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Moneyball Question

Postby BronXBombers51 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:52 pm

I just bought the book last night and I'm only about 150 pages (and so far really like it) but I have a question. It's pertaining to the entire subject of Jeremy Brown, the overweight catcher that Beane wanted and none of the scouts liked.

It says that this guy wasn't even on the top 25 catcher list published by Baseball America and every team laughed at the A's when they drafted him.

If this guy was so poorly rated, and "would be lucky to even be drafted," then why did Beane spend a first round pick on him? Couldn't he have gotten him much later and paid him less money as well? If no team saw anything in the kid, why did Beane take advantage and try to get him as late as possible, while getting other talent early on?

I can understand Beane liking the guy, but why would he spend such an early pick when the kid was said to be lucky if he was drafted at all?
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Re: Moneyball Question

Postby JTWood » Mon Jul 11, 2005 8:12 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:I just bought the book last night and I'm only about 150 pages (and so far really like it) but I have a question. It's pertaining to the entire subject of Jeremy Brown, the overweight catcher that Beane wanted and none of the scouts liked.

It says that this guy wasn't even on the top 25 catcher list published by Baseball America and every team laughed at the A's when they drafted him.

If this guy was so poorly rated, and "would be lucky to even be drafted," then why did Beane spend a first round pick on him? Couldn't he have gotten him much later and paid him less money as well? If no team saw anything in the kid, why did Beane take advantage and try to get him as late as possible, while getting other talent early on?

I can understand Beane liking the guy, but why would he spend such an early pick when the kid was said to be lucky if he was drafted at all?

Are you sure you've read the book? It answers that very question...

:-?
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Re: Moneyball Question

Postby Lofunzo » Mon Jul 11, 2005 8:56 pm

JTWood wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:I just bought the book last night and I'm only about 150 pages (and so far really like it) but I have a question. It's pertaining to the entire subject of Jeremy Brown, the overweight catcher that Beane wanted and none of the scouts liked.

It says that this guy wasn't even on the top 25 catcher list published by Baseball America and every team laughed at the A's when they drafted him.

If this guy was so poorly rated, and "would be lucky to even be drafted," then why did Beane spend a first round pick on him? Couldn't he have gotten him much later and paid him less money as well? If no team saw anything in the kid, why did Beane take advantage and try to get him as late as possible, while getting other talent early on?

I can understand Beane liking the guy, but why would he spend such an early pick when the kid was said to be lucky if he was drafted at all?

Are you sure you've read the book? It answers that very question...

:-?


Unfortunately, I left my copy on a plane so I couldn't finish it or reach that part but this dilemma is 1 that is faced by tons of people on fantasy draft day. :-°
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Re: Moneyball Question

Postby BronXBombers51 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:46 pm

JTWood wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:I just bought the book last night and I'm only about 150 pages (and so far really like it) but I have a question. It's pertaining to the entire subject of Jeremy Brown, the overweight catcher that Beane wanted and none of the scouts liked.

It says that this guy wasn't even on the top 25 catcher list published by Baseball America and every team laughed at the A's when they drafted him.

If this guy was so poorly rated, and "would be lucky to even be drafted," then why did Beane spend a first round pick on him? Couldn't he have gotten him much later and paid him less money as well? If no team saw anything in the kid, why did Beane take advantage and try to get him as late as possible, while getting other talent early on?

I can understand Beane liking the guy, but why would he spend such an early pick when the kid was said to be lucky if he was drafted at all?

Are you sure you've read the book? It answers that very question...

:-?


I'm only 150 pages in, but I've read the two chapters dealing with Brown. Where is the answer? All it says is that Beane likes Brown because he's the only catcher who can hit, DePodesta gives Brown's great stats (OBP, K/BB ratio, etc.) and the scouts say his body is awful and advise against drafting him.

I don't think it says why he takes him that early while he could get him much later. If it does, please show me where.
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Re: Moneyball Question

Postby JTWood » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:06 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:
JTWood wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:I just bought the book last night and I'm only about 150 pages (and so far really like it) but I have a question. It's pertaining to the entire subject of Jeremy Brown, the overweight catcher that Beane wanted and none of the scouts liked.

It says that this guy wasn't even on the top 25 catcher list published by Baseball America and every team laughed at the A's when they drafted him.

If this guy was so poorly rated, and "would be lucky to even be drafted," then why did Beane spend a first round pick on him? Couldn't he have gotten him much later and paid him less money as well? If no team saw anything in the kid, why did Beane take advantage and try to get him as late as possible, while getting other talent early on?

I can understand Beane liking the guy, but why would he spend such an early pick when the kid was said to be lucky if he was drafted at all?

Are you sure you've read the book? It answers that very question...

:-?


I'm only 150 pages in, but I've read the two chapters dealing with Brown. Where is the answer? All it says is that Beane likes Brown because he's the only catcher who can hit, DePodesta gives Brown's great stats (OBP, K/BB ratio, etc.) and the scouts say his body is awful and advise against drafting him.

I don't think it says why he takes him that early while he could get him much later. If it does, please show me where.

