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ERA vs. WHIP

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Postby baseballnewb » Sun May 15, 2005 10:05 am

ERA is much more luck based than WHIP. ERA is a small sample size stat. ERA is one of the weakest stats in baseball for judging a players talent, but its a decent stat for simply showing what happened and its a pretty easy stat to follow so it works well for fantasy.
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Postby brock middlebrook » Sun May 15, 2005 10:36 am

about as similar as OBP and runs

correlation, yes, same, not really.
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Postby brock middlebrook » Sun May 15, 2005 10:38 am

baseballnewb wrote:ERA is much more luck based than WHIP. ERA is a small sample size stat. ERA is one of the weakest stats in baseball for judging a players talent, but its a decent stat for simply showing what happened and its a pretty easy stat to follow so it works well for fantasy.


I disagree.

Bottom line, in order to win in baseball, you need to score more runs than the other guys. Keeping guys from crossing home plate directly relates to the ability to win for your team.
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Postby mamorris » Sun May 15, 2005 11:58 am

josebach wrote:
mamorris wrote:...but I think ERA should stay because fantasy baseball, like real baseball, should have an element of luck to it.


ERA is luck stat and WHIP isn't?

So you're saying infield hits are an indication that the pitcher somehow failed?


I never made either of those statements. I think luck affects WHIP almost as much as ERA.
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Postby baseballnewb » Sun May 15, 2005 12:01 pm

Bottom line, in order to win in baseball, you need to score more runs than the other guys. Keeping guys from crossing home plate directly relates to the ability to win for your team.


I agree, except the pitchers talent doesn't translate into ERA, way too much of it is luck. RP lets in 3 runs instead of getting out of it, you get 4 hits in one inning and 0 over the next 7 but let in more runs than someone that scatters 10 hits. A bad play results in 3 runs but on error is charged, etc etc. Yes luck applies to all stats but ER is a much smaller sample size than compare things to total AB's or looking at hits and walks. ERA shows what happens but it does not predict what will happen in the future. Whip, K/9, FB/GB ratio all are better predicters of future success.
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Postby Cooner » Sun May 15, 2005 12:15 pm

First, it's clear that K/BB, OPS, etc etc are much better statistics for evaluating the quality of a player.

HOWEVER, there's an element of "performance" in fantasy baseball, as well as real baseball, that says it doesn't matter how good you are, you must do this feat. For example, it doesn't matter how good of a hitter you are, if you get hit by a pitch, sacrificed to 2nd, get to third on a passed ball, and score on a throwing error by the SS, that run counts just as much for your team to win as a HR. Is there some luck involved? Most certainly. Are there other factors that are extremely important in real baseball that are almost impossible to judge with a statistic? Most certainly- smart base running is one example. The fact is, in real baseball and fantasy baseball, the point is not to have the best player, the point is to win a game.

For instance, Zack Greinke may be one of the better pitchers in the league. He doesn't strike a lot of people out, but he allows very few HRs and his K/BB is very nice. However, he's gotten 9 runs of support in his last 7 starts. Does he say, "Yes! I'm awesome!" No, he says, "Crap, i lost again." Fact is, performing certain tasks, or getting certain stats, are part of the game.

Would a poker player take all luck out of poker if he could? The best ones would say yes, but it really just wouldn't be the same enjoyable game without it.
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Postby josebach » Sun May 15, 2005 2:04 pm

baseballnewb wrote:ERA is much more luck based than WHIP. ERA is a small sample size stat. ERA is one of the weakest stats in baseball for judging a players talent, but its a decent stat for simply showing what happened and its a pretty easy stat to follow so it works well for fantasy.


What are you talking about? How is ERA a small sample size stat? Every inning that's pitched is incorporated.

Luck is a factor in any statistic, but to say ERA is one of the weakest stats... I guess it's amazing how "lucky" all of the Hall of Famers were. Oh, and Randy's low ERA last year... all luck.

This is a ridiculous thread.
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Postby BobbyRoberto » Sun May 15, 2005 11:09 pm

ERA is designed to account for just the runs the pitcher is responsible for allowing, as compared to RA, which would charge the pitcher with runs scored because of errors by the defense. ERA might not do a great job of this because of other factors (hometown scorekeeping, caliber of relievers who come in with the starter's guys on base, etc.) but it's the best we have at the moment.

WHIP isn't a bad category in the way that something like Saves, Wins, or Holds is. A guy can pitch like total crap in a game and still get a Save, Win, or Hold.

For me, Holds is the worst category ever. Consider this hypothetical: a guy comes into a game with a 3-0 lead. He gets an out, then gives up 2 solo homers and walks the bases loaded before being yanked. The score is 3-2 still, so he gets credit for a hold despite pitching like dog poop. The next guy comes in and gets a sacrifice fly and a strikeout, and gets a blown save, even though he pitched so much better than the first guy.

Wins are very abitrary also, where a pitcher can go 5 innings and allow a ton of runs but still get a win because his offense outscores the other team, while another pitcher could toss zeroes all game long and come away with nothing in a 0-0 tie game.

ERA and WHIP are much better categories than Wins, Holds, and Saves. As for them being too similar, I don't think it's a problem.

Sounds like the guy has sour grapes because he's doing poorly in those categories.
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Postby baseballnewb » Mon May 16, 2005 12:42 am

What are you talking about? How is ERA a small sample size stat? Every inning that's pitched is incorporated.


Calculate how much of a difference 1 ER makes over a season ERA, now do the same with WHIP, the same with K/9, the same with HR/9, the same with GB vs FB. A single ER makes a much larger impact than any other stat because of the small sample size.

Next look at hits with runners in scoring position, that is the stat that results in more ER than anything and is almost completly luck based, again a very small sample size stat. All it takes is a small amount of good or bad luck to completely change your ERA, whereis a small amount of luck in any other stat has almost no effect. ERA is totally a small sample size stat.
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Postby bd3521 » Mon May 16, 2005 1:23 am

For the mathmatically (and statistically) challenged:

RJ last year
221 hits+BB (aka WHIP) vs 71 ER's (aka ERA)

Pitchers obviously give up more hits and walks then they do earned runs. Hence ERA is a small "sample size" stat.

But if your Kevin Brown your out of luck either way ;-)
[url]http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm[/url]
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