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Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:21 am

StlSluggers wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:I really am enjoying this book so far, and I am impressed by many of the things Beane has done to make this team competitive, but there are also alot of things that annoy me. In the Giambi chapter, when they're all in the video room watching the game, nobody has any emotion, even when the team is getting wrecked.

Giambi is hitting doubles off the wall and Jeter's hitting homeruns. The author is yelling at the TV. DePodesta says it's about the "process" not the "outcome". How is it not about the outcome? I can put a bunch of people out there and expect them to do well, but if they don't, that's what counts. I don't understand how you can deem the outcome insignificant.

Well, I think the point there is that these guys are so confident in their numbers that they "know" they will win more than they will lose. However, they understand that they will lose. So their job isn't to get concerned about a loss. Their job is to simply evaluate that they are sticking to the plan, because - in their minds - the plan will work given enough time.


Yeah, I know what you mean. It seems crazy that you can project the amount of runs you will score based on OPS and then project how many wins you'll have, but maybe I need to go read some sabermetric stuff. This is the first book I've read that has to deal with any of that. I'm pretty new at this stuff so forgive me if I sound like an idiot. I'm just trying to understand this new philosophy better. :-)
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:21 am

BronXBombers51 wrote:Giambi is hitting doubles off the wall and Jeter's hitting homeruns. The author is yelling at the TV. DePodesta says it's about the "process" not the "outcome". How is it not about the outcome? I can put a bunch of people out there and expect them to do well, but if they don't, that's what counts. I don't understand how you can deem the outcome insignificant.

I interpreted that as they [managment] doesn't want to become too emotionally involved, which could lead to over-reaction in personell decisions. They want to reamain as detached as possible so they can remain as objective as possible. And also, they seem to embrace the "if you take care of the details [the 'process'] the big things [the outcome] takes care of itself" philosophy. Kind of like how they go after the players who don't look like ball players, and the guys who don't go for style points like Bradford.
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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:29 am

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:I googled, waded through MLB.com, MiLB.com, googled again, and still can't find minor league contract information, so I'm not going to make a strong assertion one way or the other, but I know he didn't demand the contract/signing bonus of other first round players. Again, Beane is trying to minimize his risk in the case of the inevitable bust. Something like 1% of a draft class every year makes it to the show, and that includes the "sure thing" first rounders.


Nate.......I don't want to put words in your mouth so excuse me if I do but this angers me even more for the Beane supporters and A's fans. If I am understanding you correctly, you are basically saying that he likes reaching for these players because since only 1% make it, 99% don't so why not reach for other players that won't cost as much?? Since they probably won't make it, he will have only lost minimal money when they fail. While I understand the logic, I hate that technique. I would rather see him just draft youngsters and try to win. They won't cost a lot until they have either proven or disproven their worth.

I wish that they could just trade draft picks. :-°
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:44 am

Hehe, yeah, that's not really what I meant by that. :*) I was just trying to show that even the first rounders that teams will throw millions at only have a slight chance of making the show, let alone have a big impact, so why throw those millions at odds like that?

As for the rest, I guess we just have two very different defenitions of success. You (appear to) think that winning a WS title is the only way his techniques can be vindicated, while I think what he has accomplished as of now is more than enough to deem him a success.
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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:23 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:Hehe, yeah, that's not really what I meant by that. :*) I was just trying to show that even the first rounders that teams will throw millions at only have a slight chance of making the show, let alone have a big impact, so why throw those millions at odds like that?

As for the rest, I guess we just have two very different defenitions of success. You (appear to) think that winning a WS title is the only way his techniques can be vindicated, while I think what he has accomplished as of now is more than enough to deem him a success.


We do have different thoughts on success here but it's all relative. My thoughts on Beane stem from my belief that before a book is written about someone and people pray to him like he's a God, I would like to see at least 1 title.* If not that, how about a playoff series win?? Just something. This may sound harsh but all that he has shown to me is that he can take a low payroll team, get 2 or 3 extra home playoff games, and lose in the 1st round every year. I commend him for being consistently competitive, especially under the circumstances, but that's where my praise for him ends.

