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Postby beltrans_boy » Fri Jun 24, 2005 3:49 pm

reiser wrote:so does it make sense to focus on on whether he has gotten lucky on a few hits (my assertion: who cares?)


So you admit that luck does play a role in batting average then...right?

:-?
[size=10]"Men are apt to mistake the strength of their feeling for the strength of their argument." [/size]
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Postby beltrans_boy » Fri Jun 24, 2005 4:03 pm

My contention is the following:

1) Derrek Lee's Batting Average on Balls in Play is abnormally high for a player of his skill set, and that we can most likely expect that number to regress from .425
2) As a result of this expected regression, Derrek Lee's batting average will drop.

Call me crazy, but I do not believe that Derrek Lee has developed the ability to maintain a hit rate of close to 43% for the entire season. Please be sure to rub it in my face at the end of the year if he can do it.

:-D
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Postby nuggets » Sat Jun 25, 2005 1:38 am

beltrans_boy wrote:My contention is the following:

1) Derrek Lee's Batting Average on Balls in Play is abnormally high for a player of his skill set, and that we can most likely expect that number to regress from .425
2) As a result of this expected regression, Derrek Lee's batting average will drop.

Call me crazy, but I do not believe that Derrek Lee has developed the ability to maintain a hit rate of close to 43% for the entire season. Please be sure to rub it in my face at the end of the year if he can do it.

:-D


BB is right in that what he says is most likely. Don't question it, just read closely.

My question is, what is Lee most likely to regress to? Throughout his career he has shown improvement as the seasons goes on and that fact make it hard for me to be confident in my prediction of his production for the rest of the year. Can anyone put a mathematically accurate prediction on D. Lee’s future production?
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