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Rafael Palmeiro - Anybody notice he's getting hot?

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Postby Laean » Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:52 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:In 2002, he hit .282 against lefties.....that's the decline. He's gone from a .270-.280 hitter against lefties (career average of .278) to hitting .189 and .221 against them. FWIW, age related decline does not happen in a pure linear trend.

i think you missed my main point from my last post. i really can't give less damn about palmeiro. if you want to think he's not good, then fine. i just wanted to add one thing to the discussion that you were already having with others, which is that past history is relevant. and right now, you're proving me right by using palmeiro's recent avg (2002) as well as his career avg - which isn't even "RECENT" history.

His first half performance this year is not significantly different from last year.

2 more homers, .30 points higher on avg. but yeah, you're right, that's not "significantly" higher. hence i said, small.

Neither is his typical second half performance different from his typical first half performance in any significant way.

are you kidding me? i specifically said for the past 4 seasons (his "RECENT" history), not for his career. go check the #s.

Of course, no one knows for sure what will happen...but the past baseball history shows that players Palmeiro's age tend to trend downward in performance. So, if you are making predictions, it's not like you don't have past history upon which to base that prediction.

huh? so you are saying past baseball history DOES matter? if that's what you're saying we have no issue to discuss here. the one and ONLY reason why i ever got involved in this thread was because you wrote:

"I don't give a rat's ass what Palmeiro did in the past. What matters is his likely performance in the future. And on that measure, he's no better than Molina."

and you also wrote:

"You pick players based on their future performance, not their past performance. Fantasy ball doesn't give you credit for the HRs Palmeiro hit in 1996. So, Palmeiro's HoF status based on past performance is totally irrelevant to the discussion of who to pick. What is relevant is a player's future performance. And, on that measure, fantasy players should understand that, taking into account position, age, etc, Molina is a better pick."

i only got involved because i wanted to state that what palmeiro did in the past should matter in evaluating him, and that because palmeiro has history while molina doesn't, you can't compare the two. seems like now you're saying the same thing.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:30 pm

Actually, Molina has a history, too. It's just that his history is in the minor leagues. However, as Bill James showed two decades ago, minor league statistics, appropriately considered in context, are just as predictive as major league stats.

So, your original point, that we should pay more attention to a hot streak of Palmeiro than one of a player like Molina is not one I agree because Palmeiro's history makes it more likely he will sustain it is not one I agree with. My position has never been that past history does not matter, but that it matters only in so far as it helps predict future performance. Since data beyond about 3 years offers little additional predictive value, there is just as much necessary information on whether or not Molina will sustain a streak as whether or not Palmeiro will. Abd factoring in all the relevant data--past performance, age, etc., there's still no reason to believe Palmeiro--or a player like him--is more likely to sustain a hit streak than Molina--or a player like him.
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Postby Laean » Sun Jul 24, 2005 4:54 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Actually, Molina has a history, too. It's just that his history is in the minor leagues. However, as Bill James showed two decades ago, minor league statistics, appropriately considered in context, are just as predictive as major league stats.

still doesn't change the fact that past history is relevant, which was the main point i was trying to make. in case you still haven't got it yet, my main goal hasn' been to make claims about palmeiro and molina specifically; i've been trying to make a general claim about fantasy sports here.

So, your original point, that we should pay more attention to a hot streak of Palmeiro than one of a player like Molina is not one I agree because Palmeiro's history makes it more likely he will sustain it is not one I agree with.

my MAIN ORIGINAL point was a general one about past history's relevance in predicting future #s in fantasy baseball, not anything about palmeiro and molina specifically. i did use them as an example, but only because that was what was already being used in this thread.

My position has never been that past history does not matter, but that it matters only in so far as it helps predict future performance.

did you read what you wrote before?

i don't give a rat's ass what Palmeiro did in the past. What matters is his likely performance in the future.

if you believe that past history matters in helping to predict future performance, why would you say that you don't give a "rat's ass" what palmeiro did in the past?

You pick players based on their future performance, not their past performance. Fantasy ball doesn't give you credit for the HRs Palmeiro hit in 1996. So, Palmeiro's HoF status based on past performance is totally irrelevant to the discussion of who to pick. What is relevant is a player's future performance ....

that sure doesn't sound like you're saying past history matters in that it helps to predict the future to me. that makes it sound like you're saying there's no link between past history and predicting future performance. it is true that fantasy ball doesn't give you points for homers from past seasons, but those #s from the recent past seasons are a factor in predicting future #s, and are thus most certainly not irrelevant.

