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Preseason predictions - accuracy

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Preseason predictions - accuracy

Postby quietstorm » Fri May 27, 2005 4:00 pm

If you made any preseason standings/playoffs predictions, how are they turning out, so far? Using Baseball Prospectus' postseason odds report, I checked mine. (I'm certain I posted them on the Cafe, if you want to search for them. Or you can find them at another board, here. I'm the thread-starter on that post.)

Looks like I completely bombed in the AL. Anybody else not see any of this coming? I picked the Sox, Indians, and A's to win their divisions, and the Yanks as the WC. The chance of this happening, minus the wild card distinction (so, the chance of all these teams even reaching the playoffs together) is .019%. The chance of the division winners panning out is .018%. Ouch.

On the bright side, my NL division champ picks (Braves, Cards, Padres) are all looking good, and BP has an 11.043% chance of them winning their divisions together; and a 21.056% chance of them reaching the playoffs together (I picked the Cubbies as my WC pick - ouch).

How's the year looking compared to you expectations?[/url]
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Re: Preseason predictions - accuracy

Postby Madison » Fri May 27, 2005 5:13 pm

quietstorm wrote:I picked the Sox, Indians, and A's to win their divisions


I have tons of posts saying the A's would not win the division. Trade away their #1 and #2 starters for two kids and still no bats? Didn't stand a chance this year.

I picked the Angels to win it, but will root and hope for my Rangers to pull an upset. ;-D

However, in several posts, I did mention that the A's could/should be a force in a year or two provided they get a couple of guys who actually hit the ball to help out what should be a very nice starting staff.
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Postby quietstorm » Fri May 27, 2005 6:58 pm

The thing is, the A's are losing in a way nobody expected: They're not hitting for power or even getting on base. Most people expected at least some decline in pitching, but this sort of batting wasn't on anybody's radar.
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Postby reznorsboy » Fri May 27, 2005 7:00 pm

I predicted great thing from D. Lee.... which is an amazing prediction :-o
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Postby quietstorm » Fri May 27, 2005 7:08 pm

reznorsboy wrote:I predicted great thing from D. Lee.... which is an amazing prediction :-o

I predicted an Adam Eaton breakout. So far... well, not a huge breakout with that WHIP, but not bad. 2.5:1 K/BB ratio, more or less. 2.85:1 if you throw out his game on May 2.

Okay, so it's not a breakout. But it's certainly enough to make him a valuable starter.
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Postby RAmst23 » Fri May 27, 2005 7:19 pm

I'm on so far with the Cardinals winning the Central (duh, from StLouis, that was a real stretch for me), Padres and Marlins, with the Braves getting the WC. AL I picked Anaheim, Twins, and the Yankees with the Red Sox getting the WC.

I've done fairly good on predictions this year, but have bombed a few. I thought Burrell would do well, and he has. Also thought Jim Thome would destroy the ball, and as you can see, I'm dead on with that one. I thought Vernon Wells would do fantastic too. Julio Lugo has done great, as has Colon (Who has been magnificent and went late in drafts)...

It's still early yet, but in 6 leagues I'm no farther back than 3rd place and am 1st in two. Just have to keep reading and stay active!!
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Postby quietstorm » Fri May 27, 2005 7:22 pm

I think Thome's career is over.

And I'm actually doing poorly in the league where I didn't ride my insticts; when I went with solid, established players, I did poorly: Helton, Jason Kendall, Brad Lidge, and Keith Foulke all in one league.
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