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Rafael Palmeiro - Anybody notice he's getting hot?

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Rafael Palmeiro - Anybody notice he's getting hot?

Postby kcs261 » Wed May 25, 2005 9:40 pm

I know 1st base is a deep position. Heck, I've got Helton, Johnson, and the Big Hurt on the DL. So I don't even have a spot for him. But just when everybody thought he was completely done, Palmeiro has been heating up the last few weeks. His average is going to be .260-.270 tops. But he's starting to hit the long ball again and it wouldn't surprise me if he hit 30. So, in a league where K/BB is a category, I don't know if he's all done...
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed May 25, 2005 10:11 pm

Yeah, right.

He's hit 4 HRs in 1/4 of the season and has just 10 XBH all year.

He can't hit lefties for squat anymore .094/.118/.125/.243

He's purely a platoon lefty, and his chances of hitting 30 HRs are only slightly higher than mine are.
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Postby NZF » Wed May 25, 2005 10:23 pm

Exactly what I said at the beginning of last season.

He should have retired in 2003, it's sad to see great hitters play past their use by date.

Edgar Martinez did it in 2004 as well.
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Postby kcs261 » Wed May 25, 2005 11:14 pm

As opposed to debating what we all think, I'll just let the numbers speak for themselves:

In Palmeiro's last 39 ABs, he's been hitting .358 with 2 doubles, 3 HRs, 9 RBIs, and 9 BBs to 6 Ks.

I'd call that a hot streak.
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Postby NZF » Thu May 26, 2005 1:08 am

Yadier Molina is hitting over .500 with 9 RBI's and a HR in his last 6 games. Are you going to grab him as your catcher? A 9 game hot streak really means very little for a well past his prime 1B.
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Postby thehat » Thu May 26, 2005 1:15 am

Palmeiro's value is in direct correlation to the depth of your league. In a shallow league, he's useless, hot or not.

But in deep leagues, say 14+teams, where virtually every team has need to manuever with the last two or three roster spots, a warm Palmeiro is definitely worth at least a temp grab. Grabbing hot players and riding them till they cool off is a strategy I've maintained in these leagues for years. And that said, I grabbed Palmeiro out of the FA pool about a week ago and have enjoyed some nice production from him since. If he goes cold, away he goes and I'll find someone else. But in the meantime, I'm picking up some nice numbers.
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Postby Fireball Express » Thu May 26, 2005 2:42 am

I grabbed him as a short term solution since Vlad got hurt. I needed another source of power, at least for this week. So on Wed he takes the lefty deep. So far he's helping. At the first sign of cooling off, he will probably cast aside.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu May 26, 2005 3:57 am

If I thought it was possible to predict when hot streaks begin and end, I'd agree with that strategy.
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Postby thehat » Thu May 26, 2005 6:08 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:If I thought it was possible to predict when hot streaks begin and end, I'd agree with that strategy.


Of course it's possible. Certainly it's not infallible, but what you want to look for is a veteran type who has been showing signs of coming to life, and has some favorable matchups ahead. Palmeiro was a perfect example. He was starting to hit a little, getting some walks, and had series coming up with KC, Philly and Seattle, with the last two series are friendly Camden.

D Ward is one of the most notable streak hitters around, and he's frequently in the FA pool even in deep leagues. He's just gone through a hot run and is now seemingly cooling down, so he's likely to be unowned within the next few days is plenty of leagues. Wait for him to string together a couple of decent games, and then grab him if he's around.

There are guys available in almost every league who fit this criteria. You just have to learn to recognize the signals.
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Postby NZF » Thu May 26, 2005 6:35 am

I also make a habit of grabbing guys that are hot but generally just for spot starting unless I've got a particular weakness in a certain position or an injury.

I grabbed Raffy in my 16 team OBP league last Monday for a spot start when most of my roster were sitting. The reason I grabbed him was because he had a decent match-up and was showing some signs of life in the previous few days. Nothing more, nothing less.

He went back to the WW on Tuesday and remains there.

Even in a 16 team league he has very limited use. Sure this hot streak may continue for another week or two but it's unlikely. The guy has been in steady decline since 2002 (dramatic since 2004) and that was disguised somewhat from playing in a very favourable hitting ballpark in Texas.

Raffy's days of consistently helping a fantasy roster in even a deep league are long gone.
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