"HoF status" = based on past history/performance. "who to pick" = based on future prediction. your words: "Palmeiro's HoF status based on past performance is totally irrelevant to the discussion of who to pick." seems pretty clear to me that you're not saying that it matters.


Since data beyond about 3 years offers little additional predictive value, there is just as much necessary information on whether or not Molina will sustain a streak as whether or not Palmeiro will.

i already said i agree with you that you're right that only "RECENT" history is relevant, though whether the definition of "RECENT" is 2 years b4 or 3 or whatnot is unclear. in this case, you yourself are barely looking at the past 1 (2004) and a 1/2 (2003 road games) seasons from palmeiro, not "data" within "3 years."

Abd factoring in all the relevant data--past performance, age, etc., there's still no reason to believe Palmeiro--or a player like him--is more likely to sustain a hit streak than Molina--or a player like him.

guess we'll just have to agree to disagree here. i think, in general, a player like palmeiro is more likely to sustain a hit streak than a player like molina.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:23 am

No, if you look at Palmeiro's last three seasons, he's had one good one (2002) and that was the one that is most distant in the past. I'm not ignoring it, but it simply deserves significantly less weight than his more recent performances.

In general, I would question the idea that a hot streak by a good young player is less likely to be sustained than a hot streak by a 40 year old player who has been in decline for 2 years, even if that 40 year old is a Hall of Famer.

More specificially, Palmeiro did not sustain his hot streak longer than Molina.
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Postby kcs261 » Sun Jul 24, 2005 11:09 am

He did not sustain his hot streak longer than Molina? Hahaha. The guy is batting .284, with 17 HRs, 55 RBIs, and a K/BB ratio of 36/36.

Yeah, the guy has been terrible. Hahaha...

:-t
Last edited by kcs261 on Sun Jul 24, 2005 2:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Laean » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:21 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:No, if you look at Palmeiro's last three seasons, he's had one good one (2002) and that was the one that is most distant in the past. I'm not ignoring it, but it simply deserves significantly less weight than his more recent performances.

fair enough, but i disagree with how little weight you're giving it.

In general, I would question the idea that a hot streak by a good young player is less likely to be sustained than a hot streak by a 40 year old player who has been in decline for 2 years, even if that 40 year old is a Hall of Famer.

i flat out disagree here again.

More specificially, Palmeiro did not sustain his hot streak longer than Molina.

i already agreed with you that technically palmeiro did not sustain his streak longer, but that he started another one.
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Postby kcs261 » Wed Jul 27, 2005 2:39 pm

Publications like Fanball and other are finally starting to see it my way: :-)

Trend: Raffy Raking It
Last year was the first season since 1994 that Rafael Palmeiro didn't deliver at least 38 homers and at least 104 runs batted in—so of course, at age 40, most fantasy folks were ready to write Raffy off. But a funny thing happened right around the time Palmeiro notched his 3,000th hit: it occurred to him that he could still play. Palmeiro has hit .313 in July—.378 since the All-Star break—and banged at least five homers each months since a cold April. Raffy has hit an average of 25 points better after the break over the past three seasons, and his slugging percentage during that span is almost 40 points higher in the second half of the season. It appears he's headed for another strong finish—not just to the season, but to his Hall-of-Fame career as well.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Aug 04, 2005 8:03 pm

And I wonder if you could give us an update on what those mags are saying now?
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Postby superfly » Thu Aug 04, 2005 8:37 pm

Well we know why he got hot now!!!
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Sep 23, 2005 4:49 pm

kcs261 wrote:Publications like Fanball and other are finally starting to see it my way: :-)

Trend: Raffy Raking It
Last year was the first season since 1994 that Rafael Palmeiro didn't deliver at least 38 homers and at least 104 runs batted in—so of course, at age 40, most fantasy folks were ready to write Raffy off. But a funny thing happened right around the time Palmeiro notched his 3,000th hit: it occurred to him that he could still play. Palmeiro has hit .313 in July—.378 since the All-Star break—and banged at least five homers each months since a cold April. Raffy has hit an average of 25 points better after the break over the past three seasons, and his slugging percentage during that span is almost 40 points higher in the second half of the season. It appears he's headed for another strong finish—not just to the season, but to his Hall-of-Fame career as well.


And now, is there anyone seeing it your way?

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A great end to a "Hall of Fame" career.

Plus he came nowhere near 30 HRs.
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