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Beltran in roto -- A glorified Brian Giles?

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Beltran in roto -- A glorified Brian Giles?

Postby This is the year » Sun May 15, 2005 10:34 pm

Those of us who drafted Beltran in rotisserie leagues are undoubtedly kicking ourselves at the lack of steals production. My question is, without said stolen bases, is Beltran basically a glorified Brian Giles-type outfielder (fantasy-speaking, of course!)? Beltran will probably put up a .280-ish average and high 90's in the R and RBI categories, and probably 30-35 homers. Obviously, the SB's are the real X factor in Beltran's worth.

If we assume that Giles's first full year at Petco is a reasonable standard for his current production, are the numbers really very different? Giles in '04:

.284, 97 runs, 23 HR, 94 RBI, 10 SB


These numbers seem pretty comparable to me, with maybe a +10 in home runs for Beltran. Is this a "sell high" situation simply due to Beltran's name recognition? Or should we stand pat hoping for some stolen bases? I know there's been much discussion recently about Beltran's lack of stolen bases, but I thought I would bring this up. Would it be wise to trade him away at this point? Let's hear some discussion.
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Postby myteamsucks » Sun May 15, 2005 10:38 pm

al wrong, expect 110 runs, 110 rbi, and the SB. giles isn't bad though.
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Postby This is the year » Sun May 15, 2005 10:45 pm

Ok, even with a +10 in runs, rbi, and home runs, my question is still whether the true difference between Giles and Beltran's real fantasy value is even close to the large difference in perceived value. I took Beltran as a #3 or #4 pick overall in most leagues, but Giles usually falls to round 8-10. Do the few extra runs and rbis really warrant this difference?
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Postby Eastern Lightning » Sun May 15, 2005 10:45 pm

I'm thinking of trading him for Manny and trying to get some feedback on that over in the trade forum. You gotta think Willie will let him run soon don't you?
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Postby bselig » Sun May 15, 2005 10:49 pm

Nice comparison. Gotta go with Beltran of course, but as far as value goes you have a great point - CB is a huge huge bust if he doesn't get his steals. It's sad to think of him as being on the same level as an over-the-hill Brian Giles, but I suppose that's what it has come to...
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Postby myteamsucks » Sun May 15, 2005 10:52 pm

Ok, even with a +10 in runs, rbi, and home runs, my question is still whether the true difference between Giles and Beltran's real fantasy value is even close to the large difference in perceived value. I took Beltran as a #3 or #4 pick overall in most leagues, but Giles usually falls to round 8-10. Do the few extra runs and rbis really warrant this difference?


yah, i do think 10+ runs and the 10+ rbi and 10+ will make a difference. it may not seem like a lot, but thats what separates 1st round guys from later round guys(althouhg 10th round is quite late to compare them). i do understand your point of beltran and giles with giles being able to produce good numbers from a low draft position.

yes, the steals are rather important when discussing beltran becasue without them, he would just be another so called "giles" or andruw jones. those 35 steals he gets could add 4, 5 points to a teams overall score in a rotoisserie league, briding the gap between coming in the money and just missing the money.


potential also plays a part. i, personally, expected a bigger season from beltran. he's young and learning. giles on the other hand, is on the downtunr of his career and the probability of a creer year is more unlikely.
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Postby Art Vandelay » Mon May 16, 2005 12:29 am

I thought both Beltran and Crawford were vastly overrated going into this season. I would definitely explore trade options. His perceived value is still probably about equal to late first round status, so I'd make some offers and test the waters.
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Postby great gretzky » Mon May 16, 2005 9:44 am

every year, someone labels cb a bust. IF he doesn't get his steals, he will be. But on the other hand, steals come in bunches. If you have faith he will get him, it doesn't matter ultimately when he gets them, as long as he does by the end of the year.
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Postby Drunken Rhino » Mon May 16, 2005 12:10 pm

I'd put B. Giles ahead of CB if he doesn't steal. At least in any format that counts OBP, SLG & K.

Carlos - .353 OBP, .490 SLG & 1K/5.37 AB
B. Giles - .411 OBP, .547 SLG & 1K/7.25 AB
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Mon May 16, 2005 2:45 pm

Art Vandelay wrote:I thought both Beltran and Crawford were vastly overrated going into this season.


As did I.
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