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Postby AKhomebrewer » Mon Jun 27, 2005 11:38 am

All I know is the dude's flat getting it done. If he keeps it up, should be a good battle with Dontrelle for NL Cy.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Mon Jun 27, 2005 11:39 am

Yoda wrote:Oops... not sure why I posted 10 times but...

Clearly Yahoo weighs countables at a much higher value than the averages. Halladay is ranked behind Carpenter despite the same number of W's, better ERA and a much better WHIP. Makes no sense.

And Carpenter has 20 more Ks. That is why. Any way you cut it, Carpenter is one of the top 3 pitchers so far.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Jun 27, 2005 11:39 am

Clearly, Carpenter is having a super season. He is also in the middle of a hot streak. ESPN's player rater is a better tool for rankings although it does not adjust the numbers for position:

http://games.espn.go.com/cgi/flb/reques ... 1&Param4=0
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Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jun 27, 2005 11:40 am

I don't think it's all that outlandish...

K/9:
Halladay - 6.71
Carpenter - 8.87

Carpenter has allowed less hits, less homeruns, has allowed one more earned run than Halladay, has 3 CGSOs to Halladay's 2, identical record...

It's not like you're putting some flopping pitcher ahead of Halladay so far this year. Roy's ERA and WHIP numbers are better than Carpenter's, but not by a ton, and beyond that, other than K/BB, Carpenter edges him in a lot of areas. So while I don't think Yahoo! has the greatest rankings, I certainly wouldn't call them garbage.
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Postby Cooner » Mon Jun 27, 2005 11:42 am

Yoda wrote:Oops... not sure why I posted 10 times but...

Clearly Yahoo weighs countables at a much higher value than the averages. Halladay is ranked behind Carpenter despite the same number of W's, better ERA and a much better WHIP. Makes no sense.


Well, ERAs are 2.51 to 2.77 (for Halladay) and WHIPs are 0.94 to 1.12 (for Halladay), but Carpenter has Halladay by 21 Ks. It's tough to say without actually working it out, but I'm guessing that the differences in ERA/WHIP is small when you consider that they're both tiny compared to a replacement player's ERA/WHIP (roughly 4.00, 1.35), while the difference in projected Ks for the season is much bigger relative to a replacement player's Ks (about 130).

I agree- I think Yahoo tends to overweight countables a bit- but in this case, I think Carpenter takes the top spot.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Jun 27, 2005 11:48 am

Cooner wrote:
Yoda wrote:Oops... not sure why I posted 10 times but...

Clearly Yahoo weighs countables at a much higher value than the averages. Halladay is ranked behind Carpenter despite the same number of W's, better ERA and a much better WHIP. Makes no sense.


Well, ERAs are 2.51 to 2.77 (for Halladay) and WHIPs are 0.94 to 1.12 (for Halladay), but Carpenter has Halladay by 21 Ks. It's tough to say without actually working it out, but I'm guessing that the differences in ERA/WHIP is small when you consider that they're both tiny compared to a replacement player's ERA/WHIP (roughly 4.00, 1.35), while the difference in projected Ks for the season is much bigger relative to a replacement player's Ks (about 130).

I agree- I think Yahoo tends to overweight countables a bit- but in this case, I think Carpenter takes the top spot.


I don't want to take anything away from Carpenter's accomplishments so far but he is definitely not the best pitcher. He is certainly belongs in the best group but he is not the best.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Mon Jun 27, 2005 12:04 pm

I don't think he is -- or will be anywhere close to -- the best pitcher, but like Pogo said, it's not really a surprise to STL fans. He had a great year last year before he broke down and missed the playoffs which would have really put him on the map IMO. The only question with Carpenter is the same one that he's always had, staying healthy.
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Postby mamorris » Mon Jun 27, 2005 12:49 pm

Yoda wrote:
Cooner wrote:
Yoda wrote:Oops... not sure why I posted 10 times but...

Clearly Yahoo weighs countables at a much higher value than the averages. Halladay is ranked behind Carpenter despite the same number of W's, better ERA and a much better WHIP. Makes no sense.


Well, ERAs are 2.51 to 2.77 (for Halladay) and WHIPs are 0.94 to 1.12 (for Halladay), but Carpenter has Halladay by 21 Ks. It's tough to say without actually working it out, but I'm guessing that the differences in ERA/WHIP is small when you consider that they're both tiny compared to a replacement player's ERA/WHIP (roughly 4.00, 1.35), while the difference in projected Ks for the season is much bigger relative to a replacement player's Ks (about 130).

I agree- I think Yahoo tends to overweight countables a bit- but in this case, I think Carpenter takes the top spot.


I don't want to take anything away from Carpenter's accomplishments so far but he is definitely not the best pitcher. He is certainly belongs in the best group but he is not the best.


I ran the numbers through two different player raters (rototimes.com and baseballmonster.com), and in both cases Halladay came out ahead of Carpenter. Pedro and Willis also came out ahead, so I'm putting Carpenter at #4 at best so far. I think (but I can't prove) that Yahoo doesn't weight ERA and WHIP for the pitcher's IP. That would explain why he's ahead in Yahoo, since Halladay's not getting as much credit for the lower ERA and WHIP as he should. Ditto Willis and Pedro.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Jun 27, 2005 12:51 pm

mamorris wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Cooner wrote:
Yoda wrote:Oops... not sure why I posted 10 times but...

Clearly Yahoo weighs countables at a much higher value than the averages. Halladay is ranked behind Carpenter despite the same number of W's, better ERA and a much better WHIP. Makes no sense.


Well, ERAs are 2.51 to 2.77 (for Halladay) and WHIPs are 0.94 to 1.12 (for Halladay), but Carpenter has Halladay by 21 Ks. It's tough to say without actually working it out, but I'm guessing that the differences in ERA/WHIP is small when you consider that they're both tiny compared to a replacement player's ERA/WHIP (roughly 4.00, 1.35), while the difference in projected Ks for the season is much bigger relative to a replacement player's Ks (about 130).

I agree- I think Yahoo tends to overweight countables a bit- but in this case, I think Carpenter takes the top spot.


I don't want to take anything away from Carpenter's accomplishments so far but he is definitely not the best pitcher. He is certainly belongs in the best group but he is not the best.


I ran the numbers through two different player raters (rototimes.com and baseballmonster.com), and in both cases Halladay came out ahead of Carpenter. Pedro and Willis also came out ahead, so I'm putting Carpenter at #4 at best so far. I think (but I can't prove) that Yahoo doesn't weight ERA and WHIP for the pitcher's IP. That would explain why he's ahead in Yahoo, since Halladay's not getting as much credit for the lower ERA and WHIP as he should. Ditto Willis and Pedro.


and it takes the thread back to where I posted 10 times about Yahoo's ranking system being garbage. Period. ;-)
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Postby Cooner » Mon Jun 27, 2005 1:58 pm

ok, so i went and ran their projected stats through my own VORP calculations, in my setup for Yahoo standard leagues (1250 inning limits, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P), and got Halladay, Dontrelle, Pedro, Carpenter, in that order. My stuff slightly emphasizes WHIP (since I think it's a better predictor of consistent dominance than the others, and generally my WHIP predictions are more accurate than any of the others), but it wouldn't change that much if I gave even points for each category (which I guess I shoulda done but forgot until now). So you win- Carpenter isn't the best contributer so far. But it's darn close amongst all 4 of them- each one in that order is worth a dollar more than the next ;-D
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