Does anyone know where I can find a list of players who's contracts are up NEXT YEAR? I will try and draft as many players who have contract years as I can for next year and hopefully they will turn out like Adrian Beltre (2004) or Javy Lopez (2003). Anyway, that would just be a good strategy for me next year I think. thanks.
There's plenty of guys who have monsterous years in non-walk years, and plenty of guys who struggle to locate the ball (See: Furcal) during contract years. Any time a guy is in the last year of his contract, they're labeled as doing it, but I think it's more coincidental, in that they only bring it up then.
In the NFL, however, where you basically play for your signing bonus, with contracts that are not guaranteed, I think it is more prevalent.
I think there is an argument for both sides: pro-contract year theory guys like Beltre last year/Javy the year before; but in the anti-contract year theory department, see "Pierre, Juan."
However, personally, I only use the contract year as a tie breaker between two equally-ranked players (akin to strength of rushing schedule if I'm deciding between two running backs I have ranked dead even in fant. football). I'd never let a potential contract year upswing make me pass over a better player for a slightly lesser player in his contract year.
You have to know the player closely, know his health, the lineup he will be in, the opposing pitchers and a many other things to really have an shot at accurately predicting if he will be a Beltre.
i think it somewhat depends on the the player as a person. this is hard to tell through stats of course, but if the player is someone who only plays hard when he wants to, or tends to not go all out all the time, they might be affected by a contract year. but if the guy always plays his hardest it has no bearing. obviously there are exceptions to both ends, but its one thing to look at if you're guessing on a guy's performance in a contract year.