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Pavano's home/road splits

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Postby Secret Avatar » Wed Jun 22, 2005 11:46 am

I've also got RJ and Pavano on my team and it's been feast or famine with both of them. Just when I think they've pulled it together, they'll throw a terd like RJ's last night. I mean, is it even POSSIBLE to give up 7 runs in 3 innings to the Rays?

I'm starting Pavano tonight. What difference does it make at this point? Either he and RJ turn it on, or my season is falling into the crapper anyway. Might as well ride the A-Bomb down if its gonna go off anyway.
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Postby strong » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:14 pm

.
Last edited by strong on Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby strong » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:17 pm

Updated splits for today's game:

Code: Select all

Split ERA W L G GS  IP   H  R ER HR BB SO  BAA
Home 6.89 1 3 9  9 47.0 73 42 36 10 11 33 .341
Away 2.49 3 3 7  7 47.0 47 20 13  6  6 23 .260



You just can't pitch this guy at Yankee stadium.

His next game is at Baltimore.... I would say put him in the lineup.
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Postby nuggets » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:34 pm

I don't think the sample size is large enough and the team quality equal enough to make a H/A factor prediction on Mr. Pavano. Why I say that is based on a lot of subjective and "objective" stuff that many wouldn't agree with :-)


Code: Select all
Home      Away

BAL         BAL
CHC         STL
BOS 2x
LAA

            MIL
SEA         SEA
TOR         TOR
OAK     
TB          KAN
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Postby strong » Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:15 pm

nuggets wrote:I don't think the sample size is large enough and the team quality equal enough to make a H/A factor prediction on Mr. Pavano. Why I say that is based on a lot of subjective and "objective" stuff that many wouldn't agree with :-)


Code: Select all
Home      Away

BAL         BAL
CHC         STL
BOS 2x
LAA

            MIL
SEA         SEA
TOR         TOR
OAK     
TB          KAN


Way to look deeper. But I think if you look at how he's performed against some of those teams, then you'll see that the home/road is a bigger deal so far than the opponent.

Home
Pitched Well Against: Bos, LAA, & Oak
Pitched Poor Against: Sea, TB, CHC, Tor, & Bos

Road
Pitched Well Against: StL, Mil, NYM, Sea, & Tor
Pitched Poor Against: KC & Bal

Also, his gems have all been on the road. His good games at home have been decent, not great. He's had 3 great games on the road and one really strong outing against St. Louis. His bad games at home have been awful. Granted, the road teams he's faced are of questionable talent, but that game against StL can be pointed to as a really strong outing against a good hitting team. And also, he has performed terrible against the weak hitting teams he has faced at home.

I agree with you that it would be nice if the sample size was larger. And that the quality of team at home has been higher. But it is over 16 starts, which is nearly half the season, and the split is so noticeably large that it must be taken into account. Also, he has faced both Toronto and Seattle at home and on the road. Look at how well he did against these teams in their parks compared to at home. Perhaps he will buck the trend soon, but there is enough evidence, IMO, to suggest he is a rather strong play on the road regardless of the matchup and a terrible play at home regardless of the matchup. Something seems to be in his head at Yankee stadium right now...
Code: Select all
At home
      W-L IP  H  R ER SO BB
v Sea ND  4.0 10 9  5 1  6 
v Tor ND  5.0  9 6  6 1  2
   

On the road
at Sea W  9.0 5 0 0 0 7
at Tor W  8.0 7 2 1 0 3
   
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Postby Jagfan21 » Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:41 am

strong wrote:
nuggets wrote:I don't think the sample size is large enough and the team quality equal enough to make a H/A factor prediction on Mr. Pavano. Why I say that is based on a lot of subjective and "objective" stuff that many wouldn't agree with :-)


Code: Select all
Home      Away

BAL         BAL
CHC         STL
BOS 2x
LAA

            MIL
SEA         SEA
TOR         TOR
OAK     
TB          KAN


Way to look deeper. But I think if you look at how he's performed against some of those teams, then you'll see that the home/road is a bigger deal so far than the opponent.

Home
Pitched Well Against: Bos, LAA, & Oak
Pitched Poor Against: Sea, TB, CHC, Tor, & Bos

Road
Pitched Well Against: StL, Mil, NYM, Sea, & Tor
Pitched Poor Against: KC & Bal

Also, his gems have all been on the road. His good games at home have been decent, not great. He's had 3 great games on the road and one really strong outing against St. Louis. His bad games at home have been awful. Granted, the road teams he's faced are of questionable talent, but that game against StL can be pointed to as a really strong outing against a good hitting team. And also, he has performed terrible against the weak hitting teams he has faced at home.

I agree with you that it would be nice if the sample size was larger. And that the quality of team at home has been higher. But it is over 16 starts, which is nearly half the season, and the split is so noticeably large that it must be taken into account. Also, he has faced both Toronto and Seattle at home and on the road. Look at how well he did against these teams in their parks compared to at home. Perhaps he will buck the trend soon, but there is enough evidence, IMO, to suggest he is a rather strong play on the road regardless of the matchup and a terrible play at home regardless of the matchup. Something seems to be in his head at Yankee stadium right now...
Code: Select all
At home
      W-L IP  H  R ER SO BB
v Sea ND  4.0 10 9  5 1  6 
v Tor ND  5.0  9 6  6 1  2
   

On the road
at Sea W  9.0 5 0 0 0 7
at Tor W  8.0 7 2 1 0 3
   
;-D
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Postby nuggets » Thu Jun 23, 2005 5:17 pm

Yes... now it will be very interesting to watch Mr. Pavano from here on out. (o) (o) (o)
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Postby strong » Mon Jun 27, 2005 7:47 pm

Who actually started him today against Baltimore because of his splits?
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Postby TheYanks04 » Mon Jun 27, 2005 10:35 pm

I said it before, I will say it again, it is the gopher balls and his control killing him not the ballpark. He was not good tonight. He was lucky it was not a lot worse.
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Postby reznorsboy » Mon Jun 27, 2005 11:12 pm

I can't figure this guy out. Sinkerball pitcher with a good defense behind him!!
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