*I am not referring to you in particular here. Just trying to make a point.

Allow me to reference hockey again for a minute. Glen Sather had this same "problem" at the end of his tenure as the GM of Edmonton. He had a very low payroll and had to tweak the system in order to remain competitive. Well, they made the playoffs most seasons (who doesn't in the NHL) but they rarely advanced. He even went on record as saying that if he had a payroll like the Rangers, he could make the playoffs every year. How's that working for you now, Glen?? ;-7

Now, the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, and Red Sox (at least before last season) have shown that merely spending money doesn't guarantee you anything. You need to spend wisely. I might be more impressed with Beane if he went to a team with a higher payroll and had more success. I would like to see him go to the next level before I give him his props. We will never know if Boston would have won last year if Beane had accepted the job. I can tell you that he would be under much more pressure because the low payroll crutch would be gone and there would be no room for excuses. I bet that played a big part in him turning down the Boston job.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:39 pm

Hey, the differences are what make this stuff fun. It would suck if everyone always agreed. ;-D And all the hockey references are completely going over my head, just so you know. :-b

Lofunzo wrote:Now, the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, and Red Sox (at least before last season) have shown that merely spending money doesn't guarantee you anything. You need to spend wisely.

You're completely right, but higher revenue streams/payroll give you a lot more wiggle room when it comes to bad signings or bringing in vets for a pennant/playoff run.

Lofunzo wrote:I might be more impressed with Beane if he went to a team with a higher payroll and had more success. I would like to see him go to the next level before I give him his props. We will never know if Boston would have won last year if Beane had accepted the job.

I agree, I would love to see him go to a big market team, because I'm willing to bet he would have at least the success he has had in OAK which -- outside of NYY where anything but a WS is a bust -- would be embraced by most fanbases, and he would more than likely exceed that with more resources at his disposal.

Lofunzo wrote:I can tell you that he would be under much more pressure because the low payroll crutch would be gone and there would be no room for excuses. I bet that played a big part in him turning down the Boston job.

Right, but we haven't seen him in that sitation yet, have we, and until we do we will never know. I do agree with you though that that may have factored into his decision to stay in OAK, but from what I recall from the book (it's been a few months so I'll dig my copy out when I get home) he just didn't like the situation in BOS and he wanted to complete the job (ie win a WS) before jumping ship in OAK, but don't quote me on that.
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:46 pm

Further commentary on this book after reading the Trading Desk chapter... Wow. Beane really knows how to deal. Amazing how he just minipulated Minaya like that and tried to force his way into the Cliff Floyd deal, as well as bringing the Yankees into the Weaver deal. 8-o
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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:48 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:Now, the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, and Red Sox (at least before last season) have shown that merely spending money doesn't guarantee you anything. You need to spend wisely.

You're completely right, but higher revenue streams/payroll give you a lot more wiggle room when it comes to bad signings or bringing in vets for a pennant/playoff run.


Completely agree and that is what I always say about teams like the Yankees or Red Sox. It's not only being able to spend money on FA's. Tons of teams can do that to a degree. It's being able to absorb the Giambi-type failures. Most teams would be crippled forever if they made that mistake.

This also helps illustrate 1 of my other points. You either draft, trade for, or sign players for your team. The cheapest route is via the draft. If Beane has his hands tied during trades because he can't take on added payroll and he can't sign premier FA's, wouldn't it be in his best interest to draft the best players that he can at each pick?? By this I mean not reaching for Brown when every other team would have passed until at least the 10th. He could have still gotten his guy and gotten another 1st round (perceived) player in the process. The price difference can't criplle them. This way, he would have gotten a 1st round pick and a 10th (Brown) rather than say 2 10th's.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:50 pm

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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:51 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:Further commentary on this book after reading the Trading Desk chapter... Wow. Beane really knows how to deal. Amazing how he just minipulated Minaya like that and tried to force his way into the Cliff Floyd deal, as well as bringing the Yankees into the Weaver deal. 8-o

I'm sure that was played up a little bit and other GMs (Schuerholz and Jocketty come to mind) take advantage of clueless GMs, but I do have to admit it was pretty impressive when I read it. ;-D
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