HALF SEASON FALLACIES - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

HALF SEASON FALLACIES

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

HALF SEASON FALLACIES

Postby bd3521 » Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:37 pm

This is a worthwhile read since most are searching for the second half stud to take them to a championship.

This is from Shandler...

Writers are starting to wisen up, but it pays to mention this as
a caution to unsuspecting readers out there.

If you ever read that someone is a consistent "first half" or
"second half" player, turn the page. Several statistical sources
make available 5-year averages for players, and writers
occasionally use this data to draw incorrect conclusions.

For instance, you might read that, over the past 5 years, Player
X has an ERA of 4.50 before the break, but 3.25 after. The writer
might use this as support to project an improvement in
performance for that player.

This is garbage - don't believe it.

What the writer neglects to tell you is that those 5-year
averages are AGGREGATE figures. They do NOT represent CONSISTENT
trends. In other words, the player mentioned above might have
year-to-year ERAs that look like this:

1st half 2nd half
======== ========
Year 1 5.20 2.05
Year 2 3.71 3.67
Year 3 3.26 4.00
Year 4 5.15 2.82
Year 5 3.97 4.01

Aggregate 4.50 3.25

Would you consider that this data set foretells a player who
improves consistently in the second half?

Not really.
[url]http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm[/url]
bd3521
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1082
Joined: 11 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Northern NJ

Postby theclefe » Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:40 pm

I have never really bought summaries like that. Even if there is a decent trend, I feel it is somewhat arbitrary.
Image
theclefe
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown Survivor
Posts: 1747
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 27 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Rakeville

Postby stumpak » Tue Jun 28, 2005 2:27 pm

This is actually an excellent point that people often overlook.
stumpak
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2729
Joined: 9 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Washington, DC

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Jun 28, 2005 2:53 pm

stumpak wrote:This is actually an excellent point that people often overlook.


Tell that to the droves of people still insisting to run out and get Aubry Huff at all costs. If you're not breaking things down yearly, bi-yearly, and even monthly, you're probably missing out on the most important information.
Image
bigh0rt
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 24644
(Past Year: 818)
Joined: 3 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Crowding The Plate

Postby Fool42 » Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:08 pm

If you assume that every writer is using aggregrate #'s to define a first or second half producer then your info is no less garbage.
All of the true things I am about to tell you are shameless lies
Fool42
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 391
Joined: 8 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: IL

Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:14 pm

Fool42 wrote:If you assume that every writer is using aggregrate #'s to define a first or second half producer then your info is no less garbage.


That's true. But it's rare to find a player with a consistent trend in either half. The only stock I'd put in it is a young pitcher tiring out. But in general, I agree that the half-season splits probably aren't too useful. (However, as far as Huff as concerned, I still have faith in him - not because he's a second-half hitter, but just because he's a good hitter who isn't playing as well as he's able to.)
JustAnotherYanksFan
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1004
Joined: 25 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Fantasy Guru » Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:42 pm

Well, I'd certainly take the second half performance in year 1. ;-D
ImageYeah.. this "fantasy guru" thing is just a user name, folks.
Fantasy Guru
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1811
Joined: 16 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cooperstown

Postby Constantine » Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:47 pm

A little off topic, but not horribly so.
Where can I find stats from the last few seasons divded into first and second half so I can make my own decisions?
Constantine
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 169
Joined: 29 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Cleveland Steamers » Tue Jun 28, 2005 5:51 pm

Shandler is an idiot. And anyone that would look at averaged stat splits that are based on already averaged numbers such as ERA, Whip, BA,and others is obviously not a knowledgable baseball fan/fantasy player.
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... t=shandler
Cleveland Steamers
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 3739
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 12 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Everywhere...looking for a job in baseball...or fantasy sports...

Postby bd3521 » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:55 pm

Constantine wrote:A little off topic, but not horribly so.
Where can I find stats from the last few seasons divded into first and second half so I can make my own decisions?
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/6039/splits?year=career&type=Batting
[url]http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm[/url]
bd3521
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1082
Joined: 11 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Northern NJ


Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: apz, unioreimi and 4 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Sunday, Apr. 20
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Toronto at Cleveland
(1:05 pm)
LA Angels at Detroit
(1:08 pm)
Seattle at Miami
(1:10 pm)
indoors
Atlanta at NY Mets
(1:10 pm)
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
(1:35 pm)
St. Louis at Washington
(1:35 pm)
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
(1:40 pm)
indoors
Minnesota at Kansas City
(2:10 pm)
Cincinnati at Chi Cubs
(2:20 pm)
Chi White Sox at Texas
(3:05 pm)
Houston at Oakland
(4:05 pm)
Philadelphia at Colorado
(4:10 pm)
Arizona at LA Dodgers
(4:10 pm)
San Francisco at San Diego
(4:10 pm)
Baltimore at Boston
(7:05 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact