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Pitching strategy question for short week

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Postby biju » Sun Jul 10, 2005 6:29 pm

jjigglers wrote:I say you need your closers in there.

I entered your scoring for my team in the last 5 weeks, and Chad Cordero has had more points each week than any pitcher (even the 2 start pitchers) except for one week, and that was where Lidge had the most and Cordero with the second most.

If you have decent closers you need them in there.


This is true, however you absolutely must keep in mind that there are only 4 games this upcoming week. With that in mind your sampling of the last 5 weeks doesn't work. You'd need to take random samplings of 4 day stretches and compare them to starting pitchers. That's the only way to be accurate in this context.

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Postby Leber » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:09 pm

I have the same scoring system and I am facing the same problem. My closers are Rivera, Lidge and Wagner...Im pretty well set against starting lidge becuase he only plays 3 games...but what about Rivera and Wagner? Thanks
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Postby jjigglers » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:18 pm

biju wrote:
jjigglers wrote:I say you need your closers in there.

I entered your scoring for my team in the last 5 weeks, and Chad Cordero has had more points each week than any pitcher (even the 2 start pitchers) except for one week, and that was where Lidge had the most and Cordero with the second most.

If you have decent closers you need them in there.


This is true, however you absolutely must keep in mind that there are only 4 games this upcoming week. With that in mind your sampling of the last 5 weeks doesn't work. You'd need to take random samplings of 4 day stretches and compare them to starting pitchers. That's the only way to be accurate in this context.

-M


I actually took (points per appearance)*(appearances/7 days)*4 days for closers, and simply points per appearance for starters.

Top closers will appear in approximately 2 games in the 4 day period, and will rack up an average of about 9 points per appearance (the random blown save).

I'd think it would be more wise to bank on that than trust that your pitcher can pitch a 18 point night, which is pretty darn good (but still very do-able for the top starters).

Top starters and top closers need to be in the lineup.
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Postby kimchi_chigae » Mon Jul 11, 2005 12:06 am

for this short week i would definitely go with all starters for the pitching spots.

using the closers is a high risk high reward kinda situation, but i don't think you should go for it. if you have 7 SP in the there for the week...that should be enough for you to win the week. save opps are just way too random. with the starters you are almost guarantee to get some points...

say your starters have a line of 6IP 6H 3ER 2BB 3K...an average line...nothing great...not a disaster. that will give you 8 points...not counting a win. a closer will likely get 13 points if he gets the SV opp...only 5 more than a starter's average line and that is if he doesn't allow a hit and strikeout a batter. in a short week like this one...the chances of your closers getting more than one SV opp in not very good...heck they might even not get a single one...and with 3 or 4 closers in there i'm willing to bet that one of them will see no SV opp this week.

some of your startes will get rocked in theirs outings, but some of them will have great starts and i'm pretty sure they will balance out each other and give you a good amount of points this week. with the closers in there...you might win big...but might also not score a lot.

what is your opponent going with? is he using closers or is he going with all starters?

and...in leagues like this one...a guy like mike maroth could be huge for you cuz he pitches deep into the ballgames. not gonna give you great numbers, but will likely not have a terrible outing and an OK start from your pitchers is all you asking for...they don't need to be great, but they need not to get chased early from the game.
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