all of 4 wins about 2/3 of the way through the season.


Absolutely. If you are going with this strategy it is best to draft fliers in the late rounds then drop the ones who don't pan out to add the hot middle reliver. For evidence just run a search on who the top middle relievers were coming into the season. Kiko Calero comes to mind along with the other names mentioned. I tried it in a free league this year, and I don't think I have anyone left from the 4 I drafted (dropped Gordon, Otsuka, Calero and someone else...).

Frankly, if you think SP is unpredictable try MR. :-o
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