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D Lee, Steroids

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Re: D Lee, Steroids

Postby bselig » Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:17 pm

WittyC wrote:
pibb55 wrote:You think if D Lee would have started this hot a year or two ago people would be all over him saying hes on steroids??? I mean, D Lee is a player whos never hit over .300 for a season and his career high in HRs is 32. Right now hes almost hitting .400 and on pace for 45-50+ HRs and its almost half way through the season.

Nobody uses the "he's gotta be on steroids" line anymore, when 2 years ago it was mentioned once a week about a new player it seemed. :-D


Fantasy baseball is a lot more fun if you actually watch a baseball game or two during the season. ;-7

One look at D-Lee and you know he's not on roids. He's the exact same size he has been for his whole career, and he has gone on streaks like this before... just not for this duration. His success is due to seeing the ball well (greatly improved BB/K ratio). If you look at HR/Hits ratio, he's right where he should be.

In other words... let's save the steroid talks for those who deserve it.


Exactly. Lee is not any bigger than he was before, so there's no reason to think he has roided himself up. Mark McGwire got huge. Barry Bonds got huge. Brett Boone got huge. Derek Lee has not gotten huge. No-one accuses Barry Larkin of roiding in '96 or whenever he won the mvp with a year way above his career numbers because he wasn't any bigger.
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Re: D Lee, Steroids

Postby cookman » Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:47 pm

bselig wrote:
WittyC wrote:
pibb55 wrote:You think if D Lee would have started this hot a year or two ago people would be all over him saying hes on steroids??? I mean, D Lee is a player whos never hit over .300 for a season and his career high in HRs is 32. Right now hes almost hitting .400 and on pace for 45-50+ HRs and its almost half way through the season.

Nobody uses the "he's gotta be on steroids" line anymore, when 2 years ago it was mentioned once a week about a new player it seemed. :-D


Fantasy baseball is a lot more fun if you actually watch a baseball game or two during the season. ;-7

One look at D-Lee and you know he's not on roids. He's the exact same size he has been for his whole career, and he has gone on streaks like this before... just not for this duration. His success is due to seeing the ball well (greatly improved BB/K ratio). If you look at HR/Hits ratio, he's right where he should be.

In other words... let's save the steroid talks for those who deserve it.


Exactly. Lee is not any bigger than he was before, so there's no reason to think he has roided himself up. Mark McGwire got huge. Barry Bonds got huge. Brett Boone got huge. Derek Lee has not gotten huge. No-one accuses Barry Larkin of roiding in '96 or whenever he won the mvp with a year way above his career numbers because he wasn't any bigger.


First of all, just because a guy does or doesn't get bigger over the course of a career does not mean he is or isn't on the juice. You hear people so often say "This guy had to be on steroids because look at his size when he came into the league and his size now". Players can get bigger without the help of steroids, and, conversely, can be using steroids without getting bigger. A lot of twenty-year old kids come into the league who tend to fill into their bodies as their careers progress, and there were many relief pitchers who used steroids for a purpose very different than getting more muscle mass. The size issue with steroid use is very over-played, and most often when cited it is because a lack of any other evidence.

Second, pibb is not accusing D. Lee of being juiced. He's actually doing the opposite. He's saying, which I agree with, that if this happened two years ago, plenty of idiots would be on this forum claiming they "knew" Derrek Lee is using steroids because he came out of (relative) obscurity to have a monster year, and that no one could progress that much in one year without artificial help. While I am glad (not only for the integrity of the game but for the players' collective health) that MLB finally did something about the huge steroid problem it had on its hands, pibb's point is well-taken (at least here) that perhaps people occasionally took their witch hunts a little to far, and evidence still goes a lot further than accusations.
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Postby RynMan » Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:53 pm

jblank wrote:I really just wish everyone could move on from the Steroids thing. I'm just almost sick of hearing about it at this point.


Amen.
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Postby The Jury » Thu Jun 23, 2005 8:16 pm

pibb55 wrote:Relax people, I wasnt saying hes on steroids at all, and Ive watched 60% of his games at least so I know hes always been a giant and still is. I was saying how 2 years ago some idiot would have posted that without knowing Lee or watching his career progress but now that steroids have been cut down on, people no longer think about them when they see a breakout season which is a good thing.


His numbers don't incidcate any substantial trend of progression as far as I can see. I think he just caught fire this year.
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Re: D Lee, Steroids

Postby wrveres » Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:15 pm

cookman wrote: First of all, just because a guy does or doesn't get bigger over the course of a career does not mean he is or isn't on the juice. You hear people so often say "This guy had to be on steroids because look at his size when he came into the league and his size now". Players can get bigger without the help of steroids, and, conversely, can be using steroids without getting bigger. A lot of twenty-year old kids come into the league who tend to fill into their bodies as their careers progress, and there were many relief pitchers who used steroids for a purpose very different than getting more muscle mass. The size issue with steroid use is very over-played, and most often when cited it is because a lack of any other evidence.

