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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:41 am

JTWood wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:I am not talking about winning the WS although that would be nice based on all of the love that he gets here. I am saying that he should have to win 1 playoff series before getting this much love. He had the best rotation in the majors for years and could never get through 1 round. A 5 game series should have been taylor made for that rotation.

I think you just proved Beane's philosophy that the playoff's are based more on luck than anything else.


Of course he would say that when he has never won a playoff series. ;-7

I would like to reiterate that merely based on his said luck, when you can trot 2 of Hudson, Mulder, and Zito out twice and 1 of them once in a 5 game series, they should have won a series once.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:50 am

Lofunzo wrote:I was waiting for the Yankee/Red Sox comparisons. :-°

I don't see how you can't bring them into the conversation. :-?

Lofunzo wrote:He could put more $$ into foreign scouting.

That's money he doesn't have. That's why he has to rely on the numbers, which is well documented in the book.

Lofunzo wrote:He could also do his best to draft the best players possible while still getting his guys. If he is a genius, he should know that Brown is a relative 12th rounder (for example) and draft him in the 11th. You guys make it sound like a 25th pick in the 1st round is gonna want top 3 $$.

He still cost much less than the other first round picks taken around him.

Lofunzo wrote:As for being competitive year in and year out rather than win 1 and then suck for years, that is interesting. I tend to think that if the fans out there were polled, they would take the latter. I know that there was 54 years in between Cups but Ranger fans aren't happy now because the team sucks but they wouldn't trade anything for that Cup in 1994. Sorry for the NHL reference. ;-7 I would be curious to see how many people are cool with a team that has posted great regular season records over the years only to fail in the playoffs. I also wonder how their continued success will stand up once the last of their Big 3 is gone.

I realize I'm probably in the minority on this one, but I would rather be the Braves than the Mets or Marlins for several years after their first championship.
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Postby StlSluggers » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:10 am

Lofunzo wrote:Of course he would say that when he has never won a playoff series. ;-7

:-D ;-)

Lofuzo wrote:I would like to reiterate that merely based on his said luck, when you can trot 2 of Hudson, Mulder, and Zito out twice and 1 of them once in a 5 game series, they should have won a series once.

Yes, and using that same logic, with the offense the Cardinals had last year, they should have at least won one game against the BoSox.
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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:29 am

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:I was waiting for the Yankee/Red Sox comparisons. :-°

I don't see how you can't bring them into the conversation. :-?

Why?? No one has mentioned that they should spend a dime on FA's. :-?

Lofunzo wrote:He could put more $$ into foreign scouting.

That's money he doesn't have. That's why he has to rely on the numbers, which is well documented in the book.

He has to have a few pennies to spend there. :-?

Lofunzo wrote:He could also do his best to draft the best players possible while still getting his guys. If he is a genius, he should know that Brown is a relative 12th rounder (for example) and draft him in the 11th. You guys make it sound like a 25th pick in the 1st round is gonna want top 3 $$.

He still cost much less than the other first round picks taken around him.

Much less?? How much less than say the 30th pick?? Or compared to the 35th pick?? I don't know but I don't see it as being enough to warrant passing over other talent.

Lofunzo wrote:As for being competitive year in and year out rather than win 1 and then suck for years, that is interesting. I tend to think that if the fans out there were polled, they would take the latter. I know that there was 54 years in between Cups but Ranger fans aren't happy now because the team sucks but they wouldn't trade anything for that Cup in 1994. Sorry for the NHL reference. ;-7 I would be curious to see how many people are cool with a team that has posted great regular season records over the years only to fail in the playoffs. I also wonder how their continued success will stand up once the last of their Big 3 is gone.

I realize I'm probably in the minority on this one, but I would rather be the Braves than the Mets or Marlins for several years after their first championship.

I see the similarities but that is an unfair comparison. The Braves have won their division for 13 years in a row (I believe). The A's aren't even close to that.
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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:37 am

StlSluggers wrote:
Lofuzo wrote:I would like to reiterate that merely based on his said luck, when you can trot 2 of Hudson, Mulder, and Zito out twice and 1 of them once in a 5 game series, they should have won a series once.

Yes, and using that same logic, with the offense the Cardinals had last year, they should have at least won one game against the BoSox.


Well, I know that you are trying to make a point but I will take 4 series or 20 games worth of a sample over 4 games.

It's also not like the Red Sox offense was chopped liver. The Cards had a great offense but so did Boston. Actually, in every statistical analysis, Boston had a better offense than St. Louis last year.
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Postby StlSluggers » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:54 am

Lofunzo wrote:
StlSluggers wrote:
Lofuzo wrote:I would like to reiterate that merely based on his said luck, when you can trot 2 of Hudson, Mulder, and Zito out twice and 1 of them once in a 5 game series, they should have won a series once.

Yes, and using that same logic, with the offense the Cardinals had last year, they should have at least won one game against the BoSox.


Well, I know that you are trying to make a point but I will take 4 series or 20 games worth of a sample over 4 games.

