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Eric Chavez is OFFICIALLY Back.

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Postby George_Foreman » Mon Jun 13, 2005 12:52 am

haha. :-D

as for "third-round value"... well, i've got his BA closer to .300, but 35 HR and 120 RBI are about what i was looking for. and yes, i think that's top-35 material.
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Postby davidmarver » Mon Jun 13, 2005 3:06 am

(High-fives Beltrans_boy)
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Postby beltrans_boy » Mon Jun 13, 2005 3:22 am

davidmarver wrote:(High-fives Beltrans_boy)


Hooah!

B-)
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Postby beltrans_boy » Mon Jun 13, 2005 1:13 pm

nuggets wrote:
DGroundhog wrote:Definitely a nice trend over the last few weeks, but it's still been a bit frustrating. Finally a little payoff. He's got a way to go before 'he's back' or has redeemed his value to any great extent.


I'm wondering which Chavez we will get. The '01/'02 version with a relatively poor BB:K, 33ish HR and .870 range OPS as his showing signs of this year? Or something more like last year with a nice BB:K and .900 range OPS, which was very nice last season in the second half of the year for my H2H $ league that counts BB, K and OPS. He showed signs of this near 1:1 BB:K ability post-AS last in '03 also. Oh BBoy, what can I expect?


Expect around a 1:1 K/BB ratio with an OPS around .875-.925 from here on out. He's been improving his discipline at the plate steadily every year since 2001. That's one of the reasons why I'm so high on him.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Mon Jun 13, 2005 7:48 pm

nuggets wrote:His BB:K is right at the '01 level now. One main reason I have the question.

His IsoP has dropped since '01, can you explain?


His K/BB rate is at '01 levels right now, largely because of that early season slump. He simply wasn't seeing the ball well. It's too early to tell whether or not he's reverted to old habits. Let's wait until the end of the season before we come to any conclusions about his plate discipline.

His Isolated Power has dropped, but his HR rate has climbed:

2004 - 16.38
2003 - 20.28
2002 - 17.21
2001 - 17.25
2000 - 19.27

With the exception of 2003, his HR rate has been steadily increasing since 2000 (his first full season in the majors), but his IsoP has dropped.

So what does this tell me? His doubles and triples rates have dropped (except in 2003). Let's see if this is the case:

2004 - 23.75
2003 - 13.36
2002 - 17.21
2001 - 12.84

Yup, it's true. Over the last 4 years, Chavez has become more of a HR hitter than a gap doubles and triples hitter. What's the reason for the dropoff in 2003? Your guess is as good as mine, but I'm guessing it's not significant since he improved on those numbers in 2004.

Look for Eric to have a huge 2nd half. His K/BB ratios should be right in line with (or close enough to) his 2004 numbers, and he should improve on that 16.38 AB/HR ratio as well.

Isolated power is just a very small part of the big picture. You can't really look at individual metrics, you have to look at all of them in order to see the big picture.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Mon Jun 13, 2005 9:01 pm

nuggets wrote:
beltrans_boy wrote:His Isolated Power has dropped, but his HR rate has climbed:

2004 - 16.38
2003 - 20.28
2002 - 17.21
2001 - 17.25
2000 - 19.27

With the exception of 2003, his HR rate has been steadily increasing since 2000 (his first full season in the majors), but his IsoP has dropped.

So what does this tell me? His doubles and triples rates have dropped (except in 2003). Let's see if this is the case:

2004 - 23.75
2003 - 13.36
2002 - 17.21
2001 - 12.84

Yup, it's true. Over the last 4 years, Chavez has become more of a HR hitter than a gap doubles and triples hitter. What's the reason for the dropoff in 2003? Your guess is as good as mine, but I'm guessing it's not significant since he improved on those numbers in 2004.

Look for Eric to have a huge 2nd half. His K/BB ratios should be right in line with (or close enough to) his 2004 numbers, and he should improve on that 16.38 AB/HR ratio as well.

Isolated power is just a very small part of the big picture. You can't really look at individual metrics, you have to look at all of them in order to see the big picture.


Do you see how personally your explination for Chavez is dependent on exluding certian years/stats and highlightng others? Factor that in, as I do, when you consider Tejada, and not in a purely negative way. :-)


Re-read my post. I never "excluded" any years. I simply stated the trend of positive growth from 2001 to 2004. 2003 is an outlier, for whatever reason, but the overall trend is there. I think even you can see that, nuggets.

You asked why his IsoP is down, and I showed you. The IsoP is down because Chavez is hitting less doubles and triples than he did earlier in his career.

You seem to want to argue about the semantics of my argument while ignoring the numbers that are right in front of your face. I'm not trying to pull the wool over anyone's eyes here. Save your conspiracy theories for something worthwhile.
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