Second, pibb is not accusing D. Lee of being juiced. He's actually doing the opposite. He's saying, which I agree with, that if this happened two years ago, plenty of idiots would be on this forum claiming they "knew" Derrek Lee is using steroids because he came out of (relative) obscurity to have a monster year, and that no one could progress that much in one year without artificial help. While I am glad (not only for the integrity of the game but for the players' collective health) that MLB finally did something about the huge steroid problem it had on its hands, pibb's point is well-taken (at least here) that perhaps people occasionally took their witch hunts a little to far, and evidence still goes a lot further than accusations.


Excellent post ..
Excellent

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Postby HOOTIE » Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:18 pm

I hate roid talk. Now if a guy isn't hitting hrs, it's because he's off roids. As far as Lee, park effects and age (29), are key. Lee's in the years, where power spikes are not uncommon. But getting out of PP looks huge. Look at Lee's home/road hr split while in Florida. Last year in Wrigley, was the only year Lee ever had more hrs at home.

Pro Player 41 hrs
Away 88 hrs

So Lee had a horrible 41/88 home/road hr split. I doubt you can find a worse home/road hr split. Wrigley was the best hr park last year, especially for RHB. RHB had a 155 hr index there, meaning for every 1 hr in the NL, Wrigley yielded 1.55 hrs. Coors East. Lee hit 18 hrs at Wrigley last year. His best year at PP was 11 hrs.
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Postby reznorsboy » Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:27 pm

I don't think D. Lee is on Steroids. I also don't think his current numbers are the result of a streak. I think he is just become a great player and he will remain at this level. I think he is in the same league as Pujols wether people want to accept it or not.

But it is funy that no one has really been saying much about Lee using roids. Maybe people are actually getting a little but more educated ;-7 In reality I think people just believe that with the new steroid policy in the MLB that players will not use them anymore.
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Postby baseballnewb » Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:43 pm

Wow a cubs fan thinks he's gonna keep it up, shocker.

Just like the brewer fan thought overbay would last year and the Blue Jays fan thought olerud would when he was hitting 400 at the all star break and the insert team X fan thought player Y would when they were hot the first half. News flash, 90% of the time they don't keep it up and more times than not they have a below average second half. The other 10% you get guys that have a huge year and then a dud year the next year(see beltre, adrian). Players simply do not elevate their game that far consistantly within 1 years time unless there is a big change in home park or playtime, you don't go from a 280 hitter to a 350 hitter over a single season.
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Postby cookman » Fri Jun 24, 2005 12:46 am

HOOTIE wrote:So Lee had a horrible 41/88 home/road hr split. I doubt you can find a worse home/road hr split.


Look at Giles home/away splits at Petco. Just as bad.


baseballnewb wrote:Players simply do not elevate their game that far consistantly within 1 years time unless there is a big change in home park or playtime, you don't go from a 280 hitter to a 350 hitter over a single season.


I don't really get this quote. It's not uncommon to see young players entering their prime have a breakout season, and continue to produce for several seasons. In fact, I remember a fellow Cub having a bust-out season similar to this a couple years ago and re-energizing baseball for an entire summer. He almost doubled his home run output from the previous season on his was to breaking Roger Maris's 30+ year single-season home run record. He ended up parlaying that "fluke" season into a Hall of Fame career.
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Postby WittyC » Fri Jun 24, 2005 1:00 am

baseballnewb wrote:Wow a cubs fan thinks he's gonna keep it up, shocker.

Just like the brewer fan thought overbay would last year and the Blue Jays fan thought olerud would when he was hitting 400 at the all star break and the insert team X fan thought player Y would when they were hot the first half. News flash, 90% of the time they don't keep it up and more times than not they have a below average second half. The other 10% you get guys that have a huge year and then a dud year the next year(see beltre, adrian). Players simply do not elevate their game that far consistantly within 1 years time unless there is a big change in home park or playtime, you don't go from a 280 hitter to a 350 hitter over a single season.


Comparing D-Lee to Beltre is outlandish.

Beltre had never gone over 23 homers and had been consistently hitting well below .270 before having a breakout season in a contract year. D-Lee had been very consistent offensively around .280 with 25ish homers while showing flashes of brilliance. Plus, D-Lee's not due another payday until the end of '06, so there's really no room for comparison here what-so-ever.

Ichiro added 60 points to his BA from '03 to '04 and I'll bet you didn't blink an eye. What about Larry Walker? Pedestrian BA his first 4 seasons, then a .322 "breakout" season in 1995. After an injury-plagued '96 he then put together his "prime years," hitting .350 or better over the next three seasons including that run at the triple crown.

I'm not saying Lee's gonna hit .400, or even .380... but I wouldn't be surprised to see a .360 or .370 year. He's shown absolutely no sign of slowing down. Watch him play for three games and you'll jump on the bandwagon...
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