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A's sign Kotsay to 3-year extension...

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Postby beltrans_boy » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:51 pm

so0perspam wrote:(Runs saved) + (Runs produced) = (Win Shares) is the problem I have with it. 50% of it shouldn't be runs saved. Compare the nasty stuff that the pitchers of today have against the routine grounder or the routine flyball. Good hitting skills are much more essential IMO than fielding skills. The equation should be something like (.25 X Runs saved) + (.75 X Runs Produced) = (Win Shares). My analylsis of fielding thus far may look like I don't put an emphasis upon it all, but that's not true. A team does not some good defense to be successful. But compared to hitting, it's value takes a huge hit.

But if you save 1 run, isn't that just as valuable as producing 1 run? Win Shares are caluclated in such a way that only 25-40% of the defensive win shares for a team are credited to fielders. That's 25-40% of that "Runs saved" part of the equation. The rest are credited to the pitcher. Win Shares doesn't put fielding and hitting on equal footing for the exact reason that you outlined above. However, it does account for fielding, which is an important (albeit smaller) part of the game.
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Postby so0perspam » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:54 pm

Then how is Mark Kotsay a top 50 player with hitting statistics like that??
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Postby George_Foreman » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:54 pm

so0perspam wrote:(Runs saved) + (Runs produced) = (Win Shares) is the problem I have with it. 50% of it shouldn't be runs saved. Compare the nasty stuff that the pitchers of today have against the routine grounder or the routine flyball. Good hitting skills are much more essential IMO than fielding skills. The equation should be something like (.25 X Runs saved) + (.75 X Runs Produced) = (Win Shares). My analylsis of fielding thus far may look like I don't put an emphasis upon it all, but that's not true. A team does not some good defense to be successful. But compared to hitting, it's value takes a huge hit.


but the way win shares are calculated is based on the marginal runs prevented a team had (the number of runs a team allowed, park adjusted, relative to the number of runs the league allowed on average). this is then divided between pitching win shares and hitting win shares based on how many balls were put in play (i think fielders and pitchers split the "credit" for the out 50/50 on balls hit in play and the pitcher takes sole responsibiltiy for Ks) and a ratio of (IIRC) 70% pitching:30% fielding comes out for the defensive win shares a team gets. the fielding win shares are then allocated to the players on the team. so really, fielders get something like 65% of the total win shares a team gets (roughly 50% for offensive win shares and then another 30% of the 50% for defensive win shares, or another 15% (.30*.50=.15) for a total of about 65%). so really, your ratio of of .75*offense+.25*defense is about right, except james weights it slightly more towards hitting than you do. ( 8-o )

what this all means is that if kotsay really has enough win shares to bring him on par with the likes of miguel cabrera, he must REALLY be good defensively go get that many win shares. i mean REALLY good. frickin super-amazing good.

edit: doh! BB beat me to it (and said it more succinctly, i might add >_<) but yeah. the fact that kotsay is top-50 just means that he really is "frickin super-amazing good" defensively.
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Postby so0perspam » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:59 pm

George_Foreman wrote:so really, your ratio of of .75*offense+.25*defense is about right, except james weights it slightly more towards hitting than you do. ( 8-o )

what this all means is that if kotsay really has enough win shares to bring him on par with the likes of miguel cabrera, he must REALLY be good defensively go get that many win shares. i mean REALLY good. frickin super-amazing good.


That doesn't make sense though. Assume that the Win Shares system is 80% hitting and 20% fielding. Hypothetically then, if 100 was the highest a player could get, then Kotsay would receive about 19 or 20 Win Shares from fielding. That means that he gets around 70 Win Shares out of a possible 80 from hitting??? :-?
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Postby George_Foreman » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:09 pm

no. it doesn't work like that. it's not a scale or a percentage or something where the "best" players get 100...

think of it this way: the best players get 30 (or something) win shares.
miguel cabrera has 2 defensive win shares and 28 offensive ones. mark kotsay gets 15 offensive win shares and 15 defensive win shares. so they both have 30, although they get them in different ways.

although a team's total win shares for position players will be in a ratio of about 3 or 4 to 1 (offensive to defensive), an individual player's may not be. in kotsay's case, his value is largely derived from his defense. in jim thome's case, he gets very few defensive win shares and quite a few offensive ones.
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Postby so0perspam » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:23 pm

But then the whole Win Shares system is fundamentally flawed, because it really measures how much a player contributes to his team's success rather than how good he really is. If Kotsay moved to an underachieving team stacked with talent like the Yankees, his Win Share total would tail off significantly.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:10 pm

so0perspam wrote:But then the whole Win Shares system is fundamentally flawed, because it really measures how much a player contributes to his team's success rather than how good he really is.

Isn't that the same thing? A good player contributes more to his teams success than a bad player.

For what it's worth, Mark Kotsay had 15.9 Batting Win Shares and 5.9 Fielding Win Shares in 2004. This year he has 9.7 Batting Win Shares and 3.7 Fielding Win Shares.

As you can see, his fielding Win Shares are great (one of the top OF numbers), but the majority of his WS value is derived from his batting Win Shares. Last year, Kotsay was in the top-65 in Batting Win Shares. This year, he's in the top-65 yet again. When we look only at the outfield position, he's in the top-25. His defense is excellent, but his hitting rates very high as well. In fact, the majority of his Win Share value is derived from hitting.

...and isn't that exactly what you're arguing so0perspam?

:-?
Last edited by beltrans_boy on Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby so0perspam » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:11 pm

Again, I just don't see how his Win Share total from his hitting is that high.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:17 pm

so0perspam wrote:Again, I just don't see how his Win Share total from his hitting is that high.

Again, I thought you said that you understood Win Shares and how they were calculated? Basically, it involves 2 metrics: Runs created, and outs made.

There are a ton of variables that go into "Runs created" calculation, but it starts out with OBP times total bases. Then the player is credited for things like stolen bases, caught stealing, GIDP, BA with RISP, HRs with RISP, etc. Little things that don't show up in an 8x8 box score...

;-D
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Postby so0perspam » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:21 pm

I meant "should be". He isn't top 50 in OBP, OPS, BA, or SLG.
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