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Another look at DIPS (article)

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Postby KolbSaves » Wed May 25, 2005 5:09 pm

reiser wrote:
ocmusicjunkie wrote:Very good read. Again, I think this proves what many of us already believe. And again, I bet some people are going to disagree and offer illogical reasoning for doing so. I'm afraid it's too complex for some of the non-believers to read. ;-)


that's a strikingly ignorant statement.

I think Tom Tippett pretty much opened and shut the "pitcher cannot control BABIP" argument pretty well.
http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/ipavg2.htm


Here's what the author of the original article (at the top of the thread) had to say about Tippett's article when I asked him.

Hi Chris,

Thanks for reading the article, and I'm glad you enjoyed it. :-)

Yes, I have read the Tippett article. . In fact, I discuss it briefly at the end of the article. I think Tom's article is quite interesting, and it fits perfectly with my findings. We both find that pitchers have some consistent impact over balls in play over time. However, I go a little bit further to show that much of that control is captured in the DIPS metrics. I think many people view Tom's article as an argument against DIPS. I've read it several times, and I seem to have the opposite impression. He clearly believes in a weak-form DIPS as does McCracken. The question is, why do we observe pitchers having some control over balls in play over their careers AND see no correlation in BABIP after including DIPS components in the analysis? Well, I think my study answers that.

JC
"If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants."
-Isaac Newton
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Postby Q » Wed May 25, 2005 5:49 pm

DIPS is the single most important strategy to my fantasy baseball success. It is so easy to see which pitchers are getting lucky and which are getting unlucky. It also helps to see which pitchers are gaining skills and which are losing them, which will keep up their current paces and which will not. Using all of this information alone can help so much when it comes to drafting, trading and picking up free agents.

I have wrote several articles about this strategy on http://www.diamondgurus.com and plan on continuing to do a overall league analysis on pitchers each month to see pitchers that standout in either good or bad ways using DIPS. I also plan to write an article on how closers and Greg Maddux have managed to defy the logic enough to be noticed.

I do NOT support this as a category simply because of how much it helps for it not to be. When ERA and WHIP are the categories instead then it gives a huge advantage to all players who use the DIPS strategy. Using DIPS is the way to determine ERA and WHIP but it is most advantageous for DIPS users for it not to be a category because then all players would be forced to look at it.
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