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A's sign Kotsay to 3-year extension...

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Postby beltrans_boy » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:30 pm

so0perspam wrote:I meant "should be". He isn't top 50 in OBP, OPS, BA, or SLG.

No, but he is 30th in the league in Runs Created tied with Aramis Ramirez and Pat Burrell, and that's a huge statistic. That's one of the reason why his batting Win Shares are so high.

The Hardball Times wrote:Runs Created. Invented by Bill James, RC is a very good measure of the number of runs a batter truly contributed to his team’s offense. The basic formula for RC is OBP*TB, but it has evolved into over fourteen different versions. We use the most complicated version, which includes the impact of hitting well with runners in scoring position, and is adjusted for ballpark impact.

;-D
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Postby beltrans_boy » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:47 pm

In case you're curious, here's how RC is calculated:
http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/2004/1 ... -runs.html
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Postby so0perspam » Mon Jul 11, 2005 4:27 pm

Being that I don't have the time right now to go read that lengthy blog, why isn't his RBI total around 60 if he creates that many runs? :-?
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Postby beltrans_boy » Mon Jul 11, 2005 4:50 pm

so0perspam wrote:Being that I don't have the time right now to go read that lengthy blog, why isn't his RBI total around 60 if he creates that many runs? :-?

Runs Created doesn't really concern itself with RBI or Run totals. That would be comparing apples to oranges. RC is a theoretical estimator of the number of runs that a player creates over the course of a season. I suggest you take a look at that link I posted, it might help to clarify some things for you...

Maybe this will help you understand the concept a little better...there's a derivative of Runs Created; RC/27. RC/27 estimates how many runs a lineup made up of 9 Mark Kotsay's would score on a per game basis. Kotsay's RC/27 for 2004 was 6.36. That means, using a theoretical model of how runs are scored in a baseball game tested against 100+ years of baseball data, a team of 2004 Mark Kotsay's would score 6.36 runs/game.

This year, he's right around that number again. His RC/27 in 2005 is higher than Andruw Jones, Vernon Wells, Brady Clark, Hank Blalock, and Carl Crawford. He's right around Ichiro Suzuki, Jason Varitek, Garrett Anderson and Derek Jeter...and there's merely in terms of offensive output. We haven't even started talking about defense yet!

8-o
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Postby Half Massed » Mon Jul 11, 2005 5:10 pm

so0perspam wrote:I meant "should be". He isn't top 50 in OBP, OPS, BA, or SLG.


there's more to a good hitter than statistics. if a guy swings for the fences every time and doesn't know how to make a productive out or do what the situation calls for, his OPS ans SLG and the like might still be high, but say you had one out and a man at second in a very low scoring game where the pitchers are dominating. this is the closest your team has got to scoring all game and you need to move the runner to third. would you rather have a guy like adam dunn batting, who's as likely to strike out as he is to connect with the ball, or a guy like kotsay, who knows how to connect and make a productive out? there's a lot more to hitting than smashing HR's or even getting on base all the time. it's the situational stuff that helps make kotsay a good hitter. and just to continue with this hypothetical, if the other team had a man on third with two outs, as a pitcher, manager, or any part of the team, i'd be much more comfortable with kotsay in center who i know can make a great defensive play to save the bloop single that someone like bernie williams would have missed, or to at least make the runners think twice about going for extra bases or heading home when the ball's hit to center. there are more things to take into account when judging a player's worth than your standard 8x8 stats.
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Postby Dawgpound 1613 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 5:51 pm

beltrans_boy wrote:This year, he's right around that number again. His RC/27 in 2005 is higher than Andruw Jones, Vernon Wells, Brady Clark, Hank Blalock, and Carl Crawford. He's right around Ichiro Suzuki, Jason Varitek, Garrett Anderson and Derek Jeter...and there's merely in terms of offensive output. We haven't even started talking about defense yet!

8-o


This is where my issue with stats like win shares and RC/27. I know the stats involved are more "complex" than the following, but when Andruw Jones is at:

.272/.352/.578 in 327 AB, 15 2B/2 3B/27 HR, 50 R/67 RBI, 2 SB/2 CS and a 36/64 BB/K ratio

while Mark Kotsay is at:

.281/.335/.413 in 349 AB, 20 2B/1 3B/8 HR, 45 R/ 48 RBI, 4 SB/3 CS and a 29/31 BB/K ratio

and yet RC/27 says 9 Mark Kotsays will score more runs than 9 Andruw Jones - I just don't see it. I know the extra 33 K are bad, but I'll take the almost .200 higher OPS any day - and I don't think the difference in defense between Kotsay and AJ is THAT much different.

Anyway, my biggest complaint about certain stats is the subjectivity that goes into what factors will be considered and the weight that is to be assigned to each factor. And when a stat is created that tells me that 9 Mark Kotsays would score more runs than 9 Andruw Jones, yet almost every major offensive stat says otherwise (including the vaunted OPS), you'll have to excuse me if I don't agree with the factors that are considered and the weight that is assigned to each factor - and therefore that stat as a whole.

However, If Beane and the A's feel he is worth $8M/year, more power to them. He is a good player and a very good defensive player, and in today's market $8M isn't unreasonable for someone of his caliber. I just don't see it as being that much of a bargain.
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