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A.J. to the O's: How bad is this for Burnett owners?

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Postby Mustangs989 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:52 pm

Burnett's career road ERA is 4.31 compared to 3.28 at home. That's defenitely something worth noting and adding the fact that he's going to the AL I expect his ERA to rise up around 4 or so.
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Postby Pedantic » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:55 pm

I'm going to be one of the few dissenters and say that his ERA will go down. At worst, it might stay the same as it is at the moment.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:01 pm

Mustangs989 wrote:Burnett's career road ERA is 4.31 compared to 3.28 at home. That's defenitely something worth noting and adding the fact that he's going to the AL I expect his ERA to rise up around 4 or so.




that home and road splits is need to know info... if pro player makes that much of a difference on his era, then a move to baltimore could easily be expected to raise his era to 4 or higher..... nobody will know for sure as clement has done well so far in the AL this year,,, but that home and road splits scares me quite a bit.....
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Postby The Guru » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:02 pm

I checked out balt schedule the rest of the way and its pretty brutal for balt starting pitching.

he value def decreases going to balt.

now if he goes to boston that would be better. their schedule the rest of the way is decent for boston starting pitching. i say his value is about what it is now if he goes to boston.
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Postby gws226 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:17 pm

Im the optimist of the group...... I think you guys are selling post FLA AJ way too low, and if their owners are expecting AJs ERA to jump up a point (4.60) and era in the relm of 1.6 the rest of the way, you should see if you can buy him on the cheap....... I say 3.70-3.80 w/1.30-1.35 whip the rest of the way......
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Postby WittyC » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:34 pm

I, for one, have been trying to unload Burnett in every league I have him in since these rumors popped up about three weeks ago. And, considering I had him targeted preseason, I have him in a lot of leagues.

It's simply naive to think that he'll improve anything except, perhaps, wins by making a switch to the AL East.

As already mentioned, he'll be in a better hitter's park against better lineups, and he'll have to face the DH. Camden's not bad to pitch in early in the season, but as the weather heats up, the ball seems to fly out.

Add in the fact that he's still has the giant ? hanging over him with an injury concern, and I think he's a good sell high candidate.

That being said, I haven't dealt him in any of my leagues yet simply because I'm not getting back the value that I want for him. His lack of W's makes his rank low in Yahoo! leagues, which makes him near-impossible to deal in pubs. In my money leagues, I think people are hesitant for the same reasons that I want to deal him.

The moral of this story: sell high... but don't undersell the guy!
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Postby Juhlz » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:47 pm

WittyC wrote:I, for one, have been trying to unload Burnett in every league I have him in since these rumors popped up about three weeks ago. And, considering I had him targeted preseason, I have him in a lot of leagues.

It's simply naive to think that he'll improve anything except, perhaps, wins by making a switch to the AL East.

As already mentioned, he'll be in a better hitter's park against better lineups, and he'll have to face the DH. Camden's not bad to pitch in early in the season, but as the weather heats up, the ball seems to fly out.

Add in the fact that he's still has the giant ? hanging over him with an injury concern, and I think he's a good sell high candidate.


That being said, I haven't dealt him in any of my leagues yet simply because I'm not getting back the value that I want for him. His lack of W's makes his rank low in Yahoo! leagues, which makes him near-impossible to deal in pubs. In my money leagues, I think people are hesitant for the same reasons that I want to deal him.

The moral of this story: sell high... but don't undersell the guy!


I don't see how you could expect to sell high on a guy with injury concerns, moving to a hitters park, facing tougher line-ups and DH's, bad road splits. Unload him before his value actually starts to go down further.
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Re: A.J. to the O's: How bad is this for Burnett owners?

Postby TonyCee » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:54 pm

Doughhead wrote:I know there area bunch of threads on this already, but I want to specifically know exactly how bad this will be for A.J. owners. Are we overreacting to the potential ramifications of this deal? Maybe he will be more successful? Thoughts?

:-o



I'm in an NL-only league so the ramifications are :-t :-t :-t
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Postby gtabaplayr1 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 7:26 pm

On my fantasy baseball team where you can set your fantasy lineups daily Burnett's value will probably increase since I won't start him against the Yanks or Sox. How many times during the second half will he face them? 4 or 5 times probably 1/5 of his starts. So I will start him against everyone else where he will post good numbers and get alot of wins. I don't start anyone but absolute studs against those two teams or Cardnals, so for me this trade is good for my fantasy team. Thats why I have a 6 man rotation of Peavy, Vazquez, Mussina, Bedard, Myers, and Burnett.
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Postby Doughhead » Tue Jul 19, 2005 9:39 pm

gtabaplayr1 wrote:On my fantasy baseball team where you can set your fantasy lineups daily Burnett's value will probably increase since I won't start him against the Yanks or Sox. How many times during the second half will he face them? 4 or 5 times probably 1/5 of his starts. So I will start him against everyone else where he will post good numbers and get alot of wins. I don't start anyone but absolute studs against those two teams or Cardnals, so for me this trade is good for my fantasy team. Thats why I have a 6 man rotation of Peavy, Vazquez, Mussina, Bedard, Myers, and Burnett.


That's a great point. I'll just start him against the weaker teams and steer clear of the big bashers. ;-D
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