I can't quote page and line, but he wants the guy because nobody wants him. However, the reason they don't want him holds a basic fallacy of logic. The scouts say he doesn't "look" like a baseball player, but the stats tell Beane otherwise.

So here's the situation in a nutshell: Beane sees a future ball player that no one wants. Even the kid thinks that no one wants him. Beane is all about getting as much as possible for as little as possible. In this case, Beane is in the unique situation where where the least offer is the most.

But he has to act strongly and quickly because people know that once Beane targets a player, there's probably something to the kid. So Beane sweeps in with an offer that the kid can't refuse - be a 1st round pick - in exchange for a long-term agreement that ties the kid to the A's for a while.

Is that what you were looking for?
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Re: Moneyball Question

Postby Lofunzo » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:15 am

JTWood wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:
JTWood wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:I just bought the book last night and I'm only about 150 pages (and so far really like it) but I have a question. It's pertaining to the entire subject of Jeremy Brown, the overweight catcher that Beane wanted and none of the scouts liked.

It says that this guy wasn't even on the top 25 catcher list published by Baseball America and every team laughed at the A's when they drafted him.

If this guy was so poorly rated, and "would be lucky to even be drafted," then why did Beane spend a first round pick on him? Couldn't he have gotten him much later and paid him less money as well? If no team saw anything in the kid, why did Beane take advantage and try to get him as late as possible, while getting other talent early on?

I can understand Beane liking the guy, but why would he spend such an early pick when the kid was said to be lucky if he was drafted at all?

Are you sure you've read the book? It answers that very question...

:-?


I'm only 150 pages in, but I've read the two chapters dealing with Brown. Where is the answer? All it says is that Beane likes Brown because he's the only catcher who can hit, DePodesta gives Brown's great stats (OBP, K/BB ratio, etc.) and the scouts say his body is awful and advise against drafting him.

I don't think it says why he takes him that early while he could get him much later. If it does, please show me where.

I can't quote page and line, but he wants the guy because nobody wants him. However, the reason they don't want him holds a basic fallacy of logic. The scouts say he doesn't "look" like a baseball player, but the stats tell Beane otherwise.

So here's the situation in a nutshell: Beane sees a future ball player that no one wants. Even the kid thinks that no one wants him. Beane is all about getting as much as possible for as little as possible. In this case, Beane is in the unique situation where where the least offer is the most.

But he has to act strongly and quickly because people know that once Beane targets a player, there's probably something to the kid. So Beane sweeps in with an offer that the kid can't refuse - be a 1st round pick - in exchange for a long-term agreement that ties the kid to the A's for a while.

Is that what you were looking for?


Wouldn't it be better if he just kept his mouth shut and let that player fall to the 15th round?? :-? Even if all of the other teams saw him as a 10th rounder at best, couldn't he have just waited until maybe the 8th round or so?? This is especially true if he is a player that would need a few years to develop.
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:22 am

^^^

That's what I'm saying. Beane took this guy first round, and said everyone laughed at him. If everyone was laughing at him, couldn't he have taken better talent at that pick and got the same guy much later and paid him accordingly?

I understand why he liked the player, contrary to what the scouts thought about him. I just don't know why he had to take him so early in the draft considering everyone thought he was crazy for taking him at all?

Just struck me as odd. And I did compare it to fantasy baseball drafts as Lofunzo said. :-D
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:46 am

It took me a while to grasp that as well. However, the way I see it is he [Beane] wasn't going to take the first round guys who would demand astromical contracts/signing bonuses no matter what. Therefore he gets an agreement from the player before hand that he will sign with only the A's at the (very) discounted price, and because once other teams see Beane is interested, they may take him before he falls to the A's in the later rounds. Unless I totally missed the point I think this phillosophy was more to deter players he was eyeing from being scooped up by other teams. I know I didn't do a very good job explaining it, but hope that helps a little. :-?
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:50 am

You also have to keep in mind that this would be like a fantasy draft where one team has many many times the financial resources of the others, so the poorer teams can't take the high-priced talent anyway. So why not take the cheaper player you like better anyway in the first rounds and basically sign him before the draft at a lower price? I'm sure he would have loved to have guys like Kazmir and the others in the book (their names escape me at the moment), but as with so many things for small market teams, finances dictate what you are able to do more than personell decisions at times.
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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:57 am

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:It took me a while to grasp that as well. However, the way I see it is he [Beane] wasn't going to take the first round guys who would demand astromical contracts/signing bonuses no matter what. Therefore he gets an agreement from the player before hand that he will sign with only the A's at the (very) discounted price, and because once other teams see Beane is interested, they may take him before he falls to the A's in the later rounds. Unless I totally missed the point I think this phillosophy was more to deter players he was eyeing from being scooped up by other teams. I know I didn't do a very good job explaining it, but hope that helps a little. :-?


That kinda makes sense in a way but not much sense in others. With that logic, they should move the team then because they will never put out the best team possible. If you pick a guy in the 1st that you could have had in the 10th, you are basically passing on 9 rounds of players in the process while still being able to get your man.
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