As a note, it's pretty obvious I'm a Mets fan, but I'm going to be objective here, and back up what I say. With that said, take the following as you will.
I feel that over Carlos Beltran's career, he is too good of a talent to continue his current pace with the bat. Just to throw a few numbers out there:
- He's only batting 13 points lower currently than his career average (.283). He did only bat .258 after going to Houston last year, but before that, in KC he regularly found himself in mid-.270s all the way up two seasons finishing above .300.
- He was batting as high as .300 as recently as June 9th. He's slumped for the following 8 days, but has looked good at the plate in Philly, a park that may very well spark an upswing for Carlos. He had two very good hits last night, knocking in two runs.
- Willie Randolph was on Mike & the Mad Dog today talking about Carlos' leg and how he's not fully confident in it yet, but said that once Beltran feels comfortable running, that we will see him run, and I quote, "See truly how talented this kid really is." It sounded to me like once he was ready to run, he'd run. This could easily mean a 20 SB second half for Carlos, if his quadricep is up to 100% by the break.
- For his career, Carlos heats up as the Summer does. We hear a lot of talk about second half players and this and that, but look at Beltran's monthly breakdowns over his career:
April - .266
May - .278
June - .280
July - .284
August - .298
September - .290
October - .364
- After a .284 and .304 average in April/May of this year, this .214 June we've seen so far is one of the worst slumps of Beltran's career. That said, I wouldn't read much more into it than that. It's not Shea Stadium, as some like to claim. Beltran hasn't really driven the ball all month, save the past two days and his one HR shot in Oakland that got out of the park quick.
- vs NL East teams, Beltran posts a pretty good mark. He's going to see considerable time vs these guys for the rest of the year.
vs FLA - .294, 3 HR, 9 RBI in 8 G
vs WSH - .319, 3 HR, 10 RBI in 18 G
vs ATL - .269, 3 HR, 8 RBI in 13 G
vs PHI - .308, 4 HR, 17 RBI in 16 G
Now, I understand the Mets will play a lot more teams from here on out, but with several series with these teams still yet to be played, I like him batting near or above .300 against 3/4 of them.
- We're well within our rights to be pretty disapointed with Carlos' .270, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 29 R, 1 SB
mark through 6/22, but this guy put up 23 and 21 RBI months in July/August last season, respectively, so a turnaround is far from out of the question. He also stole sixteen
bases in August alone. For that reason, I hang onto him this season, and future seasons.
If you look at his career numbers, they're pretty good. Anybody who claims he made his payday on one big year or one great playoffs simply hasn't looked at the numbers. Five 100+ RBI seasons in Kansas City don't come cheap, neither do four consecutive seasons of 30+ SB (40+ the past two).
So, that said, I'd hang onto him. His value is extremely low right now, so chances are if you wanted to move him, you could end up selling him off considerably low (he was a Top 5 pick in every draft I witnessed), and if he returns to Top 5 form in the second half? Egg on the face. At the very worst, sit him until you see him turn a corner, or take off and swipe a base. Whatever you choose your benchmark to be. But I can't see how trading him right now is the smart move for any owner to make.
So, if you can get him at a reasonable rate, I highly suggest doing so.