Is Roberts the real deal? Discuss

[Frances The Mute]

Q, thats the strongest argument I've heard all year for a possible Brian roberts "decline" and I've heard a bunch of them. Real impressive the stats you find and I'm a pretty strong believer of hit rates, at least from a pitching perspective. From what I've learned about hit rates, hitters have different rates as opposed to pitchers who all basically have the same (.30).

If Roberts increase in productivity this year is due to his spaceage contact lens, which he hasnt had the last two years, then maybe you wouldn't expect that rate to come back down to .35? Rather to stay at .40+? And he is getting better pitches consistently with that lineup behind him is he not? I'm thinking theres a few factors here that will prevent that hit rate from returning to soemthign hes ahd the past two years.

[Q]

Here is my argument for Roberts not being able to have a hit rate of .40 or higher. Lets list some current players who have had career hit rates close to or around .40 (with a large enough sample size obviously). Bobby Abreu, Jim Edmonds, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Todd Helton (Helped by Coors), and Barry Bonds (at least since 2001 but we all know he is a different hitter since, it was around .34 before). No Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez dont make the list at .38 each.

What do all these players have in common? They are all big power hitters that mash the ball. The argument that Roberts speed could bring it up to that level doesnt hold any water. Though his speed will bring it up a bit, the way Ichiro has managed a .37, its not going to help it all that much.

Of course some players that aren't mashers and just other players in general have had single seasons above .40 and it is possible there is nothing to suggest that Roberts should keep up that rate for the rest of the year. His makeup and skills compare more to a hitter that will put up about .35 for the rest of the year.

[Frances The Mute]

I get what your saying Q, but about Roberts makeup and skill set -- I think its difficult to use his makeup and skill set from last year as a baseline. Roberts has hit what like 5 hrs in his two pro years and not many in the minors. This year whats he have like 12? in 1/4 of a year.

At what point do you give Roberts the Barry Bonds exception -- that hes just changed (contacts+ blossoming skills) and has a new better hit rate.

Curiously, what kind of players have maintained hit rates this high above their norm for this long into a season just to have it slide back down?