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Postby Jagfan21 » Thu Jun 23, 2005 1:55 pm

derek lee is a legend
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Lugo Watch: SB - 24 HR - 2

Rehab is for quitters.

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http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1087805#1087805
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Postby WittyC » Thu Jun 23, 2005 2:01 pm

BB... haven't we gone over this in the D-Lee vs. Teix thread about a week ago? ;-)

First off, there is no way D-Lee keeps this up. But he's going to be a solid choice at 1B from here on out. It's a short list of guys I'd rather have then Lee for the rest of the season at 1B. As a matter of fact, their names are Albert and Mark.

However, BABIP might indicate that Lee is getting lucky thus far, but sometimes the stats can only tell you so much. Watch this guy play and you will see why he's hitting .390 right now.

He's sweet-stroking everything on a line, including what are good pitchers' pitches. His BB/K rate is greatly improved, which shows that he's just seeing the ball well.

It will still be a month or so before he cools down (he's typically not a strong finisher), so I'd ride him for at least another month, then dish him to fill your needs for a final push. Congrats to anyone who drafted him (kicking self in butt... Aubrey Huff!?!?!), but be smart and deal him. ;-D
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Postby reznorsboy » Thu Jun 23, 2005 2:06 pm

D. Lee will keep this up!! He may not get the triple crown but he will hit close to .350 with 45 and 130. There is no reason for him to slow down, he has kept this up while the cubs have went through winning streaks and slumps!!
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Postby Yoda » Thu Jun 23, 2005 2:38 pm

reznorsboy wrote:D. Lee will keep this up!! He may not get the triple crown but he will hit close to .350 with 45 and 130. There is no reason for him to slow down, he has kept this up while the cubs have went through winning streaks and slumps!!


I doubt he'll hit .350 but 45 and 130 are very achievable.

It's true that he is more selective this year but still not good enough to hit for average that high. Certainly would not trade him for anyone at this point if I had him.
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Postby Deuce » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:01 pm

I hope you guys aren't still selling out on him. There isn't any one or two players I would rather have on my roster right now. If you trade him for two players, I hope you either have an open bench spot or just had a horrible draft. Either way, he's started hot and has remained that way. Are you still holding Brian Roberts?

D. Lee for MVP - On my squad til the end.

If you're in one of my leagues and want to sell, I'm buying.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:17 pm

Two more home runs today so far. I would wait until at least starts to tail off for a week before you consider trading him. Hes continuing to put up the best numbers in fantasy baseball.
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Postby WittyC » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:17 pm

Okay... he's having a pretty good day... 3-for-3 with a pair of jacks and a walk. ;-D

Of course the Cubs are getting ready to blow the game. :-t
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Postby reiser » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:43 pm

beltrans_boy wrote:
reiser wrote:so can you defend BABIP in evaluating hitters or not? if not, why not just stick to OBP?

While there is a ton of fluctuation in BABIP from hitter to hitter,
It's less reliable than using it to evaluate pitchers, but it's still useful. Like I said, BABIP fluctuates quite a bit from player to player

so you can't defend it. you are misusing a stat basically. frankly, i think BABIP is a *crappy* way to evaluate picthers, much less hitters, and OBP is perfectly sufficient for this discussion.


beltrans_boy wrote:Well, we're not that far apart then.


i think we're pretty far apart on this, lol.
but this may illuminate my thinking a little more-I drafted Lee expecting a line of .280-28-90-10. If I get .320-35-110-20, why would i trade for Teixera, who I will still be surprised if he cracks .300.
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Postby WittyC » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:51 pm

reiser wrote:but this may illuminate my thinking a little more-I drafted Lee expecting a line of .280-28-90-10. If I get .320-35-110-20, why would i trade for Teixera, who I will still be surprised if he cracks .300.


Those numbers would mean that D-Lee will give you (not counting 2 jacks today), for the rest of the year...

.272-15-49-10

Not bad for half a season, but not huge. Guess it depends on how you think Teix will do, but I'd wager he'll better those numbers (especially RBI's) from here on out.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Thu Jun 23, 2005 5:07 pm

reiser wrote:
beltrans_boy wrote:
reiser wrote:so can you defend BABIP in evaluating hitters or not? if not, why not just stick to OBP?

While there is a ton of fluctuation in BABIP from hitter to hitter,
It's less reliable than using it to evaluate pitchers, but it's still useful. Like I said, BABIP fluctuates quite a bit from player to player

so you can't defend it. you are misusing a stat basically. frankly, i think BABIP is a *crappy* way to evaluate picthers, much less hitters, and OBP is perfectly sufficient for this discussion.


First of all, I'm not misusing the stat. OBP is not sufficient for this discussion because it is significantly dependent on BABIP. I went on to explain why we can expect Lee's BABIP to drop, but of course you left that out of my quote because it doesn't suit your argument. I'm not going to retype it again. If you want to believe that current OBP is a perfectly sufficient way to predict future performance, then go right ahead. You're allowed to be wrong. You have to look at the whole picture, and BABIP is a very significant part of that picture.

If Derrek Lee's BABIP is still over .425 at the end of the season, feel free to bump this thread and give me s*** til the cows come home...

reiser wrote:
beltrans_boy wrote:Well, we're not that far apart then.


i think we're pretty far apart on this, lol.
but this may illuminate my thinking a little more-I drafted Lee expecting a line of .280-28-90-10. If I get .320-35-110-20, why would i trade for Teixera, who I will still be surprised if he cracks .300.


Get this straight: As a fantasy owner, I don't care what Derrek Lee has done up until now, and neither should any Derrek Lee owners or buyers. All I care about are the numbers that he is going to put up between now and the end of the season. Everything else is water under the bridge.

You say that he's going to finish at .320, which would mean he'll hit about .280 from here on out. I say that he's going to hit about .290 from here on out. That's a 3% difference, and I'm saying that Derrek Lee is going to have a better 2nd half than you are! I'm not concerned with Lee's final numbers at all. I just want to look at what kind of production we can expect out of him from now until the end of the year...

Derrek Lee's final numbers are going to be ridiculous, but many fantasy owners are going to make the mistake of thinking he's going to produce at the same clip for the rest of the season. The numbers indicate that he will be hard pressed to sustain this kind of production, since a lot of it probably has to do with luck. Do you really think he's going to finish the year hitting .390?
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