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Garland's second half

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Postby baseballnewb » Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:12 pm

I would not bet on Garland breaking 20 wins, no way on 25 wins. The white sox as a team will slide in the second half and garland will most likely post a 3.5 era or so.
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Postby tmoney » Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:25 pm

I dont understand all this doubt about whether Jon Garland will keep up his current pace for the rest of the season. Do people really think that he has limited talent and has gotten 13 wins and a 3.29 ERA by luck? The reality is that Garland has no more talent this year than last year, but has matured immensely and (with the help of AJP) has been able to maintain his composure after giving up a few hits or watching an error behind him. He hasnt gotten lucky or more talented, he has figured out how to pitch, which is the major explanation for his success. He is consistently locating his pitches and throwing the right pitch in the right situation, something he has not done in the past.

But, I can see how someone might not be sold on what Garland has accomplished this season, his numbers now are no where near his career averages. And you could argue that he has had high run support which is why he has 13 wins. I can buy that. BUT if you take away 2 of Garland's wins from the outings when he gave up 6 ER each, and that still leaves him with 11 wins. Not too bad. Also, Garland has a 2.04 ERA over his past 3 starts, so there goes the argument that his numbers are not as good now as they have been all season. So I am guessing that people will still use the argument that he has not done this in his career, but as I said above, he is not the same pitcher as in the past. See Dontrelle Willis.

Before you go and call me a homer, let me say that I understand there is a chance that Garland falls apart and doesnt come close to what he has accomplished in the first half of this season, anything can happen. But that can be said about a lot of pitchers in MLB, so I am trying to figure out what makes people think Garland is a more likely candidate to fall apart than the next guy?

What suprises me most is that it seems most people would be suprised if Garland would get 7 wins and an ERA below 4.00 from here on out. I could easily see Garland getting 7+ wins (a little over half of what he has so far) and an ERA between 3.2-3.5 from here on out. That would put him with 20+ wins and an ERA somewhere around 3.35 for the season, which to me does not sound unrealistic.

Im not saying he will have the same success, and Im not trying knock down anyone else's predictions. I am just trying to get people to think about it a little more before they jump on the "sell" wagon. It seems that alot of people are in the "sell" mode for Garland, so it may be difficult to get the other owners to buy into the stats he has put up this season. So if I was trying to deal Garland, I would probably rather take a chance on Garland coming close to repeating his first half numbers, because I dont see a reason to think otherwise.
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Postby ReginaldVelJohnson » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:42 pm

I'd sell high on Garland. I traded him for Bartolo Colon straight up.
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Postby baseballnewb » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:50 pm

There is on question he has improved, just look at his walk rate on the year. However his numbers point towards a 3.50 era to me, the low K's, the relatively high HR's. Nothing wrong with a pitcher posting a 3.50 ERA for half a year, I just don't see him as an elite guy who should expect better than that in a hitters park in the AL.
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