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B2B starts against the same team

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B2B starts against the same team

Postby klvrdude » Tue Jun 28, 2005 12:48 am

I have no statistical proof to back this up, but I tend to notice that pitchers that pitch to the same team in back to back starts tend to get lit up. I believe that its to the hitters advantage to have recently gone up against the pitcher and see his tendencies in particular situations.

Does anyone have any statistics to prove or disprove this?

Thanks!
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Postby EK711 » Tue Jun 28, 2005 2:30 am

Kevin Millwood against Boston on 6/21: 6IP 6ER
Kevin Millwood against Boston on 6/27: 6IP 0ER


Bronson Arroyo against Cleveland on 6/21: 7IP 1ER
Bronson Arroyo against Cleveland on 6/27: 6.2IP 5ER


As soon as I read this theory it made me think of how different the stats were for Arroyo and Millwood in their last starts. :-b Just two cases though, so it hardly disproves anything. In general though, I'm not sure where one would go to look for such stats... :-?
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Postby klvrdude » Tue Jun 28, 2005 11:48 am

Good examples.

I guess I was thinking more along the lines that most pitchers don't have back to back good outtings.
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Postby Nerfherders » Tue Jun 28, 2005 12:44 pm

We shall see tonight again. Dontrelle Willis goes up against Jorge Sosa in a rematch from last Wednesday.
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Postby Steve-o » Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:06 pm

I don't have any stats to back this up, but it has always been one of my rules not to start a pitcher the second time around if it is less than a week's time.

I guess would start a guy twice if he were my "ace" or he was playing a really bad team. Mediocre guys I wouldn't do it.
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Postby WittyC » Tue Jun 28, 2005 2:13 pm

Rule of thumb in baseball is that the more times a hitter sees a pitcher, the bigger the advantage will be for the hitter. It's just the nature of the beast.

But there are so many other circumstances at play when a pitcher throws back-to-back games against the same team. The wind, the playing condition of the field, the pitch-count from the last game, the strike zone given by the umps, and command of pitches can simply fluctuate from game to game. There are too many variables to make a blanket statement about b2b starts against the same team, IMO. Therefore, I tend to disregard this. If I thought it was a good matchup the first time, I'll probably throw the guy back out there again (see: Zamby vs. Mil... I'll be starting him again after his 8 ER against them in his last start).
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Postby WittyC » Tue Jun 28, 2005 10:47 pm

I don't like to toot my own horn, but...

|>-iii- :-°
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Postby klvrdude » Tue Jun 28, 2005 11:32 pm

WittyC wrote:I don't like to toot my own horn, but...

|>-iii- :-°


I like the horn, but I think you misunderstood my question. I was looking for a pitcher to pitch two good games b2b...not one bad and one good. For instance I was watching Willis tonight and saw that he couldn't repeat against ATL.
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Postby nuggets » Tue Jun 28, 2005 11:56 pm

WittyC wrote:Rule of thumb in baseball is that the more times a hitter sees a pitcher, the bigger the advantage will be for the hitter. It's just the nature of the beast.



I think that's true in the average case but we're talking about the best, usually, when we talk fantasy baseball. IMHO guys like Maddux and Schilling who were hit earlier in thier careers by certain players figure them out over time. But we're getting in to super subjective stuff here. I think it's best to concentrate on:

WittyC wrote: ...other circumstances... The wind, the playing condition of the field, the pitch-count from the last game, the strike zone given by the umps, and command of pitches can simply fluctuate from game to game.


ect....
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