I don't think the sample size is large enough and the team quality equal enough to make a H/A factor prediction on Mr. Pavano. Why I say that is based on a lot of subjective and "objective" stuff that many wouldn't agree with
- Code: Select all
Way to look deeper. But I think if you look at how he's performed against some of those teams, then you'll see that the home/road is a bigger deal so far than the opponent.
Pitched Well Against: Bos, LAA, & Oak
Pitched Poor Against: Sea, TB, CHC, Tor, & Bos
Pitched Well Against: StL, Mil, NYM, Sea, & Tor
Pitched Poor Against: KC & Bal
Also, his gems have all been on the road. His good games at home have been decent, not great. He's had 3 great games on the road and one really strong outing against St. Louis. His bad games at home have been awful. Granted, the road teams he's faced are of questionable talent, but that game against StL can be pointed to as a really strong outing against a good hitting team. And also, he has performed terrible against the weak hitting teams he has faced at home.
I agree with you that it would be nice if the sample size was larger. And that the quality of team at home has been higher. But it is over 16 starts, which is nearly half the season, and the split is so noticeably large that it must
be taken into account. Also, he has faced both Toronto and Seattle at home and on the road. Look at how well he did against these teams in their parks compared to at home.
Perhaps he will buck the trend soon, but there is enough evidence, IMO, to suggest he is a rather strong play on the road regardless of the matchup and a terrible play at home regardless of the matchup. Something seems to be in his head at Yankee stadium right now...
- Code: Select all
W-L IP H R ER SO BB
v Sea ND 4.0 10 9 5 1 6
v Tor ND 5.0 9 6 6 1 2
On the road
at Sea W 9.0 5 0 0 0 7
at Tor W 8.0 7 2 1 0 3