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Opinions on Beltran?

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Postby Dawgpound 1613 » Fri Jun 24, 2005 10:58 am

TheYanks04 wrote:At this point I wouldbe thrilled with some quality HR/RBI/Run numbers. He is down in every category.


Agree.

Obviously what made him the Top 5 player was the speed, but even then I was expecting 110-25-100. His current pace of 65-18-80 doesn't match up.

I will ask, though, as I didn't watch him in KC - is he a consistent player or one prone to the types of streaks he had last year with the Astros? I.e. - any chance he'll go unconcious for two months (maybe not in SB, but in the other categories) and at least finish where many were predicting in regards to the other categories?
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Postby bigh0rt » Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:42 am

Dawgpound 1613 wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:At this point I wouldbe thrilled with some quality HR/RBI/Run numbers. He is down in every category.


Agree.

Obviously what made him the Top 5 player was the speed, but even then I was expecting 110-25-100. His current pace of 65-18-80 doesn't match up.

I will ask, though, as I didn't watch him in KC - is he a consistent player or one prone to the types of streaks he had last year with the Astros? I.e. - any chance he'll go unconcious for two months (maybe not in SB, but in the other categories) and at least finish where many were predicting in regards to the other categories?


More than capable. Just a few examples:

2003:
40 RBI heading into July, after batting .194, .301, and .303 in April/May/June respectively. July saw Carlos bat .323 with 4 HR and 21 RBI, 20 Runs (and 11 SB), followed immediately by an August in which he bat .341 with 6 HR, another 21 RBI, and 18 Runs. He hit 5 Triples during that two month stretch, 6 doubles, and had 63 hits. His OPS for that August was 1.023; he also bat .320 after the All-Star break

2001:
.275, .252, .265 A/M/J heading into the hot months, with a total of 38 RBI. In July Beltran bats .297, 2 HR, 15 RBI (most in the season up to that point), followed by a .373 August where he smacked 3 HR, 18 RBI (the most that season, tied with September), 26 Runs, 12 SB, and an OPS of 1.052. Just for good measure, he bat .330 with a 1.022 OPS in September, with another 18 RBI, 5 Homers, and 8 Doubles. He was batting .263 going into the break, and went on to bat .358 after.

So, he's certainly capable of going on a tear, and it appears July/August are when he tends to go on them.
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Postby Registered_Guest » Fri Jun 24, 2005 3:15 pm

My opinion is he is the bust of the year.

Even if he were to hit 25-30 HR for the season, he's still not going to rack up the SB's.

Regardless of where you drafted him, it was too early. Just another OF.
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Postby Rirruto » Fri Jun 24, 2005 3:17 pm

Registered_Guest wrote:My opinion is he is the bust of the year.

Even if he were to hit 25-30 HR for the season, he's still not going to rack up the SB's.

Regardless of where you drafted him, it was too early. Just another OF.

How do you know he isn't going to steal 20-25 bags during the 2nd half? You just never know, you can't count him out yet. During his career, he has more SBs during the 2nd half in LESS games played compared to the 1st half. And I'm not speaking as a hopeful/optimistic Met fan, I feel I'm speaking pretty objectively.

FYI, he has averaged 20+ SBs after the ASB for the past 4 years.
2004: 27
2003: 16
2002: 17
2001: 21
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Postby Registered_Guest » Fri Jun 24, 2005 3:36 pm

Yes and Mike Lowell is usually a 1st half player. (gasp!)

My overall point is there never should of been debate of taking Beltran before A-rod. There are 30 MLB 3B and 90+ OF's (Many OF's steal bags; few 3B)

1 SB in 3 months. Beltran isn't looking to steal (whether he's too hurt to do so, who knows....perhaps he won't be healthy enough all year -- if that's the reason). IMO they best you can hope for is 20-20 (on pace for 18 and 2). 20-20 isn't a Top 5 pick though.

Perhaps he will steal more bags (I haven't once seen the explosive player in NY that was playing here in KC), but he could also head the way or Soriano and Vlad (also once upon a time 30/30 guys) and concentrate more on driving runs in.

The fact he's dealt with injury to his lower half leads me to really really believe he won't even attempt SB (that's not to say he COULDN'T steal bags, but rather he WON'T in order to not risk injury. The Mets are paying him a shitload of $$ and aren't going anywhere this year, so why risk long term injury.
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I just don't see it. Johnny Damon was allowed to run wild on those bad KC teams too. There wasn't the investment of $$ in KC that the Mets now have on Beltran.

I just feel the role of creating runs on the Mets has went to Jose Reyes and Beltran will be the run producer like what Vlad is to the Angels and Soriano is to the Rangers.
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Postby great gretzky » Fri Jun 24, 2005 4:00 pm

to be fair, IF beltran had been stealing the debate is more than warranted. the luxury of having a "5 cat" -- really 4 and a push on the fifth, is huge. although arod gets his steals though too. but steals are flaky. but everyone after the fact says that, and I think its flawed. the sb's come at a premium and it isn't like people were dumb for thinking so. how did we know his hamstrings and manager would conspire against him?
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Postby joeg24 » Tue Jun 28, 2005 12:18 pm

A fun one I just noticed

Emil Brown vs Carlos Beltran

BA - 295 to 262
HR - 8 to 9
RBI - 37 Each
Runs - 39 to 31 8-o
SB - 2 to 1

A guy most of us had no idea of on possibly one of the worst teams in the MLB is basically a much better option then a top 10 at worst pick overall.

FYI - Beltran is 70th right now in my points league. Yeah, I mean 70th in the OF. How sad is that? There's probably only 60 outfielders even on rosters in most 12 teamers!!!!

Sadly (and I can't believe I am saying this) for us Beltran owners it almost would of been better if he would of broke his leg back in April so we would of been forced to pick up someone else. I'm sure he picks it up, but man is it frustrating seeing most outfielders outpruducing a top player. I mean Emil Brown??? Jeez! Out scored by 8 by a Royal that wasn't full time right away????
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Postby LooseCannon » Tue Jun 28, 2005 12:42 pm

flbtank wrote:These are exactlyy the points I was thinking about when I just pulled the trigger & got beltran for Garrett Anderson & Chris Capuano. I needed to free up a roster spot for Harden coming back and I figured Garrett at his best is a sub par beltran. Win Win for me.



I think anyone would get Beltran for those two.whether or not they think he can turn it around.
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