HALF SEASON FALLACIES

[bd3521]

This is a worthwhile read since most are searching for the second half stud to take them to a championship.

This is from Shandler...

Writers are starting to wisen up, but it pays to mention this as
a caution to unsuspecting readers out there.

If you ever read that someone is a consistent "first half" or
"second half" player, turn the page. Several statistical sources
make available 5-year averages for players, and writers
occasionally use this data to draw incorrect conclusions.

For instance, you might read that, over the past 5 years, Player
X has an ERA of 4.50 before the break, but 3.25 after. The writer
might use this as support to project an improvement in
performance for that player.

This is garbage - don't believe it.

What the writer neglects to tell you is that those 5-year
averages are AGGREGATE figures. They do NOT represent CONSISTENT
trends. In other words, the player mentioned above might have
year-to-year ERAs that look like this:

1st half 2nd half
======== ========
Year 1 5.20 2.05
Year 2 3.71 3.67
Year 3 3.26 4.00
Year 4 5.15 2.82
Year 5 3.97 4.01

Aggregate 4.50 3.25

Would you consider that this data set foretells a player who
improves consistently in the second half?

Not really.

[theclefe]

I have never really bought summaries like that. Even if there is a decent trend, I feel it is somewhat arbitrary.

[stumpak]

This is actually an excellent point that people often overlook.

[bigh0rt]

This is actually an excellent point that people often overlook.

Tell that to the droves of people still insisting to run out and get Aubry Huff at all costs. If you're not breaking things down yearly, bi-yearly, and even monthly, you're probably missing out on the most important information.

[Fool42]

If you assume that every writer is using aggregrate #'s to define a first or second half producer then your info is no less garbage.

[JustAnotherYanksFan]

If you assume that every writer is using aggregrate #'s to define a first or second half producer then your info is no less garbage.

That's true. But it's rare to find a player with a consistent trend in either half. The only stock I'd put in it is a young pitcher tiring out. But in general, I agree that the half-season splits probably aren't too useful. (However, as far as Huff as concerned, I still have faith in him - not because he's a second-half hitter, but just because he's a good hitter who isn't playing as well as he's able to.)

[Fantasy Guru]

Well, I'd certainly take the second half performance in year 1.

[Constantine]

A little off topic, but not horribly so.
Where can I find stats from the last few seasons divded into first and second half so I can make my own decisions?

[Cleveland Steamers]

Shandler is an idiot. And anyone that would look at averaged stat splits that are based on already averaged numbers such as ERA, Whip, BA,and others is obviously not a knowledgable baseball fan/fantasy player.
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... t=shandler

[bd3521]

A little off topic, but not horribly so.
Where can I find stats from the last few seasons divded into first and second half so I can make my own decisions?

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/6039/splits?year=career&type=Batting