linberg wrote:I've been watching Lee the past several years, and while I agree he might not keep this pace up, I really don't think he's gonna slow down that much. He's been undervalued every year, and is finally becoming a much more consistent hitter. I always like guys that progress nicely year to year, rather than flashes in the pan like Mr contract year Beltran. That's probably why most of us drafted Lee anyways, at least that's why I did.
All things considered, Beltran's had a pretty solid career all around, both in the time he spent in Kansas City and his stint in Houston. I really don't understand the whole 'contract year' or 'one good playoffs' argument with him, because his career numbers speak an entirely different language...
Well, Lee shows no signs of really slowing down, but his numbers are so far above his career stats that he couldn't get any higher if he snorted a pound of crack in a blimp. I just don't see how he can maintain such a pace, unless he made a deal with the devil or something.
I am the Master. Don't question the Master. Just do what he says and be proud.
Cleveland Steamers wrote:youre an idiot if you trade him for second round talent. that is ridiculous and shouldnt be read. second round talent is thome, cabrera, schmidt, rolen, ichiro, crawford, ortiz, beltre, jeter, etc. NONE of these guys are worth Lee right now. Nothing less than a stupid statement.
First of all, I'm not an idiot.
Second of all, by 2nd round talent, I meant top-25 value. In my league, I just saw Lee traded for Soriano. That's what I'm talking about.
[size=10]"Men are apt to mistake the strength of their feeling for the strength of their argument." [/size]
1) He isn't going to win the triple crown. 2) He won't hit anywhere close to .400. 3) He won't continue this torrid HR/RBI pace.
His BABIP is .432 (tops in the majors). As a reference, it was .306 last year. The BABIP should be around .300 from here on out, lowering his batting average in the process. where are you getting your BABIP numbers? i have only seen it for pitchers.
He's getting extremely lucky right now with the batting average, and the power is more than likely going to taper off at some point.
drafted Morneau huh? hehe.
Yes I did, but I don't know what this has to do with anything...
reiser wrote:anyway, let's talk about your contentions. 1-Triple Crown-I agree, if only because no one's done it, what since Yaz? and he certainly won't do it drawing all the IBB he should start seeing. Just 6 on the year, but I don't see a reason to pitch to him.
Well, we agree for different reasons, but that's fine.
reiser wrote:2-BA-we disagree. 3. Power-we disagree, though I think even you think the Power is less suspect than the other possibilities.
The power is less suspect than the batting average, but that doesn't mean it's going to continue either.
reiser wrote:If his BABIP is .432, that's only .30 ahead of what's he's hitting. same with his 2004 BABIP, his actual BA ends up at .280, his BABIP is close to .30 points ahead. So if his BABIP drops .30 points, you are still looking at a .350 hitter this year, which there's no reason to assume he isn't-his BABIP is higher first and foremost because he's putting the ball in play a lot more (he has a 100 hits so far this year, just 168 last year. edit: however, if there was a similiar contact rate, then that would make your case).
The contact rates from last year to this year are almost exactly the same. In fact, it was higher in 2004 than it has been so far in 2005. This is the reason why BABIP is so important. Lee doesn't put the ball in play all that often (around 66% of the time). His BABIP was .306 last year, which is right around where it should be. Right now, it's .432. That number is going to drop. From here on out, you can't count on his BABIP being anything higher than .306. As a result, you can't count on his batting average behind much higher than .300. In fact, Lee should hit around .280 the rest of the way. His luck isn't going to hold up for the rest of the year. His .392 average is largely attributable to luck, and BABIP shows just how lucky he's been getting.
Just a quick note, if Lee's BABIP was at .306 (like it was last year), he would be hitting .278 which is right in line with his career numbers.
reiser wrote:Basically if you have DLee, and I do in my money league-who would you even trade him for? He's basically outperforming everyone in the first round not named Abreu.
He's not outperforming everyone. He's outPERFORMED everyone until now. You've got to consider the rest of the year. If you can move Lee for a guy like Vlad or Pujols (I know that's an extreme example), then you've got to do it, simply because they're more than likely going to put up better numbers from here on out. People might say I'm crazy, but I'd rather have Teixeira than Lee from this day going forward.
Basically, Lee should be a .280 hitter with 15-20 HR power from here on out. Anything he does on top of that should be attributed to luck. Obviously, that's still valuable, but this guy is being traded for names like Soriano, Abreu, Guerrero and the like. If you can get legitimate top-25 talent for Lee, you'd be well served to take that.
Of course, don't sell lower on him than you have to. He's obviously putting up ridiculous numbers, and you should be looking to trade him for percieved value, which is that of a first or second rounder. Fantasy baseball is a lot like poker. You have to know when to hedge your bets. Could Derrick Lee continue this pace? Sure, anything is possible, but it's not bloody likely. Why not trade him for a guy who has demonstrated that he CAN hit .320 with power from here on out? That way, if/when Lee comes back down to Earth, you've actually upgraded your team, and if he continues to be one of the luckiest batters in the history of the game, then you're not downgrading too much.
My $0.02 again, I guess that makes 4 cents now...
[size=10]"Men are apt to mistake the strength of their feeling for the strength of their argument." [/size]
The same guys selling Dontrelle Willis are now selling high on D. Lee. Come on guys, if you had the foresight to draft these guys early, stick with them. They are not going to let you down like Chavez, Schmidt, Beltre and the other top 25 flops.
Don't sell out.
If you can get Pujols or Texeira, I agree, they may be worth it. However, don't trade straight-up, make it a package deal with a second tier player, where you get two quality players. Then he may be worth letting go. Sometimes players actually get better in their careers.
I suspect he'll slow down in August, like he naturally does. But his career trends point to him heating up in June and July. Since he can't get much hotter than this, I expect him to stay good during those times. He should still finish with retardedly high numbers. If you can get a Pujols, Vlad, Abreu, I'd probably be fine with it. On a sidenote, what is BABIP and how do you calculate it? Not a gripe, but you do come in here with a bunch of abbrevations that many people do not know. Maybe you should say what it stands for before you start going all abbreviation happy.
CubsFan7724 wrote:I suspect he'll slow down in August, like he naturally does. But his career trends point to him heating up in June and July. Since he can't get much hotter than this, I expect him to stay good during those times. He should still finish with retardedly high numbers. If you can get a Pujols, Vlad, Abreu, I'd probably be fine with it. On a sidenote, what is BABIP and how do you calculate it? Not a gripe, but you do come in here with a bunch of abbrevations that many people do not know. Maybe you should say what it stands for before you start going all abbreviation happy.
BABIP stands for Batting Average on Balls In Play
It's calculated like this:
(H-HR)/(AB+SH+SF-SO-HR)
BABIP is the percentage of batted balls that fall in to the field for a hit. The league average is around 30% of the time (or .300), but some hitters can exceed this on a regular basis (take Ichiro, for example) based on factors such as speed, LD%, etc. For arguments' sake though, .300 is a good number to focus our attention on, especially since Lee hasn't shown any Ichiro-like ability to raise his BABIP in the past.
It's just worth noting that Lee's BABIP has jumped over 15% from last year to this year. That kind of discrepancy cannot be expected to continue.
Sorry, I should have explained myself better
[size=10]"Men are apt to mistake the strength of their feeling for the strength of their argument." [/size]
Yes I did, but I don't know what this has to do with anything...
it's a joke! i targeted Lee and Konerko in my fantasy leagues, and you can basically surmise where I am in these leagues based on who i got. on the plus side, i just didn't feel Helton or Thome offered any real upside.
reiser wrote:his BABIP is higher first and foremost because he's putting the ball in play a lot more (he has a 100 hits so far this year, just 168 last year. edit: however, if there was a similiar contact rate, then that would make your case).
beltrans_boy wrote:The contact rates from last year to this year are almost exactly the same. In fact, it was higher in 2004 than it has been so far in 2005. This is the reason why BABIP is so important. Lee doesn't put the ball in play all that often (around 66% of the time). His BABIP was .306 last year, which is right around where it should be. Right now, it's .432. That number is going to drop. From here on out, you can't count on his BABIP being anything higher than .306. As a result, you can't count on his batting average behind much higher than .300. In fact, Lee should hit around .280 the rest of the way. His luck isn't going to hold up for the rest of the year. His .392 average is largely attributable to luck, and BABIP shows just how lucky he's been getting.
First-where are you getting your numbers? I would like to see the contact rate and the BABIP numbers.
Second-is it really luck? well no, I don't think you would say his power numbers are luck. so that explains some of the higher AVG right there, and most Saber-minded folk love the long ball
Finally, I just don't think you sell the hot hand in standard 5x5, though keeper is obviously more complex.
Yes I did, but I don't know what this has to do with anything...
it's a joke! i targeted Lee and Konerko in my fantasy leagues, and you can basically surmise where I am in these leagues based on who i got. on the plus side, i just didn't feel Helton or Thome offered any real upside.
reiser wrote:his BABIP is higher first and foremost because he's putting the ball in play a lot more (he has a 100 hits so far this year, just 168 last year. edit: however, if there was a similiar contact rate, then that would make your case).
beltrans_boy wrote:The contact rates from last year to this year are almost exactly the same. In fact, it was higher in 2004 than it has been so far in 2005. This is the reason why BABIP is so important. Lee doesn't put the ball in play all that often (around 66% of the time). His BABIP was .306 last year, which is right around where it should be. Right now, it's .432. That number is going to drop. From here on out, you can't count on his BABIP being anything higher than .306. As a result, you can't count on his batting average behind much higher than .300. In fact, Lee should hit around .280 the rest of the way. His luck isn't going to hold up for the rest of the year. His .392 average is largely attributable to luck, and BABIP shows just how lucky he's been getting.
First-where are you getting your numbers? I would like to see the contact rate and the BABIP numbers.
I miscalculated the contact rate. Mea culpa, mea culpa.
It's actually (AB-K)/(AB). Lee's contact rate this year is 80%, and it was 78% last year. My mistake. Of course, the result is the same. Lee's contact rate hasn't drastically improved at all.
As far as the BABIP numbers, you can find them on a lot of stat sites. I got mine from The Hardball Times. You can find the BABIP leaders here:
reiser wrote:Second-is it really luck? well no, I don't think you would say his power numbers are luck. so that explains some of the higher AVG right there, and most Saber-minded folk love the long ball
Well, the BABIP is luck. There's no way around that. As far as the power numbers...yes, those do increase the batting average, but not very significantly (not enough to boost him from a career .280 hitter to a circa-.400 hitter). His average is largely the result of his INSANELY high BABIP. You can't assume that his BABIP is going to stay anywhere near .432.
reiser wrote:Finally, I just don't think you sell the hot hand in standard 5x5, though keeper is obviously more complex.
I think if you can get top-25 value for Lee based on the numbers he's put up so far, you've got to jump on it.
[size=10]"Men are apt to mistake the strength of their feeling for the strength of their argument." [/size]
The same guys selling Dontrelle Willis are now selling high on D. Lee. Come on guys, if you had the foresight to draft these guys early, stick with them
Yeah and Willis has a 1.30 WHIP over his past 9 starts and has been extremely lucky to not have around a 3.5 ERA over that stretch. There is absolutely no reason to stick with a hot player in fantasy sports. You trade them for someone that WILL be good the 2nd half instead of keeping them and hoping they stay good. You can't undersell them though, you have to actually sell them high. You aren't dumping Lee just to get rid of him, you get a 1st or 2nd round pick for him and even if Lee keeps it up you get more than you originally payed for him and in the very likely event he slips back to his normal numbers you win big time. Selling high is a win/win situation.
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by bigh0rt » Tue Jun 21, 2005 10:35 am 
My $0.02 again, I guess that makes 4 cents now...
