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Postby beltrans_boy » Tue Jun 21, 2005 4:09 pm

nuggets wrote:
demondemon wrote:Does no one remember what happened to him last year?

He got hot in May/June...red hot in July...came back down to earth early August and died off pretty much in late August/ September.

Just something to keep in the back of your head come fantasy playoff time.


If production does indeed work like a sine wave, then I'd expect a peak near the end of this year. I am convinced Victor is one of those catchers that other catcher disadvantaged owners will be looking at in jealousy by August.


Image


:-?

Brilliant!

:-o
[size=10]"Men are apt to mistake the strength of their feeling for the strength of their argument." [/size]
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Postby bigh0rt » Tue Jun 21, 2005 4:10 pm

demondemon wrote:Does no one remember what happened to him last year?

He got hot in May/June...red hot in July...came back down to earth early August and died off pretty much in late August/ September.

Just something to keep in the back of your head come fantasy playoff time.


That's a trend across the board for Catchers, pretty much, though. As the summer gets hotter and hotter, you see their production at the plate decline, having to strap on the catcher gear every day and crouch for 9 innings. They also tend to take more days off in that span. That said, I'd take Martinez over most other alternatives behind the dish.
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Postby nuggets » Tue Jun 21, 2005 4:12 pm

beltrans_boy wrote:
:-?

Brilliant!

:-o


Now come on BB, I really can't tell what you mean by that
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Postby beltrans_boy » Tue Jun 21, 2005 4:17 pm

nuggets wrote:
beltrans_boy wrote:
:-?

Brilliant!

:-o


Now come on BB, I really can't tell what you mean by that


I guess I'm just really, really confused as to why you posted a picture of a sine wave in a fantasy baseball thread.

:-?
[size=10]"Men are apt to mistake the strength of their feeling for the strength of their argument." [/size]
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Postby nuggets » Tue Jun 21, 2005 4:21 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
demondemon wrote:Does no one remember what happened to him last year?

He got hot in May/June...red hot in July...came back down to earth early August and died off pretty much in late August/ September.

Just something to keep in the back of your head come fantasy playoff time.


That's a trend across the board for Catchers, pretty much, though. As the summer gets hotter and hotter, you see their production at the plate decline, having to strap on the catcher gear every day and crouch for 9 innings. They also tend to take more days off in that span. That said, I'd take Martinez over most other alternatives behind the dish.


I think that you can make a case for the "weather" or time of year counteracting some of those affects as many hitters seem to peak during this time. A good case study would be Posada vs. Pudge. Look at the splits and you see Pugde's stats support your theory while Posada’s question it. I think it's relative to the climate you call home. Tex vs. NY. It gets burly hot and humid in NY sometimes but not as consistently hot as Texas.
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Postby RugbyD » Tue Jun 21, 2005 4:23 pm

beltrans_boy wrote:
nuggets wrote:
beltrans_boy wrote:
:-?

Brilliant!

:-o


Now come on BB, I really can't tell what you mean by that


I guess I'm just really, really confused as to why you posted a picture of a sine wave in a fantasy baseball thread.

:-?


i once linked to a picture of a lognormal distribution curve. and for good reason!
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Postby nuggets » Tue Jun 21, 2005 4:24 pm

beltrans_boy wrote:
nuggets wrote:
beltrans_boy wrote:
:-?

Brilliant!

:-o


Now come on BB, I really can't tell what you mean by that


I guess I'm just really, really confused as to why you posted a picture of a sine wave in a fantasy baseball thread.

:-?


Because when I look at a players production over time that's what I see. Take Manny Ramirez for instance. Just look at the spits from last year and now and plot his production :-D

Doesn’t it make sense with all the calculus that goes in to PECOTA analysis and certain sabermetrics in general?
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Postby AT » Tue Jun 21, 2005 4:27 pm

Image

Clearly by analyzing the above head and shoulders trend we can see that the VMart began heating up around late May and you should've been buying after the first resistance point where he showed some positive upside, then held through the stop loss denoted by the dip to the red line. Since he started to slump but failed to dip below the stop loss red line you should be holding and he will soon go to a higher peak through July and August where you should be selling high before going on to an inevitable decline into September when he is going to crash like the Market in 2000.

I hope this trendline clears up any discrepency into the expected performance for VMart for the remainder of the season.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Tue Jun 21, 2005 4:27 pm

nuggets wrote:
beltrans_boy wrote:
nuggets wrote:
beltrans_boy wrote:
:-?

Brilliant!

:-o


Now come on BB, I really can't tell what you mean by that


I guess I'm just really, really confused as to why you posted a picture of a sine wave in a fantasy baseball thread.

:-?


Because when I look at a players production over time that's what I see. Take Manny Ramirez for instance. Just look at the spits from last year and now and plot his production :-D

Doesn’t it make sense with all the calculus that goes in to PECOTA analysis and certain sabermetrics in general?


I'm so confused right now, it's not even funny.

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Postby nuggets » Tue Jun 21, 2005 4:28 pm

RugbyD wrote:
beltrans_boy wrote:
nuggets wrote:
beltrans_boy wrote:
:-?

Brilliant!

:-o


Now come on BB, I really can't tell what you mean by that


I guess I'm just really, really confused as to why you posted a picture of a sine wave in a fantasy baseball thread.

:-?





i once linked to a picture of a lognormal distribution curve. and for good reason!


http://gummy-stuff.org/johnson.htm



Oooooohhh, Aaaaahhhh... How many home runs is Tejada most likely to hit this year? Hhhmmmmmmmmm
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