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Is Roberts the real deal? Discuss

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Postby Frances The Mute » Mon May 23, 2005 12:35 pm

Roberts is for real. One of only a few players that could reasonably go 30-30 and its too early to rule out 40-40.

Roberts obviously isnt the same player as last year and now that this has lasted through May it would be silly to expect him to "revert" back to last years numbers. He's been an incrdible hitter still at .370 or so and leading the majors in OPS.

Of all the factors that could be contributing to Roberts emergence, what exactly do people think is gonna change so severely that will cause Roberts output to drop?

Orioles deathrow lineup is gonna ensure that Roberts CONTINUES to get great pitches to hit, in a friendly ballpark, age 27, 3rd year in majors, league leading doubles developed into hrs, good gb/fb ratio, spaceage cheating contact lenses, creatine, offseason workout animal.

My biggest concern about roberts is if mlb bans those contacts, but then we're talking about mlb here.
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Postby Yoda » Mon May 23, 2005 12:45 pm

hybrid wrote:He has been slowing down, except for his AVG. and OBP%. He had such an amazing April though that you don't notice.

April: 23 games 95 AB's - 21 runs - 8 hr's - 26 rbi - 10 sb's

May: 20 games 83 AB's 15 runs - 3 hr's - 7 rbi's - 3 sb's


True... but he has maintained an OPS of well over 1.000 for both months. He's hit more 2B in May. I've seen him almost hit a couple out that resulted in 2Bs.

Still too early to tell what he will do for the balance of the season. 20 HR is a no brainer as long as he keeps his G/F down. My best guess is that he will hit 20+ HR, 35 SB with a .325 AVG.
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Postby afromangettindrunk » Mon May 23, 2005 2:42 pm

Brian Roberts, not Dave Roberts.
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Postby Q » Mon May 23, 2005 3:10 pm

Well what do you consider to be the real deal? Will he put up these kind of numbers for the rest of the year? Heck no! Will he be a valuable fantasy player from here on out? You bet ya!

I see him finishing the year with about a .310-.320 batting average (most of that achieved during the first two months so about .290 the rest of the way), 20-25 home runs (so about 10 the rest of the way) and aroun 40 steals. He will have better than normal RBI and R production obviously but he will finish more around 80 RBI and 120 R.

I'm actually disappointed that I didnt see his power coming. As a speedy second basemen I think I overlooked his power potential. A player's doubles total is a great indicator of potential power as most doubles are just a few feet from being home runs and young players gain more power as they improve towards their prime. Roberts had 50 doubles last year and just 4 home runs. It should have been expected that he would improve his hitting skills and probably get a little stronger as he is about to enter his prime at 27 so a reasonable prediction would have been 15 home runs. Obviously with his hot start he will surpass that but for the last 2/3 (actually a bit more) of the season he will hit a few more than 10 home runs, Which will equal 20-25 for the season.

The rise is batting average is expected with the rise in plate discipline, power index and speed index. Since he is getting on base more the stolen base totals are also legitimate.

He is the "Real Thing" if your projections are conservative enough.
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Postby Yoda » Mon May 23, 2005 3:28 pm

Q wrote:Well what do you consider to be the real deal? Will he put up these kind of numbers for the rest of the year? Heck no! Will he be a valuable fantasy player from here on out? You bet ya!

I see him finishing the year with about a .310-.320 batting average (most of that achieved during the first two months so about .290 the rest of the way), 20-25 home runs (so about 10 the rest of the way) and aroun 40 steals. He will have better than normal RBI and R production obviously but he will finish more around 80 RBI and 120 R.

I'm actually disappointed that I didnt see his power coming. As a speedy second basemen I think I overlooked his power potential. A player's doubles total is a great indicator of potential power as most doubles are just a few feet from being home runs and young players gain more power as they improve towards their prime. Roberts had 50 doubles last year and just 4 home runs. It should have been expected that he would improve his hitting skills and probably get a little stronger as he is about to enter his prime at 27 so a reasonable prediction would have been 15 home runs. Obviously with his hot start he will surpass that but for the last 2/3 (actually a bit more) of the season he will hit a few more than 10 home runs, Which will equal 20-25 for the season.

The rise is batting average is expected with the rise in plate discipline, power index and speed index. Since he is getting on base more the stolen base totals are also legitimate.

He is the "Real Thing" if your projections are conservative enough.


I have a feeling that he will end up with a much higher BA. Based on my calculations, if he hits .300 for the rest of the season, he will wind up with .320. If he keeps up his plate discipline and contact rate, he will bat much higher, more in the .330-340 range and realistically challenge for the batting title.

The big thing is, Roberts is having one of those career type years so it's tough to discount him too much.
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Postby Q » Mon May 23, 2005 3:45 pm

The reason that I believe that Roberts will hit .290 for the rest of the season is a combination of saber metric analysis.

Actually his plate discipline is not all that much better than it has been in his career. He is actually striking out at a higher rate (16% of the time compared to 13% and 15% the previous two years) than normal. His K-BB rate though is about a tenth higher of a point than the previous year which would suggest a higher hit rate, which is rate of balls in play that become hits.

Roberts has got hits on 44.7% of balls that he has hit into play so far this year. In 2004 he only got hits on 32.1% and 2003 30.8%. This is his hit rate for the year. There is no way that he keeps this up since this is Manny Ramirez territory and hit rate depends on how hard you hit the ball and a little bit on speed (beating out infield hits).

To project Robert's hit rate for the rest of the year we'll start at his 32.1% from last year. Adjust it accordingly for the increase in power index, speed index and slight increase in plate discipline and I would believe it will be about 35% for the rest of the year. That is still a good hit rate.

To bad .315 for the year that means he must get 138 hits in his projected 472 at bats remaining. Using his current strikeout rate he will strikeout 74 more times. That means that he has to get 138 hits of 398 balls in play, which comes out to a hit rate of 34.7%. That's very close to 35%, my projection, and if my guess is correct then he will be around .310-.320.
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Postby stumpak » Mon May 23, 2005 4:35 pm

Who cares how his statline looks at the end of the season? That is bad metric to use in mid-season. What should inform people's decisions is how he will do from this point forward and I would bet the house on Soriano outperforming him from May 23 until October 1. He is not going to be a bust in the sense that he will turn into Junior Spivey of something like that, but he is playing out of his mind right now and will not keep it up. I would take Soriano in a straight up trade in a heartbeat.
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Postby Yoda » Mon May 23, 2005 4:39 pm

Q wrote:The reason that I believe that Roberts will hit .290 for the rest of the season is a combination of saber metric analysis.

Actually his plate discipline is not all that much better than it has been in his career. He is actually striking out at a higher rate (16% of the time compared to 13% and 15% the previous two years) than normal. His K-BB rate though is about a tenth higher of a point than the previous year which would suggest a higher hit rate, which is rate of balls in play that become hits.

Roberts has got hits on 44.7% of balls that he has hit into play so far this year. In 2004 he only got hits on 32.1% and 2003 30.8%. This is his hit rate for the year. There is no way that he keeps this up since this is Manny Ramirez territory and hit rate depends on how hard you hit the ball and a little bit on speed (beating out infield hits).

To project Robert's hit rate for the rest of the year we'll start at his 32.1% from last year. Adjust it accordingly for the increase in power index, speed index and slight increase in plate discipline and I would believe it will be about 35% for the rest of the year. That is still a good hit rate.

To bad .315 for the year that means he must get 138 hits in his projected 472 at bats remaining. Using his current strikeout rate he will strikeout 74 more times. That means that he has to get 138 hits of 398 balls in play, which comes out to a hit rate of 34.7%. That's very close to 35%, my projection, and if my guess is correct then he will be around .310-.320.


Yeah I didn't have his hit rate to work with but if it is that high, then I agree with you that his average SHOULD come down quite a bit.

Good stuff Q. Where do you get these numbers from? These are the numbers that I work with when I draft players but I don't want to pay for them during the season. :-D
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Postby Yoda » Mon May 23, 2005 4:43 pm

stumpak wrote:Who cares how his statline looks at the end of the season? That is bad metric to use in mid-season. What should inform people's decisions is how he will do from this point forward and I would bet the house on Soriano outperforming him from May 23 until October 1. He is not going to be a bust in the sense that he will turn into Junior Spivey of something like that, but he is playing out of his mind right now and will not keep it up. I would take Soriano in a straight up trade in a heartbeat.


I agree. But the main point is, part of what he ends up is tied to how he performs from here til the end.

There is a chance that he will slow down significantly. I am also not sure if I would trade Robets straight up for Soriano. Soriano will almost definitely get traded this season. Who knows where he will end up?

Roberts will end up with more runs, more SBs and a higher AVG. It will be close. But I usually go with the proven player so I would probably go with Soriano.
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Postby Q » Mon May 23, 2005 4:57 pm

Yoda, I simply do the calculations on my own. Ive created huge excel files for both hitting and pitching. Each have every meaningful hitter's and pitcher's career statistics and pasted in formula's that I did on my own in order to do all necessary saber metric analysis. If you would like me to send you these files email me at mailto:brad@diamondgurus.com and I would be more than happy to but keep in mind that you'll have to continue to update them on your own from then on.

As for Soriano vs Roberts I would have to say that Soriano will be more valuable for the rest of the year but not by much. First of all I wouldn't worry too much about Soriano getting traded. Yes he is in a good offense and hits in a good home run park but it isnt that great of a batting average park and Texas does not let him steal as much as he can. If he gets traded to a number of other teams his stolen base totals could go up quite a bit thus actually increasing his value. Second is the comparision between the two. Roberts will have a slightly better batting average from now on than Soriano and score probably 20 more runs from now on. Soriano makes up for the 20 runs with 20 more RBI. Roberts will probably steal 10 more bases but Soriano will hit 15-20 more home runs. It's close but I'll take Soriano, especially for the future.
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