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Is Hudson's ERA a fluke?

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Is Hudson's ERA a fluke?

Postby chadxor » Tue Jun 07, 2005 8:46 pm

Not sure if it has been covered before, but don't his stats indicate that he probably should not have a 3.08 ERA? Dude has a 47/31 k/bb and a 1.41 WHIP. He's also already gave up 6 homers, which is only two short of last year.

Any thoughts? Sell high kinda guy, or should you just stay put and not think so much?
Last edited by chadxor on Tue Jun 07, 2005 9:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby cordscords » Tue Jun 07, 2005 8:59 pm

Stay put. He's a proven pitcher that has just gotten into some jams this season and pitched his way out of them.

He's a-ok ;-D
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Postby beltrans_boy » Tue Jun 07, 2005 9:03 pm

I'm kind of wondering the same thing. Can someone who follows Hudson on a regular basis give us some sort of insight? He's never had a very low WHIP, but his peripherals are blowing up all over the place, and all signs point to trouble.

Is this just vintage Hudson, or should we be weary of his performance to date? I don't know how his ERA is going to stay so low with such bad peripherals. He's not getting particularly unlucky, and those HRs concern me quite a bit. Huddy's never been a strikeout guy, so the K/BB ratio doesn't concern me as much as it would most other pitchers, but still, it doesn't look good.

Anyway, what can we expect outta this guy?

C'mon Leo, work your magic, baby. ;-D
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Postby tomkatt » Tue Jun 07, 2005 9:16 pm

I've watched most of Tim's starts this year. Truthfully he hasn't impressed me all that much. He's had a couple of really good starts. Seems more often than not he's got the bases full of runners.

He has that crazy kind of movement on his pitches a la Greg Maddux. Certainly not overpowering stuff though. What worries me about his situation are the Braves' bullpen and offense.

Tim will need to pitch a lot better than he has if he wants to win on this team right now. Giving up 10 hits and 5 walks is probably not the best way to do it. :-B
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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Tue Jun 07, 2005 10:12 pm

There's no question in my mind that he's getting incredibly lucky. But I'm holding onto him, hoping he'll start pitching better before his luck catches up to him. Hudson's been a pretty consistent pitcher from year to year, and the move to the NL can only help, I would think. So, although he's definitely pitching pretty poorly right now, hopefully he can turn it around before his ERA starts to reflect how he's been pitching.
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Postby sdslugger9 » Tue Jun 07, 2005 10:30 pm

I have watched all of his starts and he was very mediocre during the beginning of the season. However, he has already shown some signs of solid pitching to come. He has increased his groundball numbers and has really thrown a ton of strikes. I believe his numbers will steadily improve.
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Re: Is Hudson's ERA a fluke?

Postby The Jury » Wed Jun 08, 2005 12:01 am

chadxor wrote:Not sure if it has been covered before, but don't his stats indicate that he probably should not have a 3.08 ERA? Dude has a 47/31 k/bb and a 1.41 WHIP. He's also already gave up 6 homers, which is only two short of last year.

Any thoughts? Sell high kinda guy, or should you just stay put and not think so much?


Basically, I think we're looking for some crunched numbers such as his opponents' hit percentage this season, and maybe some form of a theoretical vs. actual ERA. Unfortunately, I don't have these numbers. Maybe one of the cafe's statheads can drop by :D
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Postby mamorris » Wed Jun 08, 2005 12:18 am

Well his DIPS is something like 4.2, which isn't ghastly, but not great either and nowhere near his ERA right now. That seems to be a result of walking more batters, so based on what he's done so far, it's definitely a fluke. I don't own him on any teams, so I have no idea as to his market value, but it might be worth seeing what you can get for him. Given that he doesn't get many Ks and the Braves offense is mediocre, I'd say his fantasy ceiling isn't terribly high. Maybe Mazzone gets him fixed up and he turns it around, but if you can get someone of equal quality who doesn't need fixing, I'd do it.
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Postby baseballnewb » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:47 am

Braves pitchers always have a better ERA than their numbers indicate. I couldn't tell you why exactly but year after year it happens, see Ortiz, Russ and Ramirez, Horacio last year for examples.
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Postby colt4523 » Wed Jun 08, 2005 11:21 am

I have watched most of hudson's start and the one thing I noticed he was constantly behind the hitters. A couple of games I watched, I could barely remember him starting any hitter with a strike. His lack of first pitch strikes has lead to more walks and him having to pitch out of more jams.
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