It's also not like the Red Sox offense was chopped liver. The Cards had a great offense but so did Boston. Actually, in every statistical analysis, Boston had a better offense than St. Louis last year.

As long as you understand where I'm going with that, then we'll just agree to disagree on the factor of luck.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:06 am

Lofunzo wrote:
SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:I was waiting for the Yankee/Red Sox comparisons. :-°

I don't see how you can't bring them into the conversation. :-?

Why?? No one has mentioned that they should spend a dime on FA's. :-?
Because they are the antithesis of what Beane is having to do. I suppose the comparison is a bit of a stretch with regard to drafting, but these teams are the ones who can go out and spend the money on the high-risk, high-priced draftees/FAs. Beane is in the business of limiting risk, while these teams have no need for that. IMO you have to look at both sides of the coin in an argument like this one. You have to see what the other teams are donig with their resources in order to put Beane's (in)effectiveness into proper perspective.

Lofunzo wrote:He could put more $$ into foreign scouting.

That's money he doesn't have. That's why he has to rely on the numbers, which is well documented in the book.

He has to have a few pennies to spend there. :-?
Sure he could, but he wouldn't be able to dedicate enough resources to do it properly, so why do something at all if you can only do it half-assed. And he also doesn't weigh the opinion of scouts nearly as heavily as most other teams, so if he has the numbers, he's got most of what he wants anyway.

Lofunzo wrote:He could also do his best to draft the best players possible while still getting his guys. If he is a genius, he should know that Brown is a relative 12th rounder (for example) and draft him in the 11th. You guys make it sound like a 25th pick in the 1st round is gonna want top 3 $$.

He still cost much less than the other first round picks taken around him.

Much less?? How much less than say the 30th pick?? Or compared to the 35th pick?? I don't know but I don't see it as being enough to warrant passing over other talent.
I googled, waded through MLB.com, MiLB.com, googled again, and still can't find minor league contract information, so I'm not going to make a strong assertion one way or the other, but I know he didn't demand the contract/signing bonus of other first round players. Again, Beane is trying to minimize his risk in the case of the inevitable bust. Something like 1% of a draft class every year makes it to the show, and that includes the "sure thing" first rounders.

Lofunzo wrote:As for being competitive year in and year out rather than win 1 and then suck for years, that is interesting. I tend to think that if the fans out there were polled, they would take the latter. I know that there was 54 years in between Cups but Ranger fans aren't happy now because the team sucks but they wouldn't trade anything for that Cup in 1994. Sorry for the NHL reference. ;-7 I would be curious to see how many people are cool with a team that has posted great regular season records over the years only to fail in the playoffs. I also wonder how their continued success will stand up once the last of their Big 3 is gone.

I realize I'm probably in the minority on this one, but I would rather be the Braves than the Mets or Marlins for several years after their first championship.

I see the similarities but that is an unfair comparison. The Braves have won their division for 13 years in a row (I believe). The A's aren't even close to that.
I wasn't trying to say they were, it's just that you brought up the Rangers, so I figured the Braves example was fair game as well. I was just saying that I would prefer my team be able to sniff the playoffs every year even if my team never won it all, but that's just me, and I know I'm in the minority on that one.
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:14 am

I really am enjoying this book so far, and I am impressed by many of the things Beane has done to make this team competitive, but there are also alot of things that annoy me. In the Giambi chapter, when they're all in the video room watching the game, nobody has any emotion, even when the team is getting wrecked.

Giambi is hitting doubles off the wall and Jeter's hitting homeruns. The author is yelling at the TV. DePodesta says it's about the "process" not the "outcome". How is it not about the outcome? I can put a bunch of people out there and expect them to do well, but if they don't, that's what counts. I don't understand how you can deem the outcome insignificant.
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:18 am

As for the minor league contract thing, Beane said one of the players he was interested in was Guthrie. He said Boras, before the draft, had already said he wanted 2.6 million. That immeadiately eliminated him from Beane's list.

He said there were several Boras clients that he wanted but decided he would not even attempt to go after. The previous year, Boras got Teixeira 9.5 million dollars. The guy who went before Teix got 4 million and the guy who went after got like 2.5 million. But Boras still got 9.5 out of Texas.

Brown made like 400,000 give or take.
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Postby StlSluggers » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:19 am

BronXBombers51 wrote:I really am enjoying this book so far, and I am impressed by many of the things Beane has done to make this team competitive, but there are also alot of things that annoy me. In the Giambi chapter, when they're all in the video room watching the game, nobody has any emotion, even when the team is getting wrecked.

Giambi is hitting doubles off the wall and Jeter's hitting homeruns. The author is yelling at the TV. DePodesta says it's about the "process" not the "outcome". How is it not about the outcome? I can put a bunch of people out there and expect them to do well, but if they don't, that's what counts. I don't understand how you can deem the outcome insignificant.

Well, I think the point there is that these guys are so confident in their numbers that they "know" they will win more than they will lose. However, they understand that they will lose. So their job isn't to get concerned about a loss. Their job is to simply evaluate that they are sticking to the plan, because - in their minds - the plan will work given enough time.
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