I don't really take into account that period where he came back for a week or two, he wasn't really himself, and the boos were (funny enough) too much for him.
If he kept on the pace that brought him through July, I think it is entirely possible that he could have reached 30.
I agree with that 110%. In any case, our whole 30 HR bet was off as soon as Raffy tested positive for steroids. That was a variable none of us could have expected. It's not like Raffy, unlike Sosa or McGwire, looked like a juiced-up monster. And with his flat-out denial before Congress, that made the scenario even more unlikely.
But you can't say that Raffy isn't a 30-HR guy by viture of this disaster of a season he has. 12 more home runs would have been pretty easy for him.