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Podsednik: over/under 100 SB?

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Podsednik over/under 100 SB in 2005?

Over
17
16%
Under
89
84%
 
Total votes : 106

Postby George_Foreman » Sat May 14, 2005 11:09 pm

why do you guys say 80 is the highest? he's at 22 after tonight. he's played in 30 games this year, which puts him at a rate of a little better than 2 every 3 games. the chi-sox have played a total of 37 games after tonight, meaning he's missed 7. if he doesn't miss any more, podsy will finish with 155 games played, putting him at well over 100 on the year, given his current rate of stealing. (the real number is 114).

so why does everyone say 100 is out of the question? do you think he's going to stop walking? because i really don't see why he would stop running.
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Postby Pedantic » Sat May 14, 2005 11:12 pm

I'm saying under seventy. He might be on a torrid pace, but this ain't the 80's.
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Postby Mustangs989 » Sat May 14, 2005 11:13 pm

George_Foreman wrote:why do you guys say 80 is the highest? he's at 22 after tonight. he's played in 30 games this year, which puts him at a rate of a little better than 2 every 3 games. the chi-sox have played a total of 37 games after tonight, meaning he's missed 7. if he doesn't miss any more, podsy will finish with 155 games played, putting him at well over 100 on the year. (the real number is 114).

so why does everyone say 100 is out of the question? do you think he's going to stop walking? because i really don't see why he would stop running.

Basically because I don't see his OBP staying at .380. I'd be surprised if it's over .340 by the end of the year to be honest. His career numbers just don't lead me to believe that he can play this well the whole season.
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Postby George_Foreman » Sat May 14, 2005 11:32 pm

the K/BB ratio doesn't lie. perhaps the Ks will go back to their norm returning his BA to where it normally is, but the fact that he's taking walks seems to indicate a different approach to hitting. if he keeps going to bat with a good eye (ie, not trying to be ichiro ;-) ), i don't see any reason for his OBP to fall back to where it was last year or even below .360.
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Postby Mustangs989 » Sat May 14, 2005 11:47 pm

George_Foreman wrote:the K/BB ratio doesn't lie. perhaps the Ks will go back to their norm returning his BA to where it normally is, but the fact that he's taking walks seems to indicate a different approach to hitting. if he keeps going to bat with a good eye (ie, not trying to be ichiro ;-) ), i don't see any reason for his OBP to fall back to where it was last year or even below .360.

Perhaps he's changed his whole style of hitting, it's a possibility I suppose. However I trust his career BB/K of .6 in the majors and .8 in the minors over his 1 and a half month 2:1 BB/K. Despite this only being his 3rd full year we have to remember he's not a young guy, he's 29.
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Postby quietstorm » Sat May 14, 2005 11:51 pm

I'm gonna pull a Wilbon, here... push.

In all seriousness, though, it'll be under. I suppose his plate discipline could have made major strides this year, but I'm douting it'll continue to be this good.

I'll say 75 SBs, maybe 80. He'll be a roto god, but not nearly so valuable in real baseball.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Sat May 14, 2005 11:55 pm

I have to agree with Mustangs on this one. I can't see any way he keeps his OBP that high.
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Postby tomkatt » Sun May 15, 2005 1:35 am

Pedantic wrote:I'm saying under seventy. He might be on a torrid pace, but this ain't the 80's.


Agreed, it's not like he will be running against Mike Piazza every game.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Sun May 15, 2005 11:15 am

Pods will definately get his share of steals and may even top his 70 from last year. But 100 is wildly optimistic. It's a LONG season and even a slight drop in his OBP and/or his steal attempts per on-base will thwart any run at 100. Players get tired, they get hurt, and/or they lose a half-step and get thrown out more.

Also, it's worth noting that, despite all his steals, he's not crossing home plate too often. He's got more steals than runs! Arguably, this could cut both ways. It could be a sign that he's just been unlucky in that he's been getting lackluster hitting support when he's in scoring position, and that the run totals will jump once his luck turns around. On the other hand, it may be a sign that all his stealing isn't really helping the teams bottom line, and if so the green light might be turned off somewhat. I doubt the team wants to burn him out for nothing.
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Postby nikku88 » Sun May 15, 2005 11:38 am

I say under cause most fast starters don't keep up their pace all season.
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