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Is it Reitsma now?

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Postby macca » Thu May 26, 2005 1:25 pm

klvrdude wrote:
stumpak wrote: Unlike everyone else in the mix, he has actually been sharp this year. It would not surprise in the least if he of even Sosa got a look at some point.


I said it when everyone was speculating Bernero, if anyone within the Braves organization is going to replace Kolb its going to be Reitsma. Sure Bernero has had good numbers this year, but talk about your mother load of anomolies, have you seen his career numbers?!?!! He hasn't had an ERA of under 5.0 since his rookie year in 2000. Reitsma is no second coming of Smoltz, but at least he has notched some saves over the last few years.


I disagree. If there's ANYTHING this year has taught us, it is that you can't go by a person's career stats to decide if he is going to be a good closer. Let's see, we have Lyon, Walker, Hermanson and Turnbow. And that is just from this year. I'm not saying Reitsma's not the guy, but to say, "Look at Bernero's career stats", I don't think that is much of an indicator of what kind of closer he would be if he got the shot. Also, FWIW, I do not own Bernero.
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Postby Justus » Thu May 26, 2005 1:46 pm

The reason Kolb was originally warming up was because Reitsma was next in the batting order. Had Raul Mondesi gotten a hit (an outside chance, I know), Cox would have pinch hit for Reitsma and brought in Kolb in the ninth.
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Postby klvrdude » Thu May 26, 2005 2:08 pm

macca wrote:I disagree. If there's ANYTHING this year has taught us, it is that you can't go by a person's career stats to decide if he is going to be a good closer. Let's see, we have Lyon, Walker, Hermanson and Turnbow. And that is just from this year. I'm not saying Reitsma's not the guy, but to say, "Look at Bernero's career stats", I don't think that is much of an indicator of what kind of closer he would be if he got the shot. Also, FWIW, I do not own Bernero.


I think you need to look at the numbers a little closer. Both Lyon and Hermanson had, though brief, short stints as closers prior to this year. Turnbow is very young and has no real "career" record and I beleive he was groomed for relief work w/in the Brewers. As for Walker, I think its too early to say anything on him.

I think its very reasonable to say "Look at Bernero's career stats". Do you really believe that his career 5.56 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over 340 IP is irrelavent?
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Postby Yoda » Thu May 26, 2005 2:18 pm

klvrdude wrote:I think its very reasonable to say "Look at Bernero's career stats". Do you really believe that his career 5.56 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over 340 IP is irrelavent?


It is completely irrelevant at this point. He's never shown the control or the command he has right now.

Do you think it's fair to say Roberts won't hit another HR for the rest of the season b/c he only had 4 in 04? Or Myers will end up with a 4.00 ERA b/c his career numbers are bad? Of course not.
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Postby klvrdude » Thu May 26, 2005 2:34 pm

Yoda wrote:
klvrdude wrote:I think its very reasonable to say "Look at Bernero's career stats". Do you really believe that his career 5.56 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over 340 IP is irrelavent?


It is completely irrelevant at this point. He's never shown the control or the command he has right now.

Do you think it's fair to say Roberts won't hit another HR for the rest of the season b/c he only had 4 in 04? Or Myers will end up with a 4.00 ERA b/c his career numbers are bad? Of course not.


Applying that same logic you must also believe that Helton will only have 18 HR with a sub .300 BA and Beltran will only have 4 SB at the end of the season, even though they have career numbers that would suggest otherwise.

Certainly there are those players each year with breakout seasons, but do you really want to use that label for Bernero? Usually those players aren't turning 29 y/o and have 5 horrific train-wreck seasons on their resume.

I concur with your thoughts on Kip Wells, but Bernero? You just lost some points in my book. You may need to go back to the swamp to re-align with the force.
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Postby stumpak » Thu May 26, 2005 2:51 pm

I am not going to sit here and tell you that Bernero is the second coming of Goose Gossage, but you have to remember that he has been a starter for almost all of his professional career and the few relief stints he has had have been with Colorado. He bombed as an MLB starter but did all right in the minors, always have a 7-9 K/9 rate. If the past few seasons have taught us anything it is that being a crappy starter does not mean that a guy cannot be an elite closer. Look at Nathan's numbers before he was moved the pen, they are even worse than Bernero's. Not to mention guys like Gagne and Isringhausen, who failed as starters and might have had equally ugly pre-closer numbers if they had spent that much time in Colorado.

I am not saying that Bernero is going to be great or even decent, I am just saying that he has been the sharpest out of the Brave's pen this year and that history shows that his prior struggles are not a good reason to write him off completely.
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Postby West » Thu May 26, 2005 4:01 pm

klvrdude wrote:Applying that same logic you must also believe that Helton will only have 18 HR with a sub .300 BA and Beltran will only have 4 SB at the end of the season, even though they have career numbers that would suggest otherwise.


You have to look at everything when evaluating a baseball player. You've got to consider current trends as well as historical. Just because Roberts is killing the ball now, doesn't mean he's going to hit 45 home runs. But he's also not going to hit .260 with 2 home runs for the rest of the season. Bernero has experienced a complete turnaround this season. Will it continue? I think Leo Mazzone has played a huge part in this, and I expect him to put up decent numbers this season. I don't know if it will be in the closer role though.

Certainly there are those players each year with breakout seasons, but do you really want to use that label for Bernero? Usually those players aren't turning 29 y/o and have 5 horrific train-wreck seasons on their resume.


Actually, research has shown that pitchers will generally enjoy peak performance from 29-31 years old. Not that Bernero's career stats would indicate the type of performance he's enjoyed, but 29 years old is the age when most pitchers will have a career year. Just like the 27 year old rule for batters.

Overall I think that it's definitely a CBC in Atlanta, with Kolb and Reitsma as the two guys with best chances. I don't know why Bernero was touted so highly in the last week, and then hardly given a chance. Admittedly, he did blow his one chance to prove himself the other day.
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Postby Dawgpound 1613 » Thu May 26, 2005 4:21 pm

thehat wrote:I agree the Braves would like it to be Kolb. Unfortunately, he's getting shredded almost every time he shows up, including the most recent "save" he recorded in which he gave up a HR and a triple. Reitsma has a legit shot to claim this gig if he pitches well. That's a big if, obviously, and he may not be up to the task.

And this is coming from a guy who earlier claimed it would take an awful lot for Cox to take the job away from Kolb. One has to be flexible when giving opinions here.

BTW, Kolb appears to have lost faith in what got him into the spotlight in the first place (the sinker) and is now trying to power the ball past hitters, which is a return to his old pre-Brewer days. And he wasn't very successful as a heat thrower.


I agree with this. I don't think the Braves traded Capellan for a guy they would like to have end up in MR. They think he has the stuff to close, but isn't doing so as of now. By putting him in MR, they give him the chance to work things out.

As for the interim, I honestly think Reitsma. Cox seems to like him and seemed to give him the chances last year when Smoltz was unavailable. I also think he prefers him in the set-up role, such that when/if Kolb is pitching well, he'll take the job back.

As for Bernero, he is a reclamation project. What he's done in the past can't be taken as gospel. Look at Wright last year. While he may end up with the job, I only think it happens if Reitsma fails and Kolb is still struggling. But then I think you also have to see if Sosa or Grybowski (sp?) gets thrown in the mix as well.

All in all, I would assume Reitsma in the short term, but that Kolb will regain the job once (if) he regains his control and stops walking so many people.
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