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Another look at DIPS (article)

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Another look at DIPS (article)

Postby KolbSaves » Tue May 24, 2005 6:42 pm

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... -at-dips1/

Just got there. Tell me what you think of it.
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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Tue May 24, 2005 6:53 pm

Very good read. Again, I think this proves what many of us already believe. And again, I bet some people are going to disagree and offer illogical reasoning for doing so. I'm afraid it's too complex for some of the non-believers to read. ;-)
Help please:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1086524#1086524


Harden- 2.15 ERA, 7.61 K/9
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[b]Lets go Rich![/b]
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Postby KolbSaves » Tue May 24, 2005 6:54 pm

Conclusion
In summary, DIPS is right. Knowing DIPS can tell you more about a pitcher's future performance than his previous ERA. While pitchers may have some ability to prevent hits on balls in play, the effect is small. And any effect a pitcher does have is reflected within DIPS metrics. Other studies have shown that pitchers do seem to be able to influence certain hit-types, such as ground balls, fly balls, and line drives, but the effect of these tendencies on run-prevention is ambiguous. And it may be that these tendencies may be correlated with DIPS. As new hit-type data comes in this year to The Hardball Times, hopefully, the impact of hit-type on run prevention will become clearer.


Interesting.
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Postby RJCarrot » Tue May 24, 2005 6:54 pm

This is exactly what happens when you break down a physical game like baseball into a statistical game of fantasy baseball.

Some dork goes and turns it into a formula...

My brain hurts, what ever happened to grunting and saying "my pitcher done throwed good."
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Postby nuggets » Tue May 24, 2005 6:59 pm

RJCarrot wrote:This is exactly what happens when you break down a physical game like baseball into a statistical game of fantasy baseball.

Some dork goes and turns it into a formula...

My brain hurts, what ever happened to grunting and saying "my pitcher done throwed good."


Wow got some anger issues (Bell)

I've noticed that one is not going to make friends here calling the people who like stats "statheads" or "dorks" for that matter. That article is pretty technical so I can see why you wouldn't want to understand it.
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Postby reiser » Tue May 24, 2005 7:01 pm

ocmusicjunkie wrote:Very good read. Again, I think this proves what many of us already believe. And again, I bet some people are going to disagree and offer illogical reasoning for doing so. I'm afraid it's too complex for some of the non-believers to read. ;-)


that's a strikingly ignorant statement.

I think Tom Tippett pretty much opened and shut the "pitcher cannot control BABIP" argument pretty well.
http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/ipavg2.htm
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Postby jjigglers » Tue May 24, 2005 7:01 pm

The article was very interesting, but the one thing that should be noted about DIPS is that it does exactly what the name says, it rates the pitcher independent of his defense. Unfortunately, pitchers cannot be independent of their defenses, so this stat doesnt help us as much as fantasy owners as some think.

I'm all for including it as a stat in fantasy instead of ERA.
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Postby KolbSaves » Tue May 24, 2005 7:04 pm

jjigglers wrote:The article was very interesting, but the one thing that should be noted about DIPS is that it does exactly what the name says, it rates the pitcher independent of his defense. Unfortunately, pitchers cannot be independent of their defenses, so this stat doesnt help us as much as fantasy owners as some think.

I'm all for including it as a stat in fantasy instead of ERA.

It's good for predictive values with changing defensive lineups/parks though. Over the long run defensive luck does somewhat even out as well, although bad fielders will continue to be bad fielders.
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Postby nuggets » Tue May 24, 2005 7:05 pm

jjigglers wrote:I'm all for including it as a stat in fantasy instead of ERA.


No. Just think of applying that pricipal to other positions. And the sinkerball/knuckleball aspect. What a mess. Great for a private league but a mess for a standardization across the board.
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Postby strong » Tue May 24, 2005 7:05 pm

jjigglers wrote:The article was very interesting, but the one thing that should be noted about DIPS is that it does exactly what the name says, it rates the pitcher independent of his defense. Unfortunately, pitchers cannot be independent of their defenses, so this stat doesnt help us as much as fantasy owners as some think.


Well said.
As in all fantasy sports: Best talent does not make for the best fantasy player. Especially when concerned with pitchers...
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