I don't know about any "slam dunk" case here.
abreu is the better avg hitter. that much is clear.
But Abreu has also had a powerful, but inconsistent bat.
If we take each of their five best seasons, beltran avg's 27.8 hr's, Abreu 25.2. Bobby also has a pair of 20's there, whereas beltran is almost always around 25.
The stolen Bases are telling, as abreu got to 40 for the first time last season, but Beltran broke the barrier twice.
I'd be pretty disappointed with bobby's 20-20 campaign too.
My point in all of this is that I think it is much too close to tell for this year, and I don't think it is cut and dried as carlos has the higher swipe percentage, seems to have a higher swipe ceiling, and has a power ceiling that is at worst similar to bobby. Bobby has the avg, but also is a little older. I think it is too close to call, especially considering we are like 6 weeks in or whatever.