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Opinions on Beltran?

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Opinions on Beltran?

Postby kentx12 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:31 pm

What to do with him? Will he heat up for the 2nd half? Is he someone that you should think about trying to buy low or is this just an off year all togeatherfor him?
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Postby zhutou » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:44 pm

i would definitely try to buy him low. he stated that his quads almost feel 100%. hopefully by the 2nd half he will be able to steal some bags.
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Postby bigh0rt » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:57 pm

As a note, it's pretty obvious I'm a Mets fan, but I'm going to be objective here, and back up what I say. With that said, take the following as you will.

I feel that over Carlos Beltran's career, he is too good of a talent to continue his current pace with the bat. Just to throw a few numbers out there:

- He's only batting 13 points lower currently than his career average (.283). He did only bat .258 after going to Houston last year, but before that, in KC he regularly found himself in mid-.270s all the way up two seasons finishing above .300.

- He was batting as high as .300 as recently as June 9th. He's slumped for the following 8 days, but has looked good at the plate in Philly, a park that may very well spark an upswing for Carlos. He had two very good hits last night, knocking in two runs.

- Willie Randolph was on Mike & the Mad Dog today talking about Carlos' leg and how he's not fully confident in it yet, but said that once Beltran feels comfortable running, that we will see him run, and I quote, "See truly how talented this kid really is." It sounded to me like once he was ready to run, he'd run. This could easily mean a 20 SB second half for Carlos, if his quadricep is up to 100% by the break.

- For his career, Carlos heats up as the Summer does. We hear a lot of talk about second half players and this and that, but look at Beltran's monthly breakdowns over his career:

April - .266
May - .278
June - .280
July - .284
August - .298
September - .290
October - .364

- After a .284 and .304 average in April/May of this year, this .214 June we've seen so far is one of the worst slumps of Beltran's career. That said, I wouldn't read much more into it than that. It's not Shea Stadium, as some like to claim. Beltran hasn't really driven the ball all month, save the past two days and his one HR shot in Oakland that got out of the park quick.

- vs NL East teams, Beltran posts a pretty good mark. He's going to see considerable time vs these guys for the rest of the year.

vs FLA - .294, 3 HR, 9 RBI in 8 G
vs WSH - .319, 3 HR, 10 RBI in 18 G
vs ATL - .269, 3 HR, 8 RBI in 13 G
vs PHI - .308, 4 HR, 17 RBI in 16 G

Now, I understand the Mets will play a lot more teams from here on out, but with several series with these teams still yet to be played, I like him batting near or above .300 against 3/4 of them.

- We're well within our rights to be pretty disapointed with Carlos' .270, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 29 R, 1 SB mark through 6/22, but this guy put up 23 and 21 RBI months in July/August last season, respectively, so a turnaround is far from out of the question. He also stole sixteen bases in August alone. For that reason, I hang onto him this season, and future seasons.

If you look at his career numbers, they're pretty good. Anybody who claims he made his payday on one big year or one great playoffs simply hasn't looked at the numbers. Five 100+ RBI seasons in Kansas City don't come cheap, neither do four consecutive seasons of 30+ SB (40+ the past two).

So, that said, I'd hang onto him. His value is extremely low right now, so chances are if you wanted to move him, you could end up selling him off considerably low (he was a Top 5 pick in every draft I witnessed), and if he returns to Top 5 form in the second half? Egg on the face. At the very worst, sit him until you see him turn a corner, or take off and swipe a base. Whatever you choose your benchmark to be. But I can't see how trading him right now is the smart move for any owner to make.

So, if you can get him at a reasonable rate, I highly suggest doing so. ;-D
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Postby Rirruto » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:01 pm

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Beltran's 2nd half splits are great. He has more SBs and triples in the 2nd half even though he has played in alot less games. Wille Randolph also said today on WFAN that he will be talking to Carlos about running more since he's so good at it when healthy, he just thinks Carlos is being a bit cautious with his quad which is just beginning to be close to 100%.
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Postby Dawgpound 1613 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:14 pm

bigh0rt wrote:As a note, it's pretty obvious I'm a Mets fan, but I'm going to be objective here, and back up what I say. With that said, take the following as you will.

I feel that over Carlos Beltran's career, he is too good of a talent to continue his current pace with the bat. Just to throw a few numbers out there:

- He's only batting 13 points lower currently than his career average (.283). He did only bat .258 after going to Houston last year, but before that, in KC he regularly found himself in mid-.270s all the way up two seasons finishing above .300.

- He was batting as high as .300 as recently as June 9th. He's slumped for the following 8 days, but has looked good at the plate in Philly, a park that may very well spark an upswing for Carlos. He had two very good hits last night, knocking in two runs.

- Willie Randolph was on Mike & the Mad Dog today talking about Carlos' leg and how he's not fully confident in it yet, but said that once Beltran feels comfortable running, that we will see him run, and I quote, "See truly how talented this kid really is." It sounded to me like once he was ready to run, he'd run. This could easily mean a 20 SB second half for Carlos, if his quadricep is up to 100% by the break.

- For his career, Carlos heats up as the Summer does. We hear a lot of talk about second half players and this and that, but look at Beltran's monthly breakdowns over his career:

April - .266
May - .278
June - .280
July - .284
August - .298
September - .290
October - .364

- After a .284 and .304 average in April/May of this year, this .214 June we've seen so far is one of the worst slumps of Beltran's career. That said, I wouldn't read much more into it than that. It's not Shea Stadium, as some like to claim. Beltran hasn't really driven the ball all month, save the past two days and his one HR shot in Oakland that got out of the park quick.

- vs NL East teams, Beltran posts a pretty good mark. He's going to see considerable time vs these guys for the rest of the year.

vs FLA - .294, 3 HR, 9 RBI in 8 G
vs WSH - .319, 3 HR, 10 RBI in 18 G
vs ATL - .269, 3 HR, 8 RBI in 13 G
vs PHI - .308, 4 HR, 17 RBI in 16 G

Now, I understand the Mets will play a lot more teams from here on out, but with several series with these teams still yet to be played, I like him batting near or above .300 against 3/4 of them.

- We're well within our rights to be pretty disapointed with Carlos' .270, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 29 R, 1 SB mark through 6/22, but this guy put up 23 and 21 RBI months in July/August last season, respectively, so a turnaround is far from out of the question. He also stole sixteen bases in August alone. For that reason, I hang onto him this season, and future seasons.

If you look at his career numbers, they're pretty good. Anybody who claims he made his payday on one big year or one great playoffs simply hasn't looked at the numbers. Five 100+ RBI seasons in Kansas City don't come cheap, neither do four consecutive seasons of 30+ SB (40+ the past two).

So, that said, I'd hang onto him. His value is extremely low right now, so chances are if you wanted to move him, you could end up selling him off considerably low (he was a Top 5 pick in every draft I witnessed), and if he returns to Top 5 form in the second half? Egg on the face. At the very worst, sit him until you see him turn a corner, or take off and swipe a base. Whatever you choose your benchmark to be. But I can't see how trading him right now is the smart move for any owner to make.

So, if you can get him at a reasonable rate, I highly suggest doing so. ;-D


Excellent points. I am personally not targeting him, though, and even with these points I don't plan on targeting him. But that is simply based on my gut that I don't think the Mets are running that much this year as a whole. So unless Willie changes his style, I'll take the talk about him running as simply noise right now.

But still excellent points and, outside of the SB potential, I agree with them. However, as I'm not convinced on the SB issue, and since a lot of his perceived value is tied up in his SB potential, I'm not planning on making a run at him.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:15 pm

Well, I don't share bighort's optimism, but I do agree with him that your best bet is to hold onto him (if you have him) or try to get him on the cheap. I can't imagine that his value can get any lower, and there is always the chance that he can turn things around in the second half. He's a good buy-low candidate.

He owns the skills and athletic ability that he has displayed the past years, and there's no reason he couldn't steal 15 or 20 in the second half if he has the desire, the health, and Willie gives him the green light. I'm skeptical that he'll have all three, but the upside is there.

If you can get him cheap enough, he could be a good value. He's a lifetime 280 or so hitter, so I expect at a minimum he'll end up somewhere around there. He's also shown good power. I doubt he'll finish the year with less than 20 HR and could hit 25 or even 30 if he gets on a real hot streak.

At the end of the day, he's a good pick-up if you can shake the pre-season 40-40 hype and get him for a price comensurate with his performance so far, and hope for the big second half.
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Postby bigh0rt » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:58 pm

nuggets wrote:I like the length of the posts here :-D

I'd use all that info you all just gave us to [b] sell [/b ]Beltran, if I owned him. He's in a pitchers park, going through an injury time and has huge potential value that you can use to aquire a solid player. I'd think big and package players to get Pujols, Vlade, you know the guys I'm talking about.


As great as Beltran's track record and upside for the second half and beyond are, the other player in that package would have to be awfully good to get a Vlad or Pujols out of me.

I'm saying, if you can get Beltran for somebody you drafted in, say, the first 5 Rounds or so, and you feel may tail off this season (or beyond, if this is a keeper), I'd make the move.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:45 pm

Beltran was way overrated. It's not like he's doing terribly now but he was unconscious in 04. The fact that his speed has all but disappeared is a tell tale sign that he is no longer the top player everyone expected him to be.

I think he will heat up in the second half however and this is a great time to try to buy him low.
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Postby Phatferd » Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:50 pm

What I don't get is everyone is quick to rip on a guy like Beltre for signing his big deal and going into a slump.

Beltran signed his huge ass contract and now he is underperforming. Why aren't people calling for his head? Isn't it odd that he almost doubled his HR totals last year in a contract year? This is the classic case of a contract year inflating a guy's value for next year.
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