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Derek Lee

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Derek Lee

Postby Tis » Tue Jun 21, 2005 12:48 am

Dare I say it? I know its completely unreasonable, million to one shot... but

Triple Crown AND .400? (.392 as of today)

bah, ive cursed him. .200 from here out :/


On a more serious note, should I be trying to sell high on him?
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Postby eftda » Tue Jun 21, 2005 12:49 am

I'm holding onto him till I see some real decline.
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Postby Tis » Tue Jun 21, 2005 12:50 am

indeed.... i keep watching for a slowdown, but if anything hes getting hotter
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Postby eftda » Tue Jun 21, 2005 12:51 am

You should start talking to other mangers and seeing how they would rank them. You can always start the trade talks before your ready. ;-D
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Postby bigh0rt » Tue Jun 21, 2005 12:55 am

I'd say he's fully capable of pulling down the Triple Crown, even if he tails off slightly, which I expect.

.400 though? I don't think so. As good a season as he's having, he'd have to kick it up another notch to get up above .400, nevermind maintain it.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Tue Jun 21, 2005 4:52 am

A couple of things...

1) He isn't going to win the triple crown.
2) He won't hit anywhere close to .400.
3) He won't continue this torrid HR/RBI pace.

His BABIP is .432 (tops in the majors). As a reference, it was .306 last year. The BABIP should be around .300 from here on out, lowering his batting average in the process.

His HR/F rate is 22%, which is very high. That should fall. Maybe it won't, but more than likely, it will.

If you can get 1st or 2nd round talent for Lee right now, go ahead and take it. He won't continue this torrid pace. He's getting extremely lucky right now with the batting average, and the power is more than likely going to taper off at some point. Of course, don't undersell him either. He's having a great year, just not as great as the numbers would indicated.

Anyway, that's my $0.02.
[size=10]"Men are apt to mistake the strength of their feeling for the strength of their argument." [/size]
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Tue Jun 21, 2005 5:16 am

youre an idiot if you trade him for second round talent. that is ridiculous and shouldnt be read. second round talent is thome, cabrera, schmidt, rolen, ichiro, crawford, ortiz, beltre, jeter, etc. NONE of these guys are worth Lee right now. Nothing less than a stupid statement.
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Postby jjigglers » Tue Jun 21, 2005 6:37 am

Cleveland Steamers wrote:youre an idiot if you trade him for second round talent. that is ridiculous and shouldnt be read. second round talent is thome, cabrera, schmidt, rolen, ichiro, crawford, ortiz, beltre, jeter, etc. NONE of these guys are worth Lee right now. Nothing less than a stupid statement.


As stupid as you claiming those players as second round talent?
:-?

I'm sure he meant current value, so be a little easier on him, eh?
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Postby Irish » Tue Jun 21, 2005 7:58 am

jjigglers wrote:
Cleveland Steamers wrote:youre an idiot if you trade him for second round talent. that is ridiculous and shouldnt be read. second round talent is thome, cabrera, schmidt, rolen, ichiro, crawford, ortiz, beltre, jeter, etc. NONE of these guys are worth Lee right now. Nothing less than a stupid statement.


As stupid as you claiming those players as second round talent?
:-?

I'm sure he meant current value, so be a little easier on him, eh?


What do you expect from a guy named Cleveland Steamers? :-t
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Postby reiser » Tue Jun 21, 2005 9:17 am

beltrans_boy wrote:A couple of things...

1) He isn't going to win the triple crown.
2) He won't hit anywhere close to .400.
3) He won't continue this torrid HR/RBI pace.

His BABIP is .432 (tops in the majors). As a reference, it was .306 last year. The BABIP should be around .300 from here on out, lowering his batting average in the process. where are you getting your BABIP numbers? i have only seen it for pitchers.

He's getting extremely lucky right now with the batting average, and the power is more than likely going to taper off at some point.


drafted Morneau huh? hehe.

anyway, let's talk about your contentions.
1-Triple Crown-I agree, if only because no one's done it, what since Yaz? and he certainly won't do it drawing all the IBB he should start seeing. Just 6 on the year, but I don't see a reason to pitch to him.
2-BA-we disagree.
3. Power-we disagree, though I think even you think the Power is less suspect than the other possibilities.

If his BABIP is .432, that's only .30 ahead of what's he's hitting. same with his 2004 BABIP, his actual BA ends up at .280, his BABIP is close to .30 points ahead. So if his BABIP drops .30 points, you are still looking at a .350 hitter this year, which there's no reason to assume he isn't-his BABIP is higher first and foremost because he's putting the ball in play a lot more (he has a 100 hits so far this year, just 168 last year. edit: however, if there was a similiar contact rate, then that would make your case).

Basically if you have DLee, and I do in my money league-who would you even trade him for? He's basically outperforming everyone in the first round not named Abreu.
Last edited by reiser on Tue Jun 21, 2005 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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