Derek Lowe: On the decline, or in a temporary rut?

[jjigglers]

Derek started out the year great, with two starts with only 2 ER each, followed by two shutout starts (9.0 IP and 8.0 IP). Since those first 4 starts, however, Derek carries a 4.67 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP, and the teams he faces with good offenses seem to be roughing him up.

Of course, with each pitcher if you take out his best starts, his ratios wont look that pretty, but is Derek on a decline that he cant rebound from?

His career splits might have the answer.
For whatever reason, Derek's career month by month splits are as such:

Code: Select all

Month:       Career
April:       3.52
May:         4.44
June:        3.74
July:        4.94
August:      3.16
September:   3.38

First Half:  4.03
Second Half: 3.62


Lowe had a great April, a bad May, and an bad June (so far). His splits point to him settling down and posting nice stats in the 2nd half, but what do you think?

[uucrook3d]

lowe is just an up and down pitcher. one day you will get 7 innings of shutout ball. the next you will get 5 er through 6 ip. you just never know

[Bukoski77]

Lowe is just in a rut. He isn’t a high Strikeout guy but that isn’t a big deal as he has never been too horrible giving up walks. He is throwing less pitches (almost 3 less per inning to ) per inning this year and his walk rate is dropping from 3.5 per 9INN last season to 1.66 per 9 INN this year. A lot of it can be attributed to the switch to the NL seeing weaker offenses and playing in a better pitchers park, but he is still decent. He isn’t as good as his 2002 year but he is better than 03 and 04. As long as he keeps getting hitters to ground out and doesn’t walk too many batters he will be a fine 3rd or 4th fantasy pitcher..

He gave up 13 hits and 6 runs 2 starts ago against the Twins but only walked one batter that outing. Later last week he gave up 5 hits and 5 runs to the Twins but didn’t walk anyone. In between those starts he was great against the Tigers. Over his last 3 starts he has 13 Strikeouts and only 2 walks. He wont be able to sustain his K – BB ratio to that level as he isn’t that good of a pitcher. Aside from those two outings he has only had one bad outing on the year which was over a month ago at Cincinnati where he gave up 6 runs. Aside from those games he has had 1 game where he gave up 4 runs (but struck out 7 with only one walk), at home against Arizona. His other 10 starts on the year he has 2 games without giving up a run and hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in the other 8.

Chalk his recent 2 bad match ups to bad luck. Maybe be cautious starting him on the road against the better offenses in hitters parks, but for the most park he is a decent option and should be good to go.

[jjigglers]

Makes sense, great post.

[The Jury]

With regards to your topic, I think it's totally inappropriate to say that Derek Lowe is on the decline. I think "on the decline" is now being used to describe too many players without much evidence. Derek Lowe never really was an outstanding pitcher for any lengthy period of time (2001 first half had an extremely low hit percentage ala Jon Garland 2005). He's basically a Jeff Weaver-like pitcher with a bit of a higher floor.

[jjigglers]

With regards to your topic, I think it's totally inappropriate to say that Derek Lowe is on the decline. I think "on the decline" is now being used to describe too many players without much evidence. Derek Lowe never really was an outstanding pitcher for any lengthy period of time (2001 first half had an extremely low hit percentage ala Jon Garland 2005). He's basically a Jeff Weaver-like pitcher with a bit of a higher floor.

I wasnt alluding to a career decline, or anything like that. But so many players each year start hot each year, with most of them waking up and pitching like their career stats say they should. That was my definition of a decline.

[blankman]

Derek Lowe just isn't a very good pitcher. He has his rare moments, but he's not very good. Not much to decline from.

[NZF]

Typical sinkerballer. When he's on he's very effective but if he's not locating he's very hittable. This type of pitcher also relies heavily on his defence and they haven't backed him up that well this season.

Over a quarter of his runs allowed have been unearned.

Overall he will post very solid 4th starter numbers for you.