rainman23 wrote:I don't buy that lineup protection thing at all. Maybe I'd feel different if I could see some Rockies games. Based strictly on reviewing the box scores and vomiting every day, though...I'd at least expect him to be walking more if they were pitching around him. He's K'd as often as he's walked this year, way down from his typical ratio. You'd expect it to be the other way, wouldn't you, if nobody was pitching to him?
I gotta say, at this point, anybody who is pitching around Helton is making a serious mistake.
his k/bb is a little worse than his career average, you're right about that. but he's had years when he had equal or worse k/bb ratio and still hit 35 113 .320 (1999), 49 146 .336 (2001), and 30 109 .329 (2002). he's also drawn the 7th most walks so far in baseball, and is on pace to walk (103) nearly equal to or more times than he did in 2000 to 2002 (103, 98, 99 respectively).
i don't think the answer for his slump lies in his k/bb or bb or lineup protection. i don't know exactly what it is either, but my guess would be that it's either mental (like a-rod last year), intentional (setting it up so that when he asks for a trade the rockies fans don't blast him? he never seemed like that kind of a guy though and even to me that sounds farfetched), or physical (injuries or steroids - although i never thought of him as the kind of guy who'd use steroids though).
if i had to choose out of those 3 right now, i'd go with mental, which also gives him the best chance of turning it around in the 2nd half.
Last edited by Laean on Wed Jun 15, 2005 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Laean wrote:warrick, yanks, i also don't think the lack of lineup protection is the answer to helton's problems either, but i just wanted to mention that he did have some last year.
though preston was out, he had castilla 35 131 and burnitz 37 110. not saying they're great hitters in general, but when playing half their games at coors they sure look like it.
This is true. It is hard to consider Burnitz a meaningful threat to any opposing team, but in Coors he would/did garner a bit of respect.
As to whether people will cut helton in a few weeks, you can debate the wisdom of it, but I can tell you from experience it will start to happen, esp in non-keepers. At some point, you have to admit a bust. Whether that is July or August for someone like Helton is up to individual opinions of course and what options are around. I would not do it, but I am sure many will. Usaully the AS break is where you see a lot of owners clean house and if come mid July Helton is doing his Mienkeqitz impersonation, I woul dbet he drops to 50-67% ownership.
I tend to think that with someone like Helton, cutting your losses becomes locking in a loss. You sink or swim with him as a first rounder. Selling him for a Klesko type is hardly going to be a useful thing. Makes no differnece if you finish 5th or 7th in most cases. Top players going bust on you usually signal a death blow to your chances and you are not going to get someone to give you Tex or any othe rdecent player for Helton right now.
i'd disagree. you aren't going to ever be able to fob of helton for a better performing first baseman. why would the owners of the other good ones bother to do that?
however, you can most certianly pull an asymmetrical trade with him. his name still carries value.
I don't think of it as "locking ina loss"
so you just sit on your hands and wait for things to crap out on you?
Or do you take a bit of a gamble and get totally useful pieces that can move up your aggregate score?
Or at some point do you buy high on say a nick johnson type and perhaps, this is his year. The fact is that you can save yourself somewhat. You still would have needed to be generating value through trades and the wire to save it, but you should always be doing those things anyway.
I have him in three leagues and am in second in two, fifth out of 12 in the last, and realistically, I have a good shot at making a run, despite both he and schmidt busting out on me.