GotowarMissAgnes wrote:For a team, yes, the game is 50/50. For a player, it is not. You cannot say hitting and defense are 50/50 for both a left fielder and a catcher. One is involved in an huge number more defensive plays than the other. Only one player is involved in defending every potential scoring play. Also, the disparity between a great hitting catcher and a poor hitting catcher is not nearly as great as at other positions.
In fact, hitting is MORE than 50% of the game for every position player, because the defensive side of the game is heavily determined by pitching. It's not simply the number of plays one is involved in, but the impact those plays have on the outcome of the game, and the influence the player has on those plays. Touches does not equal importance. To your point on variance, catching the pitch, which even the worst catcher does 99.5 percent of the time, varies too little for it to be much of an important factor.
Just look at a measure like win shares. Of the top ten catchers in total win shares, just 3 derive the majority of those win shares from fielding. Of the top 30, just 10 get the majority of their value from fielding. On average, those top ten have 5.5 win shares from batting, 3.5 from fielding, for a 60/40 weight in favor of their offensive value.