stumpak wrote:Do the math: if Fuentes pitches 40 innings for the rest of the year with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP, that has hardly any impact on your ratios whatsoever assuming 1000-1500 innings pitches. And any points you lose there would probably be offset by points gained by the higher than average K rate he will have over those 40 innings (i.e., say he gets 40Ks vs. the 20-25 that would provided by the low tier SP you would probably otherwise use the innings on. And oh yeah, then there are the 20+ saves he will get you if he keeps his job. In a typical roto league, this can easily get you 5 points if you are around the middle of the pack in saves.
The bottom line is that it is well worth to take a gamble on a questionable closer who has a full time job even if you think he will get blown up periodically and end the season with crummy ratios, expecially if he has a good K rate.
Three problems I see with that strategy:
1. The guy pitches in Coors Field. His "blowups" might be 3-5 runs in a game, where as a "blowup" for say, Guardado, or many other mid tier closers, is 1-2 runs. The park effect can really come into play with a Rockies closer.
2. Is he REALLY gonna get many saves? My guess is no. That team isnt very good, and they dont play many close games.
3. Risk vs. Reward. I'm just not sure the 5.00 era 1.40 WHIP thing is as negligible as you say it would be. A factor would be his other closers, are they any good? Like I said earlier, if he is desperate for saves, and not counting on more than 15 or so, go for it, but you do so at the potential peril of other peripheral stats, if they are figured into his league. Maybe its a points league, who knows.
The reason I'm looking is an interesting one: I drafted Foulke, Guardado and Takatsu. I happened into Brazoban. I'm currently leading in saves, and like that feeling. However, it looks like Brazoban and Takatsu are on the outs. So, to keep my lead in a 14 team 5x5, I'll need saves from somewhere. Fuentes is sitting there on the WW, and I'm not sure whether or not to grab him.
Sadly, this conversation has only worked to intensify my uncertainty.
BOTTOM LINE QUESTION: HOW MANY SAVES WILL HE GET!!!! I'd take him if 20 saves is a good possibility. Anyone think 20 saves is really feasible?
The Rockies are horrible, but absent unmitigated failure, Fuentes should still land 20 saves.
What difference does it make if someone gets blown up for 5 runs in an inning or 2 runs? The state to take into account is expected ERA from now until October 1.
Obviously there are situations where one should eschew a crappy closer. But the point I am making is that a poor performing closer still generally has positive value so long as he is getting 95%+ of the save opportunities.
A case in point is Herges from last year. When everyone was complaing about his 5.00+ ERA, he was still bringing in tons of saves. I did a little math. I don't remember the particualars, but I spent something like 40 innings on Herges from April until I dropped him after the all-star break, and using these 40 innings on Herges vice the average WW replacement SP gained something like 7 points in my roto standings of I am remembering correctly. My WHIP and ERA wnet up a small blip, but only enough to cost me .5 in the standings. So in reality, I am betting that Herges was positive for most people in roto even while he was getting blown up, although there constant posts daily about how he was killing people.
Those are VERY significant differences. Interesting. I'm in the process of picking him up (and dropping Ponson after his wonderful spot start ) but I plan on only using him on the road or when I really need SVs (H2H league).
He is a decent pickup if you need saves. Especially if you can bench him at home. He WILL get save ops. just look at how many saves Chacon eneded up with last year. If you can pick and choose when you start him and have room on your roster for him, I would say he is a for sure pickup.