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A.J. to the O's: How bad is this for Burnett owners?

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A.J. to the O's: How bad is this for Burnett owners?

Postby Doughhead » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:59 am

I know there area bunch of threads on this already, but I want to specifically know exactly how bad this will be for A.J. owners. Are we overreacting to the potential ramifications of this deal? Maybe he will be more successful? Thoughts?

:-o
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Postby Drunken Rhino » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:05 pm

Like most NL pitchers that move to the AL, his ERA will go up .75-1R and his WHIP will go up as well, especially pitching to the mashers in the AL East so often. His Ks will remain about the same with the possibility of the Ws going up as well.

He's a great pitcher and his value won't be hurt TOO much by the move.
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Postby go_jays_go » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:05 pm

I doubt he'll be more sucessful because he's in one of the toughest divisions to be pitching against. The only thing I see Burnett benefiting from the possible move to Baltimore is a couple more wins. It seems even if he does get tanked, the offence will be there to back him up.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:08 pm

I think it could be pretty bad depending how the schedules line up. The DH can't help but if he ends up faceing the Red Sox and Yankees a lot there could be trouble.
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Postby rocky123 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:14 pm

I agree with the others here. I see his wins and ratios increasing and his Ks decreasing. Pitching against the AL East will certainly hurt him as well as pitching in a great hitters ballpark like Camden Yards. Florida was not real condusive to hitters and a lot of the balls that died on the warning track there will defintely be homers in Baltimore.
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Postby bdrotoronto » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:05 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:The DH can't help but if he ends up faceing the Red Sox and Yankees a lot there could be trouble.

Yes, but don't forget the flipside, i.e. that there'd be a lot more games against the Blue Jays and Devil Rays too.. :-]
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Postby garf112 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:05 pm

Drunken Rhino wrote:Like most NL pitchers that move to the AL, his ERA will go up .75-1R and his WHIP will go up as well, especially pitching to the mashers in the AL East so often. His Ks will remain about the same with the possibility of the Ws going up as well.

He's a great pitcher and his value won't be hurt TOO much by the move.


The AL and NL ERAs are similar this year, which is a bit odd. It could be because of better pitchers in the AL, better hitters ballparks in the NL, or any number of other reasons. I agree that his ERA will go up, but only because he will be in the AL East. If he was going to pitch for Oakland or Minnesota, it would be a different story, but he is a guy that has always pitched in a pitchers' park and is moving to a hitters' haven.

The gain in Ws will offset his loss of value from an inflated ERA and WHIP.
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Postby baseballnewb » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:20 pm

Tampa and Toronto have average offenses, his ERA is bound to go up at least 0.50 and as much as 1.00 and his whip will go up slightly.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:34 pm

These ERA predictions are shots in the dark. The truth is, nobody knows. A lot of pitchers have had trouble making the adjustment from the NL to the AL, but there have been some success stories too. ERA is PROBABLY going to go up, but how much? Nobody knows. I think the whole AL/NL factor is overblown quite a bit in fantasy circles. Now...he DOES have to face the Red Sox/Yankees more often, and that's cause for concern.

Look at it this way, he never has to pitch at Colorado or at Philadelphia again. Not to mention, he wasn't exactly pitching well in Florida lately. Maybe this will get his head straight...
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Postby The Jury » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:40 pm

bdrotoronto wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:The DH can't help but if he ends up faceing the Red Sox and Yankees a lot there could be trouble.

Yes, but don't forget the flipside, i.e. that there'd be a lot more games against the Blue Jays and Devil Rays too.. :-]


Yeah but instead of facing Pedro, Lieber, Smoltzie, and Livan ;-7, he'll be facing former MVP Giambino, 2005 All Star Shea Hillenbrand, Huffy, and 2005 All Star and Home Run Derby contestant Big Papi :-o
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