Regression Analysis - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to General Talk

Regression Analysis

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Regression Analysis

Postby JTWood » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:36 pm

I know we have some stat heads here, and I need some help refreshing my memory on regression analysis. I have an output (N = 14) that I think might be based on three variables. When I ran the analysis, I got the following figures:

R-square = .86886
Intercept = -12.92890
Beta X = 13.1782
Beta Y = 0.80400
Beta Z = 16.5652

The Beta for Z seemed extraordinarily high to me, so I ran the analysis with just Z, and I got a number that seemed really odd to me:

R-square = 0.00363

So I ran the analysis again with X and Y, but without Z, and got:

R-square = 0.81803

Does this mean that variable Z is really doing nothing for my overall equation?
Image
JTWood
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle EyeWeb Supporter
Posts: 11508
Joined: 22 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Unincorporated Heaven

Postby Big Pimpin » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:42 pm

That's exactly what it means. An R-sq of 1 would mean that 100% of the variability in your dependent variable can be explained by your independent variable. With your R-sq of almost zero, it means Z is adding virtually nothing.
Big Pimpin
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterMatchup Meltdown ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 13710
(Past Year: 5)
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Building a metric. And being ignorable and stupid.

Postby JTWood » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:45 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:That's exactly what it means. An R-sq of 1 would mean that 100% of the variability in your dependent variable can be explained by your independent variable. With your R-sq of almost zero, it means Z is adding virtually nothing.

Thanks. That's what I thought, but the .05 increase of from X & Y to X, Y, & Z was throwing me off.

Greatly appreciated!

;-D
Image
JTWood
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle EyeWeb Supporter
Posts: 11508
Joined: 22 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Unincorporated Heaven

Re: Regression Analysis

Postby Shadow of the Sun* » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:39 pm

JTWood wrote:I know we have some stat heads here, and I need some help refreshing my memory on regression analysis. I have an output (N = 14) that I think might be based on three variables. When I ran the analysis, I got the following figures:

R-square = .86886
Intercept = -12.92890
Beta X = 13.1782
Beta Y = 0.80400
Beta Z = 16.5652

The Beta for Z seemed extraordinarily high to me, so I ran the analysis with just Z, and I got a number that seemed really odd to me:

R-square = 0.00363

So I ran the analysis again with X and Y, but without Z, and got:

R-square = 0.81803

Does this mean that variable Z is really doing nothing for my overall equation?


8-o That went way over my head. :*)
Image
Shadow of the Sun*
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 547
Joined: 20 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Regression Analysis

Postby Phatferd » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:59 pm

Shadow of the Sun* wrote:
JTWood wrote:I know we have some stat heads here, and I need some help refreshing my memory on regression analysis. I have an output (N = 14) that I think might be based on three variables. When I ran the analysis, I got the following figures:

R-square = .86886
Intercept = -12.92890
Beta X = 13.1782
Beta Y = 0.80400
Beta Z = 16.5652

The Beta for Z seemed extraordinarily high to me, so I ran the analysis with just Z, and I got a number that seemed really odd to me:

R-square = 0.00363

So I ran the analysis again with X and Y, but without Z, and got:

R-square = 0.81803

Does this mean that variable Z is really doing nothing for my overall equation?


8-o That went way over my head. :*)


Booooooooooooooooooooo Math :-t
Phatferd
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4058
Joined: 6 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Highway 10

Postby RyanK » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:27 pm

yeah.. thats some rough stuff.. you going that for fun JT?
RyanK
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Graphics Expert
Posts: 2839
(Past Year: 4)
Joined: 15 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby WharfRat » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:28 pm

Did you guys go to school for that? I'm actually gonna be getting my masters in public policy, and I'll need to get plenty deep into that stuff.... :-o
1 3 4 6 7 8 8 9 10 15 16 23 32 37 42 44 49 51

8.14.07: "I guess heaven needed a shortstop."
WharfRat
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 3056
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Walking my fish

Postby JTWood » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:44 pm

RyanK wrote:yeah.. thats some rough stuff.. you doing that for fun JT?

Doing it for our league. You saw that stuff that daullaz posted, right? We were trying to throw all of that into a formula to predict wins in a given season, or to at least determine what events were more important to determining wins. You know that managerial efficiency stat we posted? It's either worthless as a predictor, or I'm just not using it correctly.

I'm going to try some other stuff out. We'll see how it comes out...
Image
JTWood
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle EyeWeb Supporter
Posts: 11508
Joined: 22 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Unincorporated Heaven

Postby JTWood » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:45 pm

WharfRat wrote:Did you guys go to school for that?

I have an Accounting degree, and I took a couple stat classes. The stuff in the first post is pretty basic. There's plenty more complicated stuff than what I posted. I just remember how to do this stuff because Excel will do all of calculations for you.
Image
JTWood
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle EyeWeb Supporter
Posts: 11508
Joined: 22 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Unincorporated Heaven

Postby Big Pimpin » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:44 pm

I have a degree in Actuarial Mathematics. It's a mix of math (including stats) and business. Basically what it boils down to is measuring risk.
Big Pimpin
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterMatchup Meltdown ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 13710
(Past Year: 5)
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Building a metric. And being ignorable and stupid.

Next

Return to General Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: unioreimi and 3 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Friday, Apr. 18
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Toronto at Cleveland
(2:20 pm)
LA Angels at Detroit
(7:05 pm)
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
(7:05 pm)
St. Louis at Washington
(7:05 pm)
Miami at Miami
(7:08 pm)
indoors
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Seattle at Seattle
(7:10 pm)
Atlanta at NY Mets
(7:10 pm)
Baltimore at Boston
(7:10 pm)
Chi White Sox at Texas
(8:05 pm)
Minnesota at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Philadelphia at Colorado
(8:40 pm)
Houston at Oakland
(10:05 pm)
Arizona at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)
San Francisco at San Diego
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact