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Miggy Cab drop-off?

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Miggy Cab drop-off?

Postby RAmst23 » Thu Jun 16, 2005 3:44 pm

I'd like to start and say this is speculation on my part, and not something I heard from anywhere. Does anyone else think Miguel Cabrera's fantasy value will drop after the AS break? Basically the question is, can he keep up the .340 AVG? I'll agree that the power and run production will stay there, but right now alot of his value is coming from that .340 avg to go along with the RBI and R (The 11 HR is great, but not really that prolific in that category.)

I've thought about trading Cabrera away right now, as his value is extremely high. Getting a mid-range OF for him plus a stud pitcher I think will be a great return on him, as he's probably being overrated right now. He's doing great in 3 categories, and if his BA drops he'll be doing well in just 2. Any thoughts on this, am I just flat out wrong (A first I must say! :-b )

Also, I'd like more weight to be added to this analysis now, seeing as I have now become a "Minor League Mentor".. Just wanted to point that out.
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike
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Postby chinch sacs » Thu Jun 16, 2005 3:52 pm

I think he will slow down. He wont be bad by any means, but I think he hits .280 -.290 the rest of the way, and since Delgado has turned it on, Miggy has been getting fewer RBIs and has been striking out more. He has 11 K's in the last 10 games.

If the Marlins trade Encarnacion, Cabrera will have even less oppertunity to be knocked in by Conine, so I think the Runs will slow down alittle also.
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Postby AT » Thu Jun 16, 2005 4:18 pm

I can certainly see his average coming back to earth a little bit, but it has already...As for his run production (R, RBI, HR), it's not like he's been knocking the cover off the ball in an unreasonable manner for power so I don't see any reason he will slow down his HR pace and RBI rate unless the Marlins make some dumb trades or something. I can see him ending up with something like 38HR, 120RBI, 100R, and about .315Avg. If he gets to those #s or close to it, I'll be thrilled with his production. I drafted him 16th overall in my 10 Team H2H (A little high I guess) but I think I'm getting my moneys worth and will continue to do so. No complaints here.
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Postby nuggets » Thu Jun 16, 2005 4:33 pm

I think he'll bat around .315 post AS. I treat Cabrera like Teixeira -great potential- and I'm getting a whole lot of garuntees in any deal that sends him off. I wouldn't be suprised to see Cabrera finish the year at a .330 AVG
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Postby Manfred » Thu Jun 16, 2005 4:40 pm

chinch sacs wrote:I think he will slow down. He wont be bad by any means, but I think he hits .280 -.290 the rest of the way, and since Delgado has turned it on, Miggy has been getting fewer RBIs and has been striking out more. He has 11 K's in the last 10 games.

If the Marlins trade Encarnacion, Cabrera will have even less oppertunity to be knocked in by Conine, so I think the Runs will slow down alittle also.


He has been moved back to the 3 spot int he order, in front of delgado. RBI should actually increase if Pierre starts getting on base more often. Runs will be fine well as delgado will knock him in and Lowell is starting to hit. Average may come down a little, but I don' think it will tank. I think he finishes the year int he .315-.320 neighborhood. I actually think his HRs will increase in the seocnd half.

All in all, I wouldn't call him a sell high candidate. Hold on to him and enjoy watching one of the top 2 or 3 young talents in the game.
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Postby RAmst23 » Thu Jun 16, 2005 5:23 pm

Thanks for the input!! ;-D

That's a really good point that the rest of the Marlins' lineup is starting to turn it on. Pierre is running again and Lowell looks to be back at it. So yea, unless I get some real safe players in return, I think it's time to continue riding the MCab train.
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike
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Postby Yoda » Thu Jun 16, 2005 5:29 pm

nuggets wrote:I think he'll bat around .315 post AS. I treat Cabrera like Teixeira -great potential- and I'm getting a whole lot of garuntees in any deal that sends him off. I wouldn't be suprised to see Cabrera finish the year at a .330 AVG


Agreed. The kid is only 22. He's got a world of talent and as long as he follows his current progression, he'll be awesome.
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Postby bd3521 » Thu Jun 16, 2005 8:17 pm

Miggy is money in the bank for 15 years to come
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Postby slomo007 » Thu Jun 16, 2005 10:02 pm

I'm going to go so far as to say that he's bordering on Pujols status in keeper leagues. Yes, I said it. :-)
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Postby coachdino » Fri Jun 17, 2005 2:12 am

I don't see much of a drop off in avg., and I see an increase in power. As stated earlier, Lowell will heat up and that will be HUGE for the Marlins.
I assume you are not in a keeper league. If you are not, than you might get over value for him. If you are in a keeper league, it is almost impossible to get over value in a trade.
I have M. Cab, Peavy and Tex in my keeper league ;-D
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