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Carlos Lee: Why is he so quietly having a breakout season?

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Postby chargerss24 » Sat Jun 25, 2005 12:27 am

I paid $2.20 to keep Carlos Lee on my team this year and I was shopping him hard when he got off to a slow start. I'm glad now that no one bit on any of my trade offers! :-D
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Postby duckbillgates » Sat Jun 25, 2005 4:08 pm

davidmarver wrote:
Carlos Lee: Why is he so quietly having a breakout season?


Milwaukee


Clearly that's the case for why he doesn't get big press, but we in fantasyland usually pay more attention to the big numbers on small market teams.

The funny thing was is that everyone expected his RBI to take a hit since the Brewers were supposed to be lousy. Turns out that hitting cleanup has led to a ton more RBI, although a 100-run season would be a stretch.
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Postby Scooter1027 » Sat Jun 25, 2005 5:25 pm

Registered_Guest wrote:I think he's having an unnoticed season because the guy he was traded for (Pods) has been even more valuable to the best team in baseball.

One of the few trades that were greatly benefitual to both teams.


I guess it depends on your definitinon of "more valuable". Given the choice, I'd take Lee every time. Pods is a nice player, but a .707 OPS just doesn't thrill me at all, especially when I compare that to his replacement in Milwaukee (Brady Clark, .837). That being said, I do think the trade worked out fairly well for both sides, although I still prefer the Brewers end of the trade. I like Scottie's speed, and he's getting on base at a much better clip this year, but after that he's nothing. His defense is below average, his arm is a minus, and he only has 10 extra base hits all year (all doubles). However, it's hard to criticize the trade from the Sox end at this point, because they have been so good this year. They traded for his speed, and they got it, he's a fantastic base-stealer. I guess I would want more than stolen bases for a guy of Carlos Lee's caliber if I'm a GM, but maybe that's just me.
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Postby hunter19 » Sun Jun 26, 2005 4:19 am

Sox got Fockerd on that trade and Im loving it!!!!

Pods is a Fantasy stud for SB and thats it..The Brewers fans Im sure were sad to see him go as he was a fan Favorite, but Right now we don't miss the aging pods on bit..I bet the sox are missing Carlos tho...To bad so sad FIBS..
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Postby matmat » Sun Jun 26, 2005 4:40 am

Scooter1027 wrote:
I guess it depends on your definitinon of "more valuable". Given the choice, I'd take Lee every time. Pods is a nice player, but a .707 OPS just doesn't thrill me at all, especially when I compare that to his replacement in Milwaukee (Brady Clark, .837).



you know, this got me thinking (doesn't happen too often). OPS is a very deceptive stat for podsednik types, after all, a single followed by a SB is _almost_ as good as a double and a hit followed by a CS is _almost_ as bad as an out.

adjusting for these things, podsedniks modified OPS is .809

now let's go look at brady clark -- his modified OPS turns out to be .790

dunno if anyone actually looks at stuff like this, but there it is.
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Postby Scooter1027 » Sun Jun 26, 2005 11:53 am

matmat wrote:
Scooter1027 wrote:
I guess it depends on your definitinon of "more valuable". Given the choice, I'd take Lee every time. Pods is a nice player, but a .707 OPS just doesn't thrill me at all, especially when I compare that to his replacement in Milwaukee (Brady Clark, .837).



you know, this got me thinking (doesn't happen too often). OPS is a very deceptive stat for podsednik types, after all, a single followed by a SB is _almost_ as good as a double and a hit followed by a CS is _almost_ as bad as an out.

adjusting for these things, podsedniks modified OPS is .809

now let's go look at brady clark -- his modified OPS turns out to be .790

dunno if anyone actually looks at stuff like this, but there it is.


Alright, fair enough, good analysis, I hadn't really thought of it that way. Being caught stealing *is* as good as an out, not almost as good. I personally would like my OPS "guaranteed" so to speak, and not have it be reliant on a stolen base. There is inherent risk in stealing a base that an out will be given away. Brady is not a good basestealer, and he has attempted steals at a declining rate over the course of the season. He has a less than 50% success rate, whereas Scottie Po is undoubtedly phenomenal. But, bottom line, Brady has slugged significantly better, leading to increased run production while also getting on base at just about the same rate as Podsednik.

But, just for the sake of comparison, let's say we do accept your modified OPS, which is a reasonable thing to do. Those numbers (.809 and .790) are very close to each other, making them very similar producers offensively. Now factor in that Brady has higher range factor, zone rating, and has a better arm while playing a more difficult position (CF vs LF), and his defense gives him that edge that makes him more valuable than Scottie, in my opinion.

Most importantly, as a Brewers fan, it's like we added Carlos Lee's .901 OPS (a modified one would be higher as he is 8 for 9 stealing bases) for nothing, as Brady has produced so well in CF.
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Postby LooseCannon » Sun Jun 26, 2005 12:14 pm

toofunnyy wrote:A lot of people think Yahoo's original rank is the bible.

I'll agree no one is really throwing ANY offers at me for him. It's strange.

I drafted him in the 3rd round in a midseason league with a few laughs, but I agree he's a top 5 OF.



Yeah it's hilarious that this one guy in my league follows the O-rank like the bible....he gave up soo much to get Pierre who is a 17 o-rank
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Postby looptid » Sun Jun 26, 2005 12:14 pm

Registered_Guest wrote:I think he's having an unnoticed season because the guy he was traded for (Pods) has been even more valuable to the best team in baseball.

One of the few trades that were greatly benefitual to both teams.

The White Sox offense isn't scoring as many runs as it was last season, and their success has nothing to do with replacing Carlos Lee with Scott Podsednik. Also, the claim that the White Sox, having diversified their offense, score runs more consistantly isn't true either.

2005 VORP
Carlos Lee - 28.3
Scott Podsednik - 9.6

So far Lee has been worth almost 19 more runs to his team than Podsednik, and the season isn't half over yet. VORP factors in what Podsednik brings on the basepaths, and the two still shouldn't be mentoined in the same sentance. The Brewers absolutely fleeced the White Sox on this one, thankfully, as the Sox would be even better than they are now if they hadn't made the trade.

Getting Jon Garland's ERA under 4.50 for the first time in four seasons, along with the rest of their pitching staff improving is the reason for the Sox' lot